Zambia to hold roadshows for debut Eurobond this week



JOHANNESBURG  - Zambia, Africa’s biggest copper producer, will hold roadshows for its debut Eurobond in London from tomorrow and in the U.S. next week. Analysts and investors say appetite for the bond, expected to be at least $500 million, will be strong given Zambia’s healthy economic growth and political stability and the relative scarcity of African sovereign paper.“If you are a global investor hungry for yield or a regionally focused investor this has got all the markings of a hot issue,” said Richard Odumodu, head of fixed income at frontier markets boutique Silk Invest.The UK roadshow is scheduled to take place in London on Thursday and Friday, Odumodu said. The U.S. roadshow is due to begin in Los Angeles and San Francisco on Monday before heading to Boston and New York on Tuesday and Wednesday.Barclays and Deutsche Bank are the lead managers.According to a preliminary prospectus obtained by Reuters, Zambia’s over-reliance on copper, the uncertain impact of recent government policies and high levels of unemployment are among the key risks for potential investors in the Eurobond.The southern African country has experienced robust economic growth in the past decade, driven by the mining, agricultural and construction sectors. GDP has grown by an average of 5.7 percent between 2002 and 2010, the prospectus said.The government projects growth of 7 percent in 2012 and an inflation rate of 7 percent, compared to more than 30 percent in 2000.However, the prospectus cited a high dependence on copper production, policies introduced by the one-year-old government of Michael Sata and other factors, as representing “the principal risks inherent in investing” in the Eurobond as they could affect the country’s economy and its ability to repay its debt.Copper exports account for around 30 percent of GDP and 77 percent of total export receipts and a reduction in demand for Zambia’s copper caused by a weakening global economy could adversely impact its economy, the prospectus said.“If Zambia is unable to diversify its economy away from the copper sector there is a risk that a decrease in the production of, or prices for, copper...could significantly reduce Zambia’s foreign exchange earnings and could result in significant trade deficits and lower economic growth,” it said.There was also a risk that government policies, including tightening regulations on the taxation of mining companies and reversing the privatisation of the telecoms firm Zamtel to a Libyan company, “could discourage investment in Zambia,” the document said.Failure to address high levels of poverty and unemployment could pose an additional threat to Zambia’s stability and growth, it added. Unemployment in the country of 14 million is around 15 percent, with youth unemployment as high as 60 percent in urban areas and 80 percent in rural areas, the prospectus said.Zambia is rated B+ by Fitch and Standard & Poor’s, but both agencies have raised concerns about increased economic policy uncertainty since the election of Michael Sata last September.Proceeds from the Eurobond are earmarked for upgrading Zambia’s infrastructure. The landlocked country has just 7,213 kilometers of surfaced roads, compared to 32,900 kilometers which are unsurfaced, according to the prospectus.Odumodu said investors preferred to see sovereign issuers putting money to work rather than using proceeds to cover budget deficits.“The idea of this Eurobond going to fund an infrastructure gap is something that we like to see in sub-Saharan Africa,” he said.“You don’t like to see issuance fund budget deficits.”

ePaper - Nawaiwaqt