Afghanistan: time to seize the moment

This time Eid message from Mulla Omar was more than a personal communiqué, it was indeed a mission review for his political followers. Message carried a comprehensive analysis of the Afghan conflict. It has also put forward an offer to the international community for being a part of peace effort. Mullah Omar has conveyed that his fighters will not seek to monopolise power when foreign troops withdraw from Afghanistan next year, and the Taliban will try to reach an understanding with the Afghan people for "an inclusive government based on Islamic principles". While at the same time it showed the determination to continue with the armed struggle post 2014, should the foreign forces decide to linger on in any role. “The aim of our contacts and talks with the invaders which are conducted through the Political Office is to put an end to occupation of Afghanistan…No one should perceive that the [Taliban] will relinquish of their lofty religious principles and national interests,” the statement said.
The politico-spiritual leader reiterated his perception about irrelevance of forthcoming Afghan elections.  "As to the deceiving drama under the name of elections 2014, our pious people will not tire themselves out, nor will they participate in it. He said selection in the polls, "de facto, takes place in Washington... participation in such elections is only a waste of time, nothing more".  He opined that these nominal rulers are not elected through the ballots of the people. Rather they are selected as per the discretion of Washington! This assessment is not off the mark. Limited influence the Karzai dispensation has had over the course of events is quite evident and continuation of these political structures is not likely to change the things much.
Message condemned NATO’s plans to keep a small military training and support mission in Afghanistan after 2014 as an encroachment on the country's independence. The Taliban say the difference in numbers and roles means nothing if any foreign forces remain on Afghan soil. The group has often accused the US of seeking permanent Afghan bases, a charge that Americans refute, at least publicly. "The Afghans consider the presence of a small number of invading troops as an encroachment against their independence as they are not willing to accept the presence of thousands of foreign troops…The occupying countries should learn from the bitter experiences of the past 12 years. They should not try their fate once more by prolonging the occupation or by establishing permanent bases," the statement said.  He rejected the idea of dividing Afghanistan between different power players. Though there have been dubious talks about dividing Afghanistan, no one from within Afghanistan have ever demanded it or supported it. Despite numerous divisive currents, pitching Afghans against Afghans, there is solid national consensus about preservation of territorial integrity of Afghanistan. 
If the Taliban gained power they would be at the head of an "Afghan-inclusive government based on Islamic principles…When the occupation ends, reaching an understanding with the Afghans will not be a hard task because, by adhering to and having common principles and culture, the Afghans understand each other better," said the statement. There was also a promise of no retribution attacks if the group achieved political power." This stance shows that Taliban have learnt a lot from their past experiences and they are willing to go an extra mile for achieving meaningful intra-Afghan reconciliation.
The statement repeated a previous call for Taliban fighters to minimise civilian casualties, while it urged Afghan police, soldiers and paramilitary personnel to turn their guns on foreign troops and Afghan government troops cooperating with the coalition forces, and step up attacks on foreign troops to force them out of the country. The (Mulla Omar’s) message indeed encouraged more so-called “green on blue” attacks, wherein Afghan troops turn their weapons on their international counterparts. It added that any such attacker will be welcomed as a hero by the Taliban. These attacks, which spiked in 2012, have eroded trust between Afghan troops and foreign forces.
On the negotiation track, members of the Afghan High Peace Council have disclosed that they’ve held secret talks with the Taliban to try to bring momentum to Doha peace process that has floundered right from the beginning. “There have been individual talks with the Taliban,” said Habibullah Fauzi, a High Peace Council member. “Talks have taken place many times,” he added. Taliban spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid has refuted the claim; he said such statements were a deliberate lie designed to upstage important Eid message. “The High Peace Council wants to keep its office open and money flowing, which is why they are spouting such propaganda,” Mujahid said. “We don’t intend to talk with the puppet Kabul government. We don’t have contact with them, not individual talks, not group talks.”
International intelligence officials have interpreted Mulla Omar’s latest remarks as further indication that the Taliban are struggling with financial woes and losing the propaganda war. “They kind of almost play their hand a little on some of things that they’ve been struggling with,” says an ISAD intelligence official.  Mulla Omar vowed not to use Afghanistan as a base to threaten other countries, which is a key American demand. There is, by now, much evidence for the view that a moderate or pragmatic wing exists in the Taliban, that actively seeks talks and such group has the backing of their top leadership. They share a memory of the civil war, international isolation and have a desire to be part of a government that will get both outside recognition and financial support. These are big objectives and they require sustained talks, with the Americans and not so much with the Afghan High Peace Council.
Meanwhile, the Afghan government is looking into alternative locations for peace talks. Mohammed Ismail Qasimyar, a senior member of Afghanistan’s High Peace Council has recently revealed, “Countries like Saudi Arabia, the [United Arab] Emirates, Turkey, Turkmenistan, have already said they are ready to host such talks…There are other possibilities, but the High Peace Council preference would be to hold them inside [Afghanistan].” The US backs the peace talks, but emphasizes that these must be Afghan-led.
Doha process should be restarted and peace talks pursued at all levels. These are worth pursuing. No matter where and under which brand name the peace process proceeds, the ground reality is that: the Taliban have the initiative, it’s a compulsion for the Americans and Karzai dispensation to go along. With each lost day, Taliban would gain further advantage, and the other parties are poised to be on downslide. It is indeed time to seize the moment.

The writer is a freelance columnist.

The writer is a freelance columnist. Email him kiqbal1234@yahoo.com or follow him on twitter.

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