Entangled in energy web

TAPI gas pipeline project, would begin from the Dauletabad gas field (Turkmenistan), and runs through Herat, Kandhar (Afghanistan), Quetta, Multan (Pakistan) and the final destination of the pipeline will be the Indian town of Fazilka, near the border between India and Pakistan. The total length of the pipeline would be 1,680 kilometer will be built and operated by a consortium of national oil companies from the four countries, furthermore the cost of the project was just over 3$billion in 2003; today it is $7.6billion. The pipeline is to begin its operations in 2015, if all the contending issues are to be resolved. The pipeline will transport 33 billion standard cubic meter (scm) gas from the Dauletabad gas field. There will be six compressor stations along the entire length of the pipeline and it will have to be guarded by the states they pass through, apart from the pipeline. The largest stretch will fall to the share of Pakistan, between Quetta and Multan and the Indian border. ADB provided the financial assistance of 1.0$ million for the feasibility study of the project.
Several major risks were proving as impediments in materializing the TAPI project. Security of the pipeline is the most important in this regard, as it passes through the tumultuous region of Afghanistan, where the security situation is far more satisfactory. Turkmenistan requested UN to adopt a new convention guaranteeing pipeline security. The proposal represents the abandonment of fiercely nationalist policy adopted by Niyazove. Turkmenistan's claims of having reserves of more than 25 trillion cubic feet need to certify through an independent auditor. Issues like that of consortium formation, legal and regulatory framework, and issues of gas sales and purchase agreements need to be resolved at earnest. Political discords among the regional and international powers related to US support to TAPI project due to contentious relations with Iran, Pakistan and India's conflicts and disagreements on various issues and Pakistan's constrained relations with Afghanistan are proving as hindrance on the way.
The rival IPI (Iran-Pakistan-India) pipeline, conceptualized in 1989, have the potential to link Persian Gulf with roaring economies of Far East. The proposed pipeline would deliver gas from Assalouyeh in southern Iran through Baluchistan and Sindh provinces of Pakistan and then to India.  This pipeline was smudged and hampered by conflicting issues ranging from security to pricing and finalizing the framework. Length of pipeline runs 1700 miles with 3.2 billion cubic feet per day of Iranian gas to Pakistan and 2.1 billion cubic per day to India by 2011 moreover the cost of the project is nearly 7-8 $billion. To settle the major issues apropos of pricing, Iran demands that clause to revise the gas price every three years to be incorporated into the agreement, which both India and Pakistan disagreed.
If substantiate effectively, then IPI pipeline would also assert and depict independent foreign policies adopted by Pakistan and India on issues of high priority related to energy with certainly wanting to break from the pressure to abort the plan. With sever warning to India against joining the project by the US because of Iran, still it demonstrated sign of thrust to move forward for the project. Even US lured India to have the much-aspired civilian nuclear deal to meet its growing energy demands. However later early this year, when India shows reluctance in the IP project, Pakistan declared that China would become part of the project and convert into (IPC). This proclamation sent quaver to India. While depending on the feasibility of the project, China illustrated keen interest in making this a reality with having necessary expertise and resources. With growing demand at domestic markets soaring, and involvement of China led India to participate with revised sense of urgency.
For India and Pakistan, it is difficult to show the same level of consent on the IPI because of the divergent foreign policies and priorities involved. Pakistan has deep rooted and closer relations with Iran and support on various issues either nuclear or forming a regional energy grid. Pakistan clearly realized that Iran sees the IPI as both a source of valuable foreign exchange as well as warding off the mounting US and other western powers to isolate Iran on its nuclear enrichment foreign policy. For both states, it would be appropriate to understand the emerging reality that in near future the solution to Afghan problem is far from being a reality and TAPI project is less likely to be practically implemented. Even option was propounded that instead of TAPI, a revised TIPI (Turkmenistan-Iran- Pakistan -India) may be plotted. This is actually more feasible and viable solution, with less troubles for the project.
Analysis reveals that on one hand if IPI project carries greater political price for both Pakistan and India than on the other TAPI had been put on hold because of security and sensitive areas on the way. But the fact remains that nearly all roads which provides energy security in Asia lead from Tehran. Iran's ability to act as an energy corridor for the sub-continent and salient importance of Iran is indisputable. In the rapidly intensifying international energy competition, Iran holds the master key to the most staggering political and economic roadblock that impedes the economic growth. The problems wont be solved while isolating Iran but close and competitive environment leads to prosperity of the
Conclusively, the fact remained which must be kept in mind is that TAPI and IPI would be operational in domains of disorder lying between economically upward regions. Afghanistan as reluctantly been controlled but still has the seeds of insurgency expected to be blossoming this summer as illustrated by the attack on President Hamid Karzai with loud and clear message of  " strike any where in the world". On the other hand Pakistan present shaky coalition government has been involved in settling the domestic political instability with paying merge attention to resolve the economic issues. Therefore it can be concluded TAPI and IPI could not become good devices of leverage unless and until Pakistan is to set its house in order and become a normal, democratic and stable state.
The writer works as Assistant Research Officer, Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI).