THE political landscape of Sindh is undergoing a change these days. Politicians are changing loyalties and joining hands with the parties that in their estimation stand a greater chance of coming to power as a result of the upcoming elections. Many Sindhi leaders are in contact with the PML-N of Mian Nawaz Sharif, while others are making local adjustments.
After the death of Pir Mardan Shah, popularly known as Pir Pagara, his son - who is also called Pir Pagara - is trying to fill the void created by the demise of the octogenarian leader.
Recent political developments indicate that the new Pir Pagara is keeping his doors open for all the factions of Muslim League apparently in an effort to create a united Muslim League. The united party is expected to include the (PML-Functional), PML-Q, PML-Likeminded and the PML-N.
The nationalist parties in Sindh have already gathered under his patronage and recent visits of Sheikh Rashid Ahmed of Awami Muslim League, MQM Senator Babar Ghauri, JUI-F chief Maulana Fazlur Rehman and some others to the ‘Raja House’ show that a grand alliance under Pir Pagara cannot be ruled out.
Many in Sindh say that now what is called the ‘Sindh Card’ is with Pir Pagara and he will use it for the well-being of the masses, to borrow a quote from Imtiaz Shaikh, the Secretary General of the PML-F Sindh.
Even the urban-based party of Altaf Hussain is keeping its options open, clearly meaning that the possibility of parting ways with the PPP is there.
During the past four and a half years, the MQM, under the reconciliation policy of President Asif Ali Zardari, has been a coalition partner of the Bhutto party in Sindh and Islamabad. In the past, the MQM has also worked with the PML-N.
The politically influential families and electables of Sindh are getting closer to Pir Sahib Pagara as the elections are drawing nearer. The PML-Likeminded, led by former chief minister Dr Arbab Ghulam Rahim who has already shaken hands with Mian Nawaz Sharif, has also joined hands with Pir Pagara.
The Arbab group had won three provincial assembly seats in 2008 general elections, when Gen Musharraf was still in power.
As things stand, with the departure of sacked federal minister Sardar Ghous Bux Mehar, his son Sheharyar Mehar, Shirazi brothers of Thatta, the ruling party of the yesteryears, PML-Q, is almost a nonentity in Sindh. Political analysts say that these leaders may ultimately go under the umbrella of Pir Pagara. The Jatoi brothers of Naushehro Feroz are already with the PML-F.
The PML-F is expected to gain some more political support in the days ahead when it holds a public meeting in Hyderabad, scheduled for Dec 14. The party has invited other political outfits to the event.
Although the relations between them have been ‘now on, now off’ in the past, the Chaudhrys of Gujrat are expected to join hands with the new Pir Pagara. Pir Pagara senior used to regard the Chaudhrys as corrupt leaders who had devoured the entire ‘political bakery’. Still, he used to receive them at the Kingri House. On a number of occasions, he stated that he preferred the Chaudhrys to the Sharifs as the latter were totally untrustworthy.
Although the parties get stronger with the joining of more and more people, the new inductions are also not without a price.
Take the example of the PPP. It is facing difficulty in the distribution of party tickets in upper Sindh after new influential have chosen it for their electoral platform. Observers say that after the decision of Mehar of Khangarh, Nasir Shah, Haji Khan Chachar, Aslam Shaikh and Khalid Khan Lund to join the PPP, it will not be easy for the party to decide who should be given ticket for the election and who should be ignored. Whosoever is ignored, will start working against the party.
Analysts are of the view that after the latest political developments, the relations between the PPP and the Dharejo brothers and Mian Abdul Haq of Bharchundi Sharif, who won provincial and national assembly seats, have got strained. The reason: they cannot expect party tickets for the next elections.
Six political heavyweights will be in the run for four seats and it will be difficult for the PPP to accommodate everyone.
There is one national and three provincial assembly seats in Ghotki-Khangarh and Sukkur and for these seats Sardar Ali Gohar Mehar, Ali Muhammad Mehar, Raja Khan Mehar, Sardar Muhammad Bux Mehar, Nasir Shah and Rahim Bux Buzdar will be the intending candidates. There will also be a tug of war between Haji Khan Chachar and Saifullah Dharejo for a party ticket for the Pano Aqil seat of the Sindh Assembly as both are the old contenders for it.
In 2008, the PPP had given party ticket to Sardar Fayyaz Khan Lund against Ali Muhammad Mehar, and his brother Babar Lund contested against Sardar Rahim Bux Bozdar. Interestingly, both the Lund brothers lost. But now that the Mehar group has joined the PPP, there are remote chances the Lund brothers getting tickets.
Keeping in view the changing political landscape, the political observers think that in the coming elections the PPP may lose ground to its opponents.
They say that in the past it was always the Pakistan Muslim League that had filled the vacuum created after the removal of the PPP from power. This happened in 1990, 1997 and 2002.
They are of the opinion that history may repeat itself once again in 2013 and the PML may get a chance to rule the province as all anti-PPP political forces are forging alliances.