LAHORE - Statements coming from some important PPP leaders in a particular chronological order and behind-the-scene developments these days indicate that the situation may take a turn for the better or worse in the times ahead.
Former prime minister Syed Yousaf Raza Gilani said at a recent news conference in Karachi that his government had given former president Gen Musharraf a safe exit in 2008 because of an understanding with the establishment.
Claiming that the PML-N was also on board, Mr Gilani said it was unfair on the part of the present government to put the former president on trial on high treason charge.
(The PML-N vehemently denied any such deal. Mr Asif Ali Zardari’s spokesman Senator Farhatullah Babar and some PPP leaders also refuted Mr Gilani’s claim).
A few days later, Mr Zardari supported Mr Imran Khan’s demand for vote recount in some National Assembly constituencies, saying heavens would not fall if the needful was done.
In an apparent reference to Mian Nawaz Sharif’s style of governance, the former president said the former had been elected as prime minister, not a monarch.
On Tuesday, PPP leader Shehla Raza came up with what is nothing short of a bombshell that Mr Zardari is visiting the United States to remind it of its role as a guarantor at the time of the signing of the National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO) that there will be no martial law for 15 years. She said the former president is being given extraordinary protocol and he will hold meetings with important US leaders.
(The PPP spokesman, as he did after Mr Gilani’s above-mentioned statement, denied the Sindh deputy speaker’s assertion as misleading and said the party leadership has taken a serious notice of it).
Whatever the spokesman’s position, does it not sound meaningful that a former prime minister reminded the PML-N of its obligations under the Musharraf exit deal and Mr Zardari has gone to the US to remind it of its obligations under the NRO?
What Shehla Raza has said actually means that there is a threat of martial law in Pakistan and the PPP wants the US should play its role to avert it. (Needless to point out that the NRO was long ago annulled by the Supreme Court after which, as a matter of principle, the US is not supposed to play whatever role Shehla Raza thinks it should as a guarantor).
Is it just a coincidence that Zardari is meeting with the US leaders when Nawaz Sharif is holding talks with the Saudi leadership?
Maybe there is nothing common between what the prime minister and the former president are discussing in the two countries they are visiting at present. But if a report published in an English language newspaper is to be believed, Nawaz Sharif is also seeking Saudi intervention for the improvement of relations between the top intelligence agency of Pakistan and the PML-N government.
The point was mentioned in the story about Mr Sharif’s departure for the kingdom.
(The PML-N government was facing a similar situation during its second tenure. The then Punjab chief minister, who holds the same position now, had visited Washington to seek US assistance to ward off the imminent threat to the government. The State Department had issued a very strong statement in support of the PML-N government and said the US would not tolerate dictatorship in Pakistan. Then information minister Mushahid Hussain, who can interpret diplomatic statements better than even the most seasoned diplomats, told Mr Sharif that the message from Washington means it’s time for the PML-N government to pack up. The government was overthrown shortly thereafter through a military coup).
One can’t say with a degree of certainty whether the present government is on its way out. But something is definitely in the offing. The army is not willing to forget the way its former boss Gen Musharraf has been treated by the government. “The civil-military relations will not normalise as long as the Musharraf issue is not resolved,” said military sources while talking to TheNation.
(The assertion belies the government claims that the civil and military leaderships are on the same page and had ideal relations).
Other political developments are also quite significant. It seems it is being ensured by the relevant quarters that the PML-N and the PTI shouldn’t get closer to each other despite the fact that only in the recent past the prime minister had visited Imran Khan at his Banigala residence. Arsalan Iftikhar’s campaign against the PTI chairman has widened the gulf between the two parties. The PTI leaders believe that the PML-N is behind the slanderous move.
Anti-Imran statements being made by various ministers will also ensure that never should the twain meet again.
This campaign will damage the image of Imran Khan and, indirectly, benefit Tahirul Qadri. The PAT chief is confident that he will succeed in ousting the PML-N government without needing anybody’s support. Every day he holds sessions with people to explain the kind of a state that Pakistan will become after the ‘revolution’.
This is just an analysis of the situation. Nobody knows what tomorrow has in store for the country. Already people say that the only thing predictable about Pakistan’s politics is that it is unpredictable.