Breaking out of the vicious circle

After almost nine years of dark authoritarian rule we celebrated on August 14 an Independence Day, under a democratic government. The countdown has begun. The Zardari-Nawaz latest meeting yielded the consensus to get rid of Musharraf and have the judges restored.

The question is no longer ‘if’ Musharraf will go but ‘when’ will he exit or be pushed out and ‘how’. Any self-respecting state office holder would have by now called it a day when all the federating units’ elected houses had placed on record their dislike for him and demanded his removal.

The real question is, what next? Not only in terms of who succeeds him but how will the system work after him? Will the coalition continue or will the old animosities or rivalries rise to the surface? Particularly, if Zardari again backtracks on his commitment to restore the judges or makes the restoration conditional on certain counts.

With Musharraf factor no longer bothering him â€" he indeed owes so much to the ex-general, his very freedom because of the deal negotiated by late Benazir Bhutto â€" will he now exercise restraint and not revert to his old ways of throwing his weight around for personal interests?

What kind of checks and balances there will be if he succeeds in placing his own man in the presidency assuming that he himself would not embrace the high office? If the coalition breaks what kind of centre-province relations shall we see? Especially the relationship between Lahore and Islamabad.

A straw in the wind shows the direction. Rehman Malik’s abortive attempt to postpone elections to keep the Sharif brothers out speaks for itself. It is unthinkable that he did it on his own. Manzoor Wattoo’s induction and elevation is another pointer. Wattoo had been used earlier too to serve anti-Sharif interests. Taseer is yet another reminder of the possibilities of unwholesome manoeuvrings. (And there are court cases relating to disqualification of Nawaz and Shahbaz)

Let us however be optimistic and hope for less unsettling prospects. Much of course will depend on Zardari’s conduct and PML-N’s tolerance threshold. Zardari at best may muddle through. Also consider the formidable issues which have to be dealt with urgently.

Luckily the army is headed by a man who would like to keep it off politics and let the civilian government manage national affairs.

Do however the new civilian rulers have the capacity, sagacity, understanding and integrity needed to come to grips with the internal and external challenges? Will the party leaders evolve a frame of mind which accommodates differing points of view and forge workable consensus on various issues?