Ominous signals from Capitol Hill

It is better to be informed, than being complacent, about the reports emanating from prestigious institutions of United States. Such reports are taken seriously by the policy makers in Washington.
These are carefully deliberated and analysed views, deserving due consideration by Pakistani policy makers to be able to face challenges to national security. If these views go unchallenged, they will seriously impact the consciousness of the Pakistani nation already suffering from economic meltdown, political uncertainty and the agonising sense of insecurity.
The National Intelligence Council of the US Congress in its lengthy report, Global Trends 2025 - Transformed World, comments: The future of Pakistan is a "wild card in considering the trajectory of neighbouring Afghanistan", and The New York Times, goes a step further and predicts, break-up of Pakistan by 2025, and new boundaries to be drawn, as the geo-political necessity, also raises the issue of Pashtunistan:
"If Pakistan is unable to hold together until 2025, a broader coalescence of Pashtun tribes is likely to emerge and act together to erase the Durand Line. This will maximise Pashtun space at the expense of Punjabis in Pakistan and Tajiks and others in Afghanistan. In this context India's strategic plans for Afghanistan would rely on a defector alliance, with Iran to counter the Pashtun/Pro Pakistan forces, in the East."
Without going into any unnecessary argument on the ideas quoted above, I would simply say that such notions are "destined to be doomed" as it has happened in the past thirty years. For example, in 1988 Bush the Senior, declared: "America is a rising nation. I see America as the leader, a unique nation with a special role in the world. This has been called the American century because in it we were the dominant force for good in the world. We saved Europe, cured polio, went to the moon and lit the world with our culture. Now we are on the verge of a new century. I say it will be another American century."
Since then, every US military misadventure in Iraq, Afghanistan and Lebanon, and the present economic and social crises have blown "the myth of US global primacy and pre-eminence" and also the notion of Greater Israel and Expanded Middle East. Similarly the "trajectory of neighbouring Afghanistan" will find its course as soon as the Mother of all Evil - the occupation of Afghanistan is vacated. Historical reality cannot be repudiated; Afghanistan cannot be conquered, no matter how militarily powerful the occupation forces may be. It is true, history repeats itself.
No doubt, during the last thirty years Pakhtun nationalism has emerged as the dominant force, extending from the River Indus to the Hindu Kush mountains - the historical reality and the main determinant of peace paradigm in the region. It is an unalterable reality, beyond the control of Indo-Israel nexus or the Indo-American-Israel alliance.
Its emergence does not threaten the Punjabis, Sindhis or the Balochis. Rather it is a source of strength, unity and integrity of the Pakistani nation. It is not a wishful paradigm, but the emerging contours of a new dynamism - a uniting factor between Pakistan and Afghanistan and realisation of the concept of Strategic Depth, as the emulative effect of betrayals that we have experienced after USA emerged as the sole superpower, ala courtesy Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The Institute of International Studies, USA (IISS) makes the following comments: "That the army 'would step in' despite its reluctance to do so having lost so much prestige during the nine years of Musharraf's rule. President Zardari's presidency may be fragile despite his successful outmanoeuvring of Nawaz Sharif as an immediate political threat and maintaining a strong constitutional position. He is deeply unpopular in Pakistan and has a reputation for corruption and violence, dating back to his time as a minister in his wife's government in 1993. He has also made enemies within the PPP by dismissing many of those who had been close to Bhutto." The fundamental Pakistani army structures have also been weakened."