India economy slows sharply as slowdown hits

NEW DELHI (AFP) - India's economy grew at its slowest pace in nearly six years in the third quarter as the Asian giant began to feel the full brunt of the deepening global downturn, official data showed Friday. The worse-than-expected 5.3 percent expansion in the three months to December, down from 8.9 percent a year earlier, spurred expectations the central bank will cut interest rates further to boost the flagging economy. "The massive slowdown in growth... has now dismissed speculation India is more resilient in this global turmoil because its economy is more domestically oriented," said Sherman Chan, an economist at Moody's Economy.com. The numbers were grim reading for the Congress-led government, which faces elections by May, and has been eager to spur the economy ahead of the polls. India's government has long said it needs double-digit growth if it is to drag hundreds of millions of its people out of grinding poverty. Growth in Asia's third-largest economy was sharply lower than the 7.6 percent expansion recorded in the second quarter and came in below analysts' forecasts of 6.1pc. Agricultural production, which accounts for nearly 20 percent of gross domestic product and provides a living for two-thirds of Indians, contracted by 2.2 percent compared with 6.9 percent growth in the year-ago period. Manufacturing activity shrank by 0.2pc, down from growth of 8.6pc a year earlier amid flagging domestic and export demand. The government has predicted the economy, which grew by nine percent last year, will expand 7.1 percent this financial year to March, but economists said the latest data meant it would miss the target. "It's not going to pan out," said D.K. Joshi, principal economist at Crisil ratings agency. Most economists expected full-year growth of 6.5 percent to 6.7 percent. But India's Economic Affairs Secretary Ashok Chawla insisted the fourth-quarter would be better and that expansion would "add up to close to seven percent for the year as a whole... We are not pessimistic." The government said the winter wheat crop would be better than normal and various stimulus measures it has announced would help boost growth. But to meet the government's growth target, expansion would "have to accelerate substantially to 7.7 percent in the fourth quarter," noted Chandrajit Banerjee, director general of the Confederation of Indian Industry, calling for more rate cuts to stimulate the economy. With inflation at a 14-month low of 3.56 percent, the bank has ample room to cut rates, economists said. "This will put pressure on the central bank to be more aggressive in rate cuts " they had talked about a downside risk to growth and now we have it," said Joshi. The central bank has already reduced its leading lending rate to commercial banks " the repurchase rate " by 350 basis points to 5.50 percent since October while the government has introduced three stimulus packages in three months to stimulate the economy. Earlier this week, the government cut excise duties to eight percent from 10 percent and lowered the service tax to 10 percent from 12 percent. It also prolonged a cut in value-added tax announced last December. "The full impact of the recession in other parts of the world, especially Europe and Asia, is yet to unfold" and the economy "may feel a further impact in coming months," acting finance minister Pranab Mukherjee said Tuesday. While the government hopes for seven percent growth in the next fiscal year, economists forecast 5.5 percent. The central bank has calculated the effect of the stimulus from higher government spending, tax cuts and interest rate reductions already amounts to around 80 billion dollars. But with India's fiscal deficit ballooning, the government cannot introduce any "big bang" stimulus packages like neighbouring China, economists say, and must rely heavily on interest rate cuts to jumpstart the economy.

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