Implications for Pakistan

China's phenomenal economic growth over the past three decades as a result of its policy of development at home and peace abroad has already catapulted its economy to the first position in Asia and will make it the largest economy in the world in purchasing power parity terms by the year 2020. In dollar terms, China will surpass Japan as the second largest economy in the world by 2025 and will outstrip the US in 2041 to acquire the top position in the world economies.
However, in line with the historical experience of the emerging great powers which gave priority to the building up of economic strength over the acquisition of military strength at the initial stages of their development, China has stuck to a policy of modest growth in its military expenditure in the past three decades. Its military expenditure was reported to be only US$60 billion in 2003 as against US$417 billion for the US in 2003. By the year 2030, China's military expenditure is expected to increase to US$238 billion as against US$808 billion in the case of the US.
Two important conclusions can be drawn from these figures. Firstly, China will acquire a preponderant weight in the world economic structure within the next two to three decades if it is able to maintain its current high growth rates. No important decision regarding global economic issues will be possible without China's concurrence. This development may entail revision of the structure of the global economic institutions and the rules governing the global economy to accommodate China's growing power and interests.
Secondly, although China's military power will increase rapidly in the next two decades or so, the US will remain the dominant military power of the globe during that period.
China's rise as a major economic and military power offers important lessons for Pakistan's leadership and policy makers in guiding the destiny of their nation. Perhaps the most important lesson is that if Pakistan wishes to emerge as a developed and powerful country, it must accord the highest priority to the goal of economic development to which all other national goals should be subordinated in the foreseeable future. The natural corollary of this decision would be to allocate maximum possible resources to economic growth and to limit narrowly the growth of our military expenditure. This would be in line with the policy decision taken by China under the leadership of Deng Xiaoping in 1978 and implemented skilfully in the subsequent years.
The decision to accord the highest priority to the goal of economic growth in terms of allocation of resources and limit the military expenditure would be sustainable only if we pursue a low-risk foreign policy to avoid the danger of a major armed conflict by defusing tensions and adopting CBM's in our relations with India, engaging it in talks for the resolution of outstanding disputes, developing mutually beneficial cooperation with it and avoiding Kargil-type adventures.