Market awaits for approaching new lows

"With the corporate result season comes to an end it will be pretty difficult for the market to find new stimulants".
Leading gainers were led by HinoPak Motors and AKF Capital up by Rs27 and Rs45, followed by Central Insurance Sapphire Textiles and Sapphire Fibres, Dadex, Sazgar Engineering and Wah Noble Chemicals, up by Rs3 toRs12.34.
Losses were widespread as most of the leading shares were subjected to lower locks led by Nestle Pakistan and Wyeth Pakistan, off by Rs75 and Rs109.70, respectively.
They were followed by JS Global, JS and Co, Adamjee Insurance, EFU General and Life, IGI, Thal, Attock, National, Pakistan Refinery, Attock Petroleum, Shell Pakistan, Mari Gas, Atlas Honda, Indus Motors, Dawood Hercules, Engro Chemical, BOC Pakistan, Colgate Pakistan and Treet Corporation, which were quoted lower by Rs10.60 to Rs31.82.
Trading volume fell to 181m shares from the previous 201m shares as losers held a strong lead over the gainers at 57 to 279, with 21 shares holding on to the last levels.
Pak PTA led the list of actives, steady by 24 paisa at Rs5.74 on 17m shares followed by Nishat Mills, sharply lower by Rs6.40 at Rs124.20 on 7m shares and MCB Bank, off Rs7.28 at Rs414.60 also on 7m shares.
Arif Habib Securities, off Rs2.97 on 7m shares, Bank Alfalah, lower by Rs1.43 at Rs54.27 on 6m shares, Pakistan Oilfields, off Rs5.20 at Rs409.00 on 5m shares, and Engro Chemical, sharply lower by Rs12.30 at Rs319.50 on 5m shares.
Other actives were led by TRG Pakistan, off Rs1 at Rs7.95 on 7m shares and Lucky Cement, steady by 25 paisa at Rs139.10 on 5m shares. Share values on Tuesday, the second day of the trading week under review remained under pressure and further fell across the board as investors continued to unload long positions to clear their leveraged positions amid panic created by the falling value of the rupee against the dollar. The 100-share index was off 264.29 points at 14,408.84.
But unlike the previous session there were buyers at the dips on selected counters under the lead of oil shares, which allowed a good number of shares to finish well above their initial lows. Some brokers said the current correction may now be over and a strong rebound could follow it even tomorrow.
Although ended well above the session's low of 14,319, at 14,408.84 on active short-covering in the oil shares and some other pivotal, the 100-share index shed another 264.29 points. The total loss during the last two sessions was over 500 points or four per cent, which eroded another Rs80 billion from the market capital at Rs 4420 billion. Its junior partner also fell by 383.16 points at 17,267.15. The market has already under went a needed technical correction during the last six sessions, said a leading broker and indications are that the bulls may be back by tomorrow and put it back on the rails despite no encouraging news from the political front.
The currency market was in a virtual turmoil for the last couple of days as the demand for the dollar on various counts had pushed the rupee to a new low, analysts said.
"As the share and the currency business are co0related in more than one way as an investment toll, it does affect the other at the weak financial moments," they said, adding: "When too chasing a too few dollar, the outcome is logical."
But what seems to have aggravated the situation and hastened the market decline was heavy selling by the foreign investors for the last four consecutive sessions eroding about $7 billion from the market capital at $68.401 billion form the recent peak of $75.500 billion, said leading analyst adding it is a massive erosion in a couple of sessions.
Analysts view the current creeping market crash in various ways. Some say the correction was long overdue in a massively overbought market but it was delayed owing to higher corporate announcements. Some other claims the weak rupee did affect stock trading but not to that extent it has been affecting now, it appears to be the political uncertainty, which seems to be triggering panic selling.
Minus signs again dominated the list under the lead of EFU Life Assurance and Siemens Pakistan, off by Rs30.23 and Rs34, JS Gold, JS & Co, MCB Bank, Adamjee Insurance, EFU Life, Lakson Tobacco, Pakistan Refinery, PECO, HinoPak, Atlas Honda, Dawood Hercules, Ferozsons Lab, AKD Capital, Colgate Pakistan and Shezan International, off by Rs10.35 to Rs29.47.
