For a second, let’s focus on what we don’t know. We don’t know where Tahir-ul-Qadri’s political motivation came from or how he became a prominent player in the political game without a single seat in Parliament. We don’t know what Imran Khan’s agenda really is. Is it electoral reform, recount, mid-term election or elimination of corruption? We don’t know whether both marches were simultaneous, independent agitations or a coordinated effort with different faces. We don’t know what the endgame is.
There is just one thing that we do know; that Nawaz has enemies. We know they want Nawaz to resign. We know Nawaz has a rocky relationship with the men in boots. We know Musharraf was tried for treason. We know Geo had a recent spat with the country’s premier intelligence service. And we know the PML-N has dealt with the situation poorly.
The course of Pakistani history has followed a simple narrative; politicians are corrupt, the masses are downtrodden, and when the oppression gets too much, we look for a saviour to deliver us from the tyranny and mindless political squabbles. It seems that a similar pattern is taking shape. On Monday, ISPR spokesperson Asim Bajwa urged “all stakeholders” to solve the matter peacefully as they are in the process of “protecting symbols of state”. Apart from the obvious fact that the military referred to the government, (its employer), as a mere ‘stakeholder’, it has once again emerged as the voice of sanity between parties that seem adamant in destabilizing the country. This was quickly followed by General Raheel Sharif himself urging both sides to solve the matter with haste. Not surprisingly, Tahir-ul-Qadri on Tuesday claimed that “he was never against negotiations”, and although Imran khan stays as belligerent as ever there are caveats emerging in previously unflinching demands.
Is it possible that the military can bail Nawaz out by mediating a compromise? And if so, what is the trade-off Nawaz would have to make? While the popular narrative has been to paint Imran as an ego-fuelled celebrity in search for the prime ministership and Tahir-Ul-Qadri as a violent demagogue looking to jump in on the bandwagon, is it possible they will eventually become irrelevant in a bigger game of the balance of power? From now onwards, the Nawaz government will be about one thing only; survival. Constantly looking over his shoulder would leave him precious little time to implement his agenda.
The question now is, with most parties at his back and the arbiter of legitimacy, the judiciary, still resolutely pro-democracy, will he concede?