Japan under Aso

LDP is now pinning great hopes in Aso in the up-coming general elections. He has to make many popular and even unpopular decisions that include structural economic reforms and how to support the US War On Terror with Japanese resources and commitments in the Indian Ocean under the OEF-MIO as part of US mission in Afghanistan. Speaking to UN General Assembly session in New York on September 26, he vowed to keep the OEF-MIO mission. His two immediate predecessors, however, could not handle this issue and their popularity had quickly plummeted that eventually led them toward resignations. Reforming the economy would be a difficult task for Aso as Japan has been hard-hit by global recession, led by Japan's strongest economic partner, the United States.

Personality traits of a leader also cannot be ignored. Aso is known as an outspoken and blunt leader. He has a tendency of making controversial statements with regard to China, Taiwan issue, nuclear and military issue, forced-labour during the war, Yasukuni Shrine, Burakumin, Jews, global warming, and a number of others. It has to be seen whether Aso is going to mend ties with China or going to see it as a 'threat to Japan'. Some of the ministers included in Aso's Cabinet such as Finance Minister, Shoichi Nakagawa, and Transport Minister, Nariaki Nakayama, are known as China's bashers.

For Japan's close neighbours, Aso is termed as a 'pugnacious nationalist'. Critics say that as foreign minister under Koizumi and Abe, Aso soured ties with both of Japan's neighbours, China and South Korea, by praising the 'war-time colonial achievements' and 'justifying war atrocities' of Japan in that region. The rising nationalism in Japan has been causing disturbances with neighbouring Asian countries. Aso is also known for his distaste against Communism, extreme right-wing tendencies, and firm support for US-Japan alliance. It has to be seen within months as to how Aso will translate such thinking into policy-oriented actions.

Moreover, following a fundamental shift with regard to Japan's nuclear policy by supporting one-time waiver to US-India nuclear deal at Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), which gave a severe blow to anti-nuclear principles of Japan, Aso is nearing a final word about Japan's acquiring of nuclear power. Acquiring nuclear power under a belligerent nationalist leadership becomes relatively easier.

More interestingly, Aso is the first Catholic prime minister of the country, and in that region, except the Philippines, there is no Christian country. One has to see whether or not Christian faith affiliations affect the state craftsmanship of the new Japanese leader, something never realised before in Japan's foreign relations. In sum, pragmatism of Aso depends on how he tackles vital and sensitive issues with Japan's neighbours, toeing alliance with the United States, deciding nuclear option, and introducing structural economic reforms in the stagnant Japanese economy.

The writer is a research fellow (East Asia) at the Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI)