Adjustment inevitable on 20 seats

LAHORE-Out of total 50 Senate seats up for grabs on March 4, there are 20 such seats, none of which can be won by any single party on the basis of its numerical strength without making adjustment with other parties.
Keeping in view the numerical strength of different parties in the national assembly and the provincial assemblies, the result of 30 Senate seats is quite clear even before the election, but 20 are still open for contest, and the major beneficiary in this battle would be the party with maximum bargaining power.
Interestingly, the role of smaller parties, even with numerical strength not crossing the double figure, and which cannot win a single seat on their own, has become all the more important in winning these seats. The reason being that their support to any party could prove decisive to secure some seats.
Out of these 20 seats which have forced the parties to make adjustments, three each are in Punjab and Sindh, while six each exist in NWFP and Balochistan. The remaining two happen to be in the National Assembly.
It is to be noted that out of 11 Senate seats, which are going to be filled from each province during upcoming Senate polls, seven are general in nature, while two each have been reserved for women and technocrats.
In Punjab, where 47 votes are required to get one general seat, and 185 each for one seat of women and technocrat. the PML-N, with actual strength of 170, but having additional support of some members of PML-Q forward block, is all set to win four general seats, and one each from seats reserved for women and technocrats, followed by the PPP, which can lay claim only on two general seats in the province. The PML-Q, with its initial strength of 84, but after having lost some 50 members after creation of forward block, is not in a position to win even a single seat from Punjab on its own.
Similarly, PPP will have to rely mainly on the PML-Q support to grab one women seat and another one reserved for technocrats. The PML-Q can win only one seat in alliance with the PPP, as latter's 13 extra votes can pave the way for success of Ch Shujaat Hussain, the sole Q league candidate so far from Punjab. The PML-Q, in turn, can cast all its first priority votes in favour of PPP candidate on reserved seats from women and technocrat. Four independents in Punjab Assembly are also likely to side with PPP in Senate election. Hence, three seats are open in Punjab for adjustment.
With the only exception of PML-N, which does not require support from any other party to win six seats, other parties need to make adjustments to secure some seats. The PPP will mainly rely on PML-Q to secure one woman and one seat of technocrat.
The PPP has fielded its secretary general Jehangir Badr, Salahuddin Dogar from Multan and Aurangzeb Burki from Lahore on general seats, while Sughra Imam from Jhang and Kazim Khan from Lahore would contest on women and technocrat seats respectively. In case of general seats, the first priority vote will, however, go to Badr and Salahuddin, supposed to be the main contestants.
In Sindh, PPP and MQM will have to rely on smaller parties for support to get some extra seats. The PPP with original strength of 93 members in Sindh Assembly has six clear seats, as opposed to MQM, which can win only two seats on its own, and a third one in alliance with PPP. MQM has got 51 seats in Sindh Assembly. Here, 22 votes are needed to get one general seat and 83 each are required for one woman and technocrat seat. Other parties, which include: PML-Q, ANP, PML-F and NPP, have 22 votes collectively in Sindh Assembly, and their support would be decisive in case of three unclear seats, though all these are mostly likely to vote in favour of PPP candidates.
In Sindh, PPP will have five extra first priority votes for general seats and 10 extra votes in respect of women and technocrat seats, which could go to MQM candidates. The MQM with its seven first priority extra votes for general seats, requires 32 votes of first priority from PPP and smaller parties to get one seat out of four reserved for women and technocrats. The PPP and MQM can reinforce each other in this way on the three unclear seats in Sindh Assembly.
In NWFP, PPP with its actual strength of 30, is short of two votes to win two general seats and 32 votes to obtain either one women or a technocrat seat. In the frontier province, 16 votes would make one general seat, while 62 each will be required for woman and technocrat seats. The ANP, the single largest party in NWFP assembly, having 48 legislators to its side, can easily win three general seats out of seven without any party's support, but it requires 14 first priority votes to win two out of four seats reserved for women and technocrats. The smaller political groups in NWFP include: MMA, PML-N, PML-Q and PPP (S), which have 14, nine, six and six votes respectively. Together, they can get two general seats. Here, six Senate seats are still open for contest, forcing all parties to make adjustments.
In Balochistan, where PML-Q is the single largest party with 19 members, the seats would be evenly divided among different parties. Though PPP has only 12 members of its own in Balochistan Assembly, it will also be having the support of 12 independents and four legislators of ANP. The BNP and NP, having seven and one member respectively will have to make a choice between PPP and the MPL-Q. Six seats are open to adjustment here also.
For two seats meant for the federal capital in National Assembly, and where 170 votes are needed to get one seat, no party is in a position to get even one seat on its own. Here, the contest will be on two seats. The ruling alliance is likely to win all the seats, as PML-N with 91 members is most likely to stay out of contest, through it may field its candidates just to compete a formality.