The first Pakistan: The Next Generation Report, originally launched by the British Council Pakistan in 2009, is debuting its 2013 research today, based on a national survey with five times the sample size of the previous report. In what is supposed to be a youth election, this report gives politicians and policy makers an understanding of the potentially game-changing youth vote.
Among the findings of the report are:
A Pessimistic Generation
In the last Pakistan: The Next Generation Report, pessimism was a worrying trend. In this report, the findings are significantly worse. In 2007 50% of the youth thought the country was heading in the wrong direction, today that figure is 94%. Only 1 in 5 are hoping that their economic position will improve in the next year. Pessimism is becoming a defining trait of this generation, one that holds up across the genders and urban and rural populations.
A Generation Marked By Violence
When the youth were asked about the most important events in their lifetimes, they didn’t point towards a positive event or collective achievement. Rather, it was the earthquake, the floods and the assassination of Benazir Bhutto (which tops the list). More worrying, a quarter of all young people have been directly affected by violence, or witnessed a serious violent event (in rural areas the incidence is twice that of urban areas). In Fata that figure is 62%. 72% of young people do not believe that life is safer for most people in Pakistan compared to the past. In the Global Peace Index, Pakistan ranks 149th of 158 countries.
Growing Without a Safety Net
Since 1947 Pakistan’s population has grown by five times (from 35 million) and by 2060 Pakistan’s population will be 285 million (61% growth). Today only 8 million people are over the age of 65 by 2060 that figure will be 40 million and start rising steeply then on. By the time a baby born today grows old, Pakistanis aged 65 and above will outnumber those under 18. Pakistan could thus become the first country to grow old before it becomes rich. Currently two-thirds of Pakistani children fail to get enough food to grow normally, with one in five being severely stunted. Of the middle class youth 57% worry about their access to consumer goods, 76% to fuels for cars and motorcycles.
It’s the Economy
In the last report the youth mentioned the greatest source of anxiety for them was not terrorism, but insecurity when it came to be fairly dealt with jobs, exams and justice. Now their greatest worry is not terrorism again, but rather rising prices, inflation. Only 10% of the youth feel the country has enough jobs to go around (of the women only 5% feel the same). Overall just one in ten have full-time contracted jobs (in China 40% have it in the same demographic, Pakistan’s contribution to full-time employment is also explained by the fact that 86% of women describe themselves as homemakers).
Approval of Institutions & Democracy
There are very low approval rates for the government, national assembly, provincial governments and assemblies, and for political parties (the lowest). Other institutions: religious, media, military and judiciary have high approval rates, with the sole exception of the police which is unfavourable.
When asked about the best political system for Pakistan:
29% believe in democracy as a system, and the reasons for their preference is economic growth, ensuring access to water, electricity, gas and education.
32% believe in military rule. Those who believe in military rule think it can best provide security, internal and external, and also defend against Pakistan’s foreign enemies.
38% believe in Islamic Shariah because they think it will best advance moral and religious values. They also favour it because they believe it will better religious tolerance and ensure fairness.
A Conservative Generation
64% of the male youth describe themselves as conservative/religious, whereas 75% of women feel the same. Only a quarter of urban young people have an interest in politics. Three quarters of the youth who expressed an opinion in our survey worry about exposure to foreign media, films, music and ideas. Young people from urban areas were most worried about foreign influence. Youth with access to cable TV were less conservative than those who only had access to terrestrial (conversely, terrestrial watchers were more optimistic than cable viewers). Owners of mobile phones are more likely to want to vote, more interested in politics and more likely to believe they can change Pakistan.
Opportunities for Politicians
13 million new first time voters from the survey. 25 million registered voters between the ages of 18 and 29 years of age. Only 40% are certain to vote, whereas 21% are undecided. Anyone who can manage to bring out the undecided’s will have a significant advantage. Just a ten per cent increase in youth turnout would mean an additional 2.5 million more votes on election day, quite significant for marginal constituencies. In Pakistani families across the board, the most educated are those below the age of 30, giving a unique opportunity for parties to address them who may look beyond traditional voting parameters. Most young people believe political parties haven’t done enough to communicate with them. In this election from the survey if politicians are to court the young they will need to reach out to them as a separate bloc, give them a strong economic agenda, address their feelings of insecurity and talk convincingly about values.
The Connected Middle Class: They are 8% of the next generation. Committed to democracy, think corruption is a major issue. They are increasingly looking for opportunities outside Pakistan (a quarter want to emigrate permanently, another quarter would like to live abroad for some time).
Marginalised Rural Labourer: 15% of the next generation, predominantly in unstable work, worried about gas, electricity and water. For them terrorism in not a major issue, jobs and prices are. 80% say they are likely to vote, but their decisions are based on family and landlords.
The Conservative Backbone: 15% of the next generation, mostly urban, highly educated and aspirational. They have a distinct generational identity and believe they can change Pakistan, 98% are proud of it. Skeptical of democracy, more likely to favour Sharia. Value integrity and economic expertise.
Char Divari Housewives: They make up a third of the next generation. Mostly disconnected from the outside world, apart from daytime television. Disengaged from politics, are unsure if they are even on the electoral rolls (70% are in fact on the rolls). Anyone who can reach them politically can potentially secure a big dividend because so many are undecided when it comes to voting, and crucially when it comes to who to vote for.