Pakistan seeks to exploit US command vacuum

ISLAMABAD (Reuters) - Pakistan is looking to exploit a shake-up in the US command in Afghanistan to bolster its allies within the Taliban and increase its influence over a future Kabul government, analysts say. The strategy, however, relies on bringing the brutal and independent-minded Haqqani network to heel, something many believe is impossible. The incoming US commander, General David Petraeus, does not have a good relationship with Pakistani Chief of Army Staff Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, said Ahmed Rashid, a political analyst, journalist and expert on the Taliban. The army does not trust him and they dont like him, Rashid said. This hiatus is going to be used by both the Afghan government and the Pakistani government to see if they can get something going. In essence, Pakistan is hoping the American command vacuum proves a window of opportunity for Islamabad to deal more directly with Kabul in forcing an accommodation with its militant allies, such as the Haqqani network. This is currently opposed by the United States, but it would grant Pakistan a large measure of influence in Afghanistan, which before the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks was firmly within its sphere of influence and an asset in its old rivalry with India. Pakistan is hoping to establish a reality on the ground before Petraeus fully takes over, said Rashid. I think there will be a review of US policy very quickly as soon as Petraeus arrives and I think these efforts are being made to try and influence that review and put Pakistan in the driving seat, he said. And the Haqqani network and the Taliban is one of the main levers for Pakistan to exert influence. Pakistan is not just prepared but very eager to play a role in bringing peace in Afghanistan, said Rahimullah Yousafzai, an expert on Taliban militancy and Pakistan-Afghanistan affairs. And they definitely have an influence over the Taliban. But if someone believes theyre in their hands, that is incorrect. Leadership of the group has largely passed from the ailing Jalaluddin Haqqani to his son, Sirajuddin, seen by US officials as more radical than his father. The group maintains a powerbase in the Pakistani tribal region of North Waziristan, across the border from Khost. A senior intelligence official in Islamabad said that while Pakistan would like a friendly Afghanistan which many analysts believe a Taliban-dominated government might provide Pakistan would settle for peaceful. We can deal with a hostile Afghanistan as long as it is peaceful, he said. The official was referring to Afghanistans growing relations with India, Rashid scoffed at the idea of Pakistan wanting only a peaceful Afghanistan as propaganda. We have very clear and distinct interests of what we want out of this process, Rashid said. And its not just having a peaceful Afghanistan. Its more than that, certainly. Otherwise we wouldnt be trying so hard.

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