A Russian message to Washington, by way of Kabul

AFGHAN President Hamid Karzai’s office released a letter Monday revealing Russia’s readiness to provide “broad” military assistance to Afghanistan. The letter, written by Russian President Dmitri Medvedev, was Moscow’s response to a request for aid that Karzai had reportedly made in November 2008.
Medvedev’s letter was intentionally vague, simply stating that defence cooperation between Moscow and Kabul would be “effective for both countries” and “for establishing peace in the region”. The letter also calls for Moscow and Kabul to specify the grounds for cooperation moving forward. Though the letter itself didn’t say much, the timing of its release is absolutely critical.
Russia was sending a very deliberate message to Barack Obama on the eve of his inauguration. The top issues on Obama’s foreign policy agenda will involve turning the war around in Afghanistan and dealing with a resurgent Russia. The Russians are essentially signalling to Obama that if he expects any progress on the former, he is going to have to concede quite a lot on the latter.
Whether Russia is working to tear down a pro-Western government in Ukraine or sabotage Europe’s alternative energy projects, trying to reduce the US’ military presence in Central Asia or finding new ways to damage Nato’s credibility, Moscow would much rather Washington stay out of its way - or better yet, facilitate Moscow’s moves - as Prime Minister Vladimir Putin methodically works to tighten the Kremlin’s grip on the former Soviet sphere of influence. The Russians recognise that the war in Afghanistan is not going well for the Americans, and that the US is prepared to invest considerable time and resources for a revised military campaign led by Central Command chief Gen David Petraeus. If the Russians can insert themselves into the Afghanistan equation, where US military interests are currently concentrated, the more leverage Moscow will gain relative to the US on issues deemed vital to Moscow’s interests.
The Russians already have a number of options in Afghanistan. For a variety of reasons, Pakistan has become more and more difficult for the US to rely on as a military supply route into Afghanistan. Consequently, the US military has little choice but to develop an alternative. While there are several variations on the theme, the alternative route likely would traverse Central Asian territory that is under Moscow’s control - if not Russian territory itself. Petraeus is currently on a tour through Central Asia to work out details on this alternate supply line, but if the White House wants Petraeus’ Afghanistan strategy to bear fruit, it will need Russian cooperation, which will not come for free.