Militancy, suicidal attacks, bomb blasts, target killings, sectarian strife, ethnic violence and, most recently, the cold blooded murder of people belonging to the shia community, after being hauled off from buses in Kohistan area and almost similar mass murders of Hazaras - shia community - in Balochistan earlier, are not some disjointed or random instances of militancy or sectarianism, but very much part of a systematic and well organised operation. In fact, Pakistan is being subjected to a methodically planned and professionally executed covert (hidden) war.
This covert war has both internal and external dimensions. It cannot be denied that a lot of what is happening is because of our own misdeeds over the years, resulting in the radicalisation of the society. Yet, external interference has played the proverbial role of “adding fuel to the fire”. Let there be no doubt that external manipulation exploiting and aggravating skilfuly internal dissensions has pushed Pakistan to the brink. The debacle of East Pakistan is a classical example of external orchestration of the inner political unrest. A similar situation is taking place again, particularly in Balochistan,
Ever since the US/Isaf forces ousted the pro-Pakistan Taliban government from Afghanistan, and the pro-Indian Northern Alliance dominated the government, India’s notorious intelligence agency, the RAW, has become fully entrenched in the war-torn country. Backed by the Afghan Intelligence Agency and allegedly supported by the Mossad, CIA and others, it is aiding and abetting insurgency in Balochistan, FATA and our urban centres. Their common goal seems to be to internally destabilise Pakistan to its ultimate disintegration. Already, various US think-tanks are discussing the post-disintegration scenario. Lately, a joint US-India study has been initiated for that very purpose.
The RAW (spelled WAR in reverse) was established in 1968 – i.e. after the 1965 war when India that is several times the size of Pakistan was nearly humbled. Realising that open confrontation with Pakistan had proved futile, it seemed to have opted for the “strategy of indirect approach” - to weaken the country from within through covert operations before confronting it with open aggression to deliver it the coup de grâce.
Within three years of RAW’s establishment, we lost East Pakistan through covert operations deftly orchestrated by it. The Agartala Conspiracy was followed by political unrest leading to civil war and militancy by Mukti Bahini (trained and equipped by the RAW) and finally by massive military intervention by India. The diplomatic and media blitz by India ensured international isolation of Pakistan beforehand. Thus, the political turmoil in East Pakistan provided the “opportunity of the (20th) century” to India - as Mr Subramanian put it at the time - to break up Pakistan through covert operations - Spanning political, diplomatic and military dimensions.
The “strategy of the indirect approach” has assumed even greater significance for India ever since Pakistan has acquired nuclear capability, which has virtually nullified its huge advantage of the much larger conventional forces. The covert operation is, therefore, the only viable strategy left for India to harm Pakistan.
Unfortunately, wrong decisions by the “commando” President provided yet another “opportunity of the (21st) century” to India to try to undo the rest of Pakistan by capitalising on the occupation of Afghanistan by its strategic partner, the USA, and with the pro-India (anti-Pakistan) Northern Alliance in the driving seat at Kabul.
What is even more unfortunate is that neither the Government of Pakistan, nor even the armed forces have fully grasped the implications of the covert war, which has been thrust upon us by a cunning enemy. The politicians are reluctant to employ the armed forces in Balochistan and urban areas, like Karachi, for political reasons. While the army that has “burnt its fingers” several times in the past is not willing to get involved on its own. As for the people, they are facing myriad problems in their day-to-day lives to pay much attention to the existential threat creeping upon us, slowly but surely!
Our politicians with limited knowledge of strategic dimensions could be forgiven for not fully comprehending the modus operandi of covert war. Their understanding of the war is only of an open conflict where tanks and aeroplanes clash visibly. Whereas, large-scale and persistent civil disturbances, ethnic/sectarian violence and widespread militancy are all part of the covert war, which we are facing and that is slowly eating into our vitals. The covert war by directly affecting the ordinary citizen and ruining the economy of the country is far more deadly than the short, sharp conventional war where mainly the armed forced bear the brunt.
For the armed forces, however, not to fully grasp the changing patterns of the war and fully appreciate its implications is beyond comprehension. Why are they reluctant to step forward and aggressively counter the covert war that is slowly strangulating the country? After all, it is the primary duty of the armed forces to defend the country against external aggression as well as internal subversion. Article 245 of the Constitution clearly states that the armed forces shall defend Pakistan against external aggression or threat of war (whether overt or covert). Therefore, they are primarily and constitutionally responsible to pro-actively deal with the various manifestations of this hidden war. Indeed, defending the country’s borders and ensuring peace within is the raison d'être of the armed forces.
Our armed forces must realise that the paradigm shift towards covert operations, masterminded and supported from across the western border is posing a far greater threat than the possible threat of overt operations from the east. The possibility of a large-scale, open conventional war has receded because of our nuclear capability. The armed forces should, therefore, equip and train themselves to effectively deal with the challenges of the covert war in Balochistan, FATA, and the urban areas taking due cognisance of the fact that what Pakistan is facing today is clearly beyond the ken and capacity of the police and the para-military forces. It is a full-fledged war through covert means orchestrated by the RAW (and others) based in Afghanistan.
The oft repeated ‘mantra’ by those who say that political solution alone would solve the problem are living in a fool’s paradise. Nowhere in the world, either in the past or present, has an insurgency that is aided and abetted externally been effectively dealt with without simultaneously taking on the militants, who only understand the language of the gun. (Swat was a glaring example of the failure of political negotiations alone - only the subsequent armed intervention brought peace.)
Among the urgent steps that may be considered to effectively deal with the widespread militancy in the country are: Close cooperation among the police, the para-military and the armed forces; streamlining and coordinating their intelligence agencies; establishing interlinked checkposts at suitable locations in the urban centres; establishing ops centres at the federal, provincial and district levels backed by quick reaction forces, including heliborne units for timely reaction. Above all, establishing an anti-RAW org, manned by experienced hands drawn from among the existing civil and military organisations to solely focus on the activities of RAW, to anticipate and pre-empt rather than to react to its nefarious activities and, if necessary, to give it a “dose of its own medicine.”
It is imperative for the armed forces to take appropriate countermeasures on war footing, as there is little time to lose. They cannot afford to sit back and wait for a call “in aid of civil power”, which applies only to peace time conditions. The armed forces must provide the lead and get proactively involved to effectively counter the covert war and act as the catalyst for internal security, and thus ensure peace and prosperity for the country. They must not fail the nation at this critical juncture.
    The writer is a retired air marshal and member of the National Security Forum.
    Email: marshamm@gmail.com