The economic implications of Dubai crisis on Pakistan

KARACHI - The ongoing Dubai financial crisis is unlikely to affect the local market directly but it can have some negative implications for the real estate market and property business. The said crisis may also hurt the growth momentum of the remittances inflows come from UAE to Pakistan in the days to come. This would arrest the outflow of money by domestic investors into UAE market (mainly in real-estate). It is worth to mention here that the Dubai-based remittances had share of 12pc in FY09). The recent debt crisis of Dubai World, a leading state-owned investment company of the UAE, is being put some psychological pressure on the investors in the wake of potential fallout from Dubai Worlds debt standstill. However, inventors seem to track cues from Asian markets where equity values have suffered heavy declines following the Dubai Worlds debt repayment problem. That said, Pakistan stocks resumed trading on negative note in Tuesdays trading session as KSE index is down by 2pc with low trading volumes. It is pertinent to mention here that amongst the listed stocks, PTCL, Bank Alfalah and UBL have UAE-based sponsors while Adamjee Insurance and cement companies have business exposures in the UAE market. Market analysts do not see any impact of this debt crisis for PTCL and Bank Alfalah. On the other hand, UBL has retail and corporate loan exposures in international markets (mainly UAE) which occupy a share of above 25pc in total loan-book of the bank. UBLs exposure to Dubai World and its entities is $20m. This accounts for only 2pc of the total UAE book and below 0.3pc of the total loan book. A debt standstill by Dubai World could add into infected portfolio of UBL. However, UAE central banks announcement to stand behind the debts owed to foreign banks by Dubai World and Abu Dhabis central bank decision to launch special liquidity scheme for overseas banks has reduced the possibility of default by state-owned Dubai World. Adamjee Insurance has also resumed its UAE business with gross premium of around Rs878m (12pc of companys gross premium) in 9M2009 concentrated in the UAE market. About cement companies, UAE market accounted for nearly 7pc of countrys valued-based export in FY09. In this regard, major exporter to UAE market is Lucky Cement. However, analysts anticipate the likelihood of the next tranche could help in consolidating the investors confidence in Pakistan market. In the absence of other viable investment options, the market will keep attracting the domestic liquidity. Meanwhile, the fundamental recovery would also attract the foreign investment flows. Our preferred stocks are PPL, POL, OGDC, Hubco, Engro, FFBL, UBL, PTCL, DG Khan and Lucky Cement. It must be recalled here that the inflow of remittances in the July-Oct, 2009 period from UAE, amounted to $679.23m as compared to $388.09m in the July-Oct, 2008 period.

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