Commendable developments have materialized
By By Air Marshal (Retd) Ayaz Ahmed Khan May 11, 2008 Saudi Arabia with a population of 24,575,000 and
present oil output of nine million barrels a day is a
rich country. After Russia, it has the second largest
oil reserves in the world. Sixty percent of world oil is
in the Middle East, and most of it is under the Saudi desert. Saudi Arabia is hugely benefiting from sky rocketing oil prices. The current years budget surplus of 48 billion dollars reflects a robust economy. But the Saudi economy is dependent on oil, and that makes it vulnerable, because at the rate oil is being consumed, it could run out. Saudi oil also sustains West's industry and economy. If oil ran out, entire world will suffer. It will be a huge set back for Saudi Arabia, because presently its economy is totally oil dependent. Economies of developed countries are dependent on the ME oil, and will face a crisis situation. Saudi Arabia is minting billions from high oil prices, while it is breaking the back of poor countries, which are mostly Muslim.
At the rate Saudi oil is being consumed within the country and outside, it may not last long. Oil does run out as has happened to the oil reserves of the North Sea and Mexico. According to some experts, the rate at which the West and Saudi Arabia are guzzling oil, Saudi oil reserves may not last for more than nine years. Saudi's are consuming oil faster than any other country. Most Saudi's are not worried, because they think they are sitting on a sea of oil. But King Abdullah has taken cognisance of oil being guzzled by oil fired electricity plants, oil refineries, cement and steel mills de-salination water plants, and very high domestic electricity consumption. Saudi culture is highly consumption oriented. Oil guzzling big American vehicles like Hummers, Chevrolets, Fords, Lincons, Cadillacs, Chryslers, Tahoe's and Suburban's clog Saudi roads and highways, literally drink oil. With the Rs 12 per liter petrol, and Rs for a litre of diesel, POL is almost free in Saudi Arabia. Saudi's joke that Japanese cars are for America and American cars are for us. The low cost of electricity encourages Saudi consumers to waste electricity by keeping air conditioners running round the clock. New industries burning huge quantities of oil and gas coming on line will increase oil consumption many fold. The common Saudi has no thought that oil could run out. Using 32 barrels of oil per person, Saudi's are world's biggest oil consumers. Presently out of one hundred barrels produced, twenty-two barrels are consumed at home. In ten years domestic consumption will be 33 barrels out of one hundred barrels produced. Oil has made Saudi Arabia one of the wealthiest nations. There is lack of awareness that most Muslim countries are very poor. Million of Muslims are starving. Some think tanks report youth unemployment is 30% in Saudi Arabia. The Saudi government admits 12%. Saudi young men and women are jobless. Plans are in hand to contain simmering social discontent.
King Abdullah took cognisance of the possibility of oil wells drying up. His government has embarked on plans to industrialize Saudi-Arabia, so that industrial out put, starts sustaining the economy. In 1998 Crown prince Abdullah, now king Abdullah, initiated plans for economic reforms, including liberalization of economy. It was decided to exploit Saudi-Arabia's vast mineral resources, and become exporter of chemicals, aluminium, plastics, steel, cement, fertilizer's, sheet glass and foodstuff. Today Saudi Arabia is not only food self sufficient, but is a food exporter. Over the next twelve years Saudi government plans to spend six hundred billion dollars on industrial and communication infrastructure to sustain massive industrial expansion, to create over one million jobs.
But all the planned industries rely heavily on oil and gas. The West, especially the US is worried that oil gulping Saudi industries, "will slake other countries thirst for oil". John Sfakianakis chief economist of Saudi Investment Bank SABB, an affiliate of HSBC-Hongkong and Shangai Banking Corporation, states that, "Saudi Arabia is turning to the industries that rely on oil-lot of oil." With world oil demand rising sharply from 85 million barrels a day to one hundred million barrels a day within ten years, Saudi industrialization plans are an eye sore for the West, especially for America. Saudi Arab's industrialisation will boost demand for more crude, thereby hurting West's industry and economy.
Saudi-Arabia plans to construct ten aluminium smelters. A big aluminium smelter on the Persian/Arabian gulf coast will consume over sixty thousands oil barrels every day. But each Aluminium smelter creates ten thousand jobs. The ten planned aluminium smelters will consume 7% of current oil production, but will create one hundred thousand jobs – a top priority of the kingdom. According to Western economists, with the planned industrialization, by 2020 the country itself will consume one third of its oil production. But will create 1.3 million new jobs. The oil-based economy failed to cater to massive un-employment in the kingdom, therefore creation of jobs is a top priority. In 2004 there were 3.5 million Sharia graduates without jobs. Tenku Abdur Rehman the Malaysian Prime Minister on an official visit to the kingdom, offered to open seven Malaysian universities to re-educate jobless Sharia graduates in science and technology. Pakistan could have reorganized its education facilities to cater to Saudi Arabia's education requirements. But Saudi's are aware of our poor education standards, lack of discipline among students, absence of academic culture, poor law and order and lack of security in Pakistan. Saudi's are unlikely to accept our generous offer. Assuming that 15% Saudi Youths are unemployed-the Saudi governments industrialization plan makes sense. With so many young people unemployed, the country was faced with social discontent. King Abdullah very wisely has given top priority to employment through re-education and rapid industrialization. The king wants an industrial leap forward, and resources are being allocated for education and Saudization i.e full employment for Saudi men and women. Presently there is a mismatch between Sharia education and industrial job requirements. Saudi youth need technical skills, which Sharia degrees fail to offer. Sharia graduates there fore are being re-educated. We need to do the same in Pakistan. Pakistan has over ten thousand Madrassas churning out "Sharia experts", who are unqualified for technical or other jobs. Joblessnes creates insecurity and desperation. Sermons by extremist Maulvi's drive them towards militancy and finally terrorism. The new elected coalition government needs to study Saudi Arabs education, industrialization and employment plans, and formulate new education and youth employment plans for the Pakistani youth. A rehabilitation plan needs to be prepared for the kids of poor people who unable to feed them are forced by circumstances to push them into Madrassas, where they get indoctrinated into religious extremism. Saudi Arabia is a country Pakistani's respect. We should submit and share our education policy with the Saudi government, with the hope of long term Saudi assistance for the education of the poor in Pakistan.
The Saudi industrialization plans require the already booming petro-chemical sector to utilize natural gas. Plans are in hand to build six huge power plants to increase electricity output from the present 31000 megawatts to 55000 megawatts-roughly equal to that of the United kingdom, which is highly industrialized. But electricity production will consume huge amounts of POL and gas. By 2012 crude oil and gas will fire 60% of Saudi-Arabia's mounting electricity needs.







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