A report on the world
By M.A. Niazi November 27, 2008 The US National Intelligence Council's report, Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World has created the same interest as it used to, with its quadrennial reports designed to coincide with the beginning of the new presidential term. The NIC is very much a US government body, and it reports to the head of the CIA, and was founded in 1979. Its origins are in organisations that existed to present intelligence estimates. Since it acts as an apex body, it is paid a lot of attention, as representing the thinking of 'official' Washington.
The latest report contains one new dimension. It sees conflicts developing over resources. It naturally postulates a shortage of those resources coming first, though it does see that shortage as the result of population growth and the developing of new economies. But perhaps more importantly, it sees the future as a transition to a multipolar world, and a reduction of American dominance. Among the future poles, it sees India as an emerging power, along with China and Russia. In further bad news for future American governments, it also predicts the growing effects of global warming manifesting themselves in growing food shortages.
This throws two challenges to Pakistani planners. First, are they to adopt this view, or present an alternative? In the unlikely event of there being any alternative, it will be within government, for the resources for such an exercise are probably not available here, nor is the government used to conducting its business in the glare of publicity.
Second, if they adopt this view, do they engage in their own policy review? If the USA is not going to remain the dominant sole superpower that it has been ever since the disintegration of the USSR, will it be as profitable for Pakistan to attach itself as vigorously to the American camp as it has done at present? It is not just diplomatic circles that must consider this question, but the military, which has always obtained support from the USA for its periodic take overs.