Unilever Pakistan and Fazal Textiles managed to finish higher by Rs23 and Rs28.99. They were followed by PSO, Saphire Textiles, Sapphire Fibres, Attock Petroleum, Indus Motors, and Engro Chemical, which posted gains ranging from Rs4.25 to Rs10.15. Trading volume showed a modest rise at 198m shares from the previous 181m shares but losers held a strong lead over the gainers at 241 to 86, with 21 holding on to the last levels. The most active list was again topped by Bank of Punjab, off Rs2.69 at Rs52.41 on 8m shares followed by OGDC, lower by Rs1.95 at Rs130.95 on 7m shares, Bank Alfalah, up 63 paisa at Rs54.90 also on 7m shares, D.G. Khan Cement, sharply lower by Rs4.55 at Rs97.95 on 7m shares, Engro Chemical, up Rs6 at Rs325.50 on 6m shares, Arif Habib Securities, lower 99 paisa at Rs180 also on 6m shares, and WorldCall Telecom, lower by 93 paisa at Rs14.77 also on 6m shares. Other actives were led by NIB Bank, easy by 55 paisa at Rs15.40 on 6m shares, Pak PTA, lower 24 paisa at Rs5.50 also on 6m shares and JS Investment off Rs1.39 at Rs103.40 on 6m shares. Stocks on Wednesday recovered from the previous lows as a section of investors covered positions on selected counters under the lead of financial institutions but the rally appears to be too feeble to give definite direction to the market. It was, however, satisfying to note that the market broke the extended bearish spell and recovered under the lead of oil sector triggered by reports of fresh record rise in the crude oil prices above $122 per barrel. The 100-share index recouped 46.45 points at 14,455.29 from the previous massive loss of 1,000 points.
On technical grounds the recessionary spell was also overdone as after having shed 1,000 points or 6.5 per cent in value over the last six sessions, the index needed technical correction based on basic positive fundamentals, analysts said. The interesting feature was that despite the weakness of shares of the Mansha Group, notably MCB bank, the oil share-based rally manifested itself in a bigger way indicating that the worst may be over by now. "But the weakness of its junior partner, which fell modestly about 19 points and the close below the session's high of 14,57.50 reflects that a section of investors was still unsure about the future direction of the market," they added. The volume figure was well below the 200m share mark as investors just readjusted their portfolios here and there but did not opt for fresh buying even at the attractively lower levels, some others said.
"Over the last couple of sessions, the market has received a massive battering owing to a combination of negative factors, including the exit of the foreign investors," said Ch Anwarul Haq adding, "How will it bail itself out from the unfolding political scenario is not fully clear at this stage."
That is perhaps why future outlook appears to be a bit uncertain amid fading sustaining factors, notably the corporate announcements, some others said. Leading gainers were led by Fazal Textiles and Unilever Pakistan, up by Rs25.02 and Rs28.65, followed by Shell Gas, National Refinery, Pakistan Refinery, Pakistan Oilfields, Sitara Chemicals, Shezan International, Clariant Pakistan, Mari Gas, Attock Habib Ltd, and Attock Petroleum, which posted gains ranging from Rs5 to Rs19.95. Siemens Pakistan and EFU General Insurance were prominent among the losers, off Rs50.50 and Rs14.45. They were followed by Pakistan Reinsurance, Al-Ghazi Tractors, Dadex, HinoPak, Sanofi-Aventis, Sapphire Fibres, Shell Pakistan and MCB Bank, which suffered fall ranging from Rs7.05 to Rs11.40. Traded volume fell to 185m shares from the previous 198m shares but gainers held a fair lead over the losers at 175 to 140, with 25 shares holding on to the last levels. D.G. Khan Cement topped the list of actives, steady by 55 paisa at Rs98.50 on 10m shares, followed by Nishat Mills, off Rs3.06 at Rs155.50 on 9m shares, PTCL, up 45 paisa at Rs45.45 on 8m shares, OGDC, up Rs2 at Rs132.95, MCB Bank, sharply lower by Rs11.40 at Rs385.10 on 7m shares, Pakistan Oilfields, higher by Rs7.50 at Rs419 on 7m shares, and Bank of Punjab, firm by Rs2.07 at Rs54.48 also on 7m shares.
