The International Republican Institution (IRI) survey of Pakistani voters reveals that the PML-N would garner 32 percent of the vote and the PPP only 14 percent. The Pakistan Tehrik Insaf (PTI) would come second with 18 percent. In the present first-past-the-post system, this three-way split would lead to a massive win for the PML-N, perhaps parallel to its massive majority in 1996, when it won a two-thirds majority. The rise of the PTI has apparently been at the cost of the PPP, and the PPP is clearly suffering from the incumbency factor. The survey does not contradict what appears to be the general sentiment, with the PPP suffering from its failure to address the concerns of the ordinary citizen, while taking corruption to new heights, and allowing economic hardship at the same time, both in inflation and energy loadshedding, not to mention deteriorating law and order.
In the various provinces, the PPP improved in the survey only in Balochistan. That is counter-intuitive, for the PPP government in Balochistan was only recently dismissed over the law and order situation there. At the same time, the increase in the popularity of the PML-N to 49 percent reflects the work put in by the Shahbaz government, and would translate into an increased majority at election time. In Sindh, the PPP has declined in popularity, but the PML-N has not gained commensurately. That the MQM has increased its support indicates that the PPP wish to have it as an election ally is essentially a good and pragmatic decision.
Apart from voting preferences, the survey also asked about attitudes. It should be noted that a majority is opposed a South Punjab province, and also looked at economic issues as crucial, with 32 percent looking at inflation as the country’s biggest problem, and 20 percent had employment. Surveys are no substitutes for elections, and the only true test of voting preferences remains the actual balloting. Only when the general election is held will the survey be validated, but the figures it gives should act as an indicator of the issues on which the campaign will be fought. There is probably no longer enough time for the government to take any action which will reverse its declining popularity, but if it wants to take any step that might help at the moment, it should reverse its foreign policy, which is unpopular among the masses, and which only serves partisan interests, not national.