Engro Chemicals followed them, higher by Rs4.50 at Rs330 on 6m shares, TRG Pakistan, up 45 paisa at Rs8.10 also on 6m shares and Pervez Securities, higher by 87 paisa at Rs83 on 5m shares. The share index on Thursday, the second last day of the trading week under review again turned lower by about 67 points as investors played on both sides of the fence, selling at the rise and buying at the dips in a highly volatile trading.
But on the other hand, the broader market performed well under the lead of some leading shares, notably shell Pakistan, JS & Co, Engro Chemicals, Attock Refinery and PTCL and active two-way activity.
The market, however, failed to sustain the early buying euphoria generated by the visit of foreigners to the KSE as bears again dominated the trading after mid-session.
An idea of early run-up may well be had from the fact that the  100-share index jumped up by well over 200 points to hit the session's peak of 14,679.44 and indications were that it may close around 14,700 points at the end of the session. But the mid-session witnessed the return of the bears and pushed it as lower as 14,329.95, but late covering purchases on selected counters again pushed it close at 14,388.52 off 66.77 points.
The 30-share free float index fell sharply lower by 196.41 points at 17,052.09.
Analyst Ejaz Butt said fresh heavy unloading in the leading shares of Mansha group, notably MCB Bank, which holds a largest weightage of 11 per cent in the KSE 100-share index followed by Nishat Mills and D. G. Khan Cement seems to be the chief factor behind the market's current stance.
He said below market fixation of GDR of the Lucky Cement around Rs120 as against the market expectations of Rs155 also worked against the overall market owing to lower lock in its share value.
MCB Bank, which shed another Rs20, the total being well over Rs70 after it sold 15 per cent (later five per cent more) shares to the Malaysian Maybank for no apparent bearish reasons appears to be the chief factor behind the market's current volatile trend, they added.
The terribly alarming volatility of the index did not allow investors to follow a set course as no one is sure how would it be have the very next moment as was reflected by a modest turnover figure,  analyst Ch Anwarul Haq said.
"Worries about the economy and rumors of heavy taxation in the new budget are also there but the immediate concern of the market appears to be the absence of leading punters," he added.
However, all was not had with the broader market as plus signs dominated the list under the lead of Fazal Textiles and Azgard Nine (non-voting lot), a combination of textiles, and fertilizer producer, which rose by Rs31.68 and 40 respectively.
They were followed by Central Insurance, Atlas Battery, Shell Pakistan, EFU Life, and JS & Co, which posted gains, ranging from Rs7.49 to 27.76.
EFU General and Colgate Pakistan, off by Rs28 and 28.90, followed by Pakistan Reinsurance Co, Sapphire Textiles, Atlas Honda, Attock Petroleum, National Foods, Shezan International, Packages, AKD Capital, Adamjee Insurance and MCB Bank, which suffered fall, ranging from Rs7 to 19.25.
Trading volume posted a modest rise at 199m shares from the previous 185m shares as gainers held a comfortable lead over the losers at 159 to 140, with 26 shares holding on to the last levels.
The most active list was topped by |PTCL steady by five paisa at Rs45.50 on 20m shares, followed by Nishat Mills, sharply lower by Rs5.77 at Rs109.73 on 12m shares, Engro Chemical, up 60 paisa at Rs330.60 on 8m shares, MCB Bank, sharply lower by Rs19.25 at Rs365.85 also on 8m shares, Arif Habib Securities, lower by Rs1.02 at Rs179.13 on 7m shares, D. G. Khan Cement, off Rs4.50 at Rs94 also on 7m shares, OGDC, easy by 35 paisa at Rs132.60 on 7m shares and Attock Refinery, higher by Rs5.30 at Rs292.05 on 6m shares.
Other actives were led by JS Bank, steady by nine paisa at Rs19.79 on 6m shares, followed by Bank of Punjab, up Rs1.44 at Rs55.92 on 5m shares.