While the PPP would also get the chance to accommodate over 50 of its potential candidates in the upcoming elections, the PML-N would be the main beneficiary of the possible split between the two parties who were coalition partners until a week back.
Given the results of 2008 elections and the existing political conditions, it could be safely assumed that the PPP and PML-Q may lose at least 24 National Assembly seats to the PML-N, which, otherwise, could be secured by fielding joint candidates.
If the alliance remains intact, the two parties would be making seat adjustments in atleast 139 National Assembly and over 100 Provincial Assembly constituencies in Punjab.
The PPP won 48 National Assembly seats from Punjab while 29 of its candidates secured second position.
The PML-Q had won 27 NA seats in 2008 general elections, while 35 of its candidates came at number two position. If the agreement between the two parties is adhered to in the coming elections, PPP will have to refuse tickets to some 62 of its potential candidates in constituencies where PML-Q candidates were either winner or runner up in the last elections.
A break-up of the above figures shows that in 27 NA constituencies won by PML-Q in the previous elections, PPP will have to sacrifice at least 17 potential candidates who were runner up in the last polls, while in 35 constituencies, where PML-Q candidates stood second, the latter will have problems in 12 constituencies where its candidates had performed better in the last elections.
In case the two parties fail to keep the alliance intact, they would be doing so at the cost of at least 24 NA seats which may go to the PML-N which got 63 NA seats (general) from Punjab in the last elections.
Here is a brief account of these 24 constituencies which the two parties may lose to the PML-N if they don’t make seat adjustments.
NA-87 Jhang- Ghulam Bibi Bharwana of PML-Q had won this seat securing 63515 votes. She had defeated Syeda Sughra Imam of PPP who obtained 55621 votes.
Now, Ms Bharwana has joined the PML-N. The PPP and PML-Q together can grab this seat by fielding a joint candidate. But in the presence of a PML-Q candidate, the seat would go to the PML-N.
NA-156 Khanewal- Raza Hayat Hiraj of PML-Q had won this seat in 2008 polls, but now he is planning to join the PML-N. Syed Fakhar Imam of PPP stood second securing 58271 votes as against 71381 of Hiraj. This seat may go to the PML-N if the two parties don’t come up with a joint candidate.
NA-158 Khanewal- Pir Aslam Bodla of PML-Q (57777 votes) had defeated Haider Zaman Qureshi of PPP by a small margin of around 1000 votes. Bodla has no joined the PML-N. If the PML-Q fields its candidate here, PML-N candidate would be the beneficiary.
NA-157 Khanewal- Hamid Yar Hiraj of PML-Q was the winner with 58819 votes in the last elections. Syed Faisal Imam of PPP with 19756 votes was the runner up. There are reports that Hiraj may also join the PML-N just before the elections. NA-163 Sahiwal-IV-Nauman Langriyal of PML-Q won the seat with 39864 votes by defeating Begum Shahnaz of PPP who got 37986 votes.
NA-93.(TT-Singh) -Junaid Anwaar Ch of PML-N with 84061 votes had won this seat. Kashif Ashfaq of PML-Q with 64287 votes stood second while Hafeez-Ullah Ishaq of PPP secured 17994 votes. Both parties can snatch this seat from PML-N if the major parties retain their respective vote banks.
NA-101 (Gujranwala)- Iftikhar Ahmad Cheema of PML-N won this seat in last election securing 71792 votes, but PPP and PML-Q may defeat Nawaz party’s candidate here if the voting trends of previous election continue to prevail. Hamid Nasir Chattha, then a PML-Q candidate was the runner up, but he has now left the party.
NA-112-Sialkot- Rana Andul Sattar of PML-N was the winner with 92182 votes. Ch.Shujat Hussain with 42713 votes was runner up while Lt.Col (Retd) Sultan Sikandar Ghumman of PPP had secured 29477 votes. NA-114 (Sialkot) Zahid Hamid of PML-N had won this seat with 62362 votes in 2008 elections. Zahid Hamid of PML-Q was the runner up while Ghulam Abbas of PPP with 55797 votes was at number three position. The two parties can also win this seat by fielding a joint candidate.
NA-133 Sheikhupura- Javid Latif of PML-N had won from here securing 44784 votes while Ch.Saeed Virk of PML-Q was the runner up with 28005 votes. Mushtaq Awan of PPP got 16228 votes. The PML-Q may win the seat as the PML-N vote is less than the combined votes of the PPP and PML-Q.
NA-136 Nankana Sahib-cum-Sheikhupura- PML-N candidate Bilal Virk won the seat securing 49641 votes. Tariq Shah of PML-Q got 39371 while Ch.Tawakkal-Ullah of PPP secured 24911 votes. PML-Q candidate may emerge victorious from this constituency on the basis of above said considerations.
NA-138 Kasur- Though Rao Mazhar of PML-N had won the seat bagging 58832 votes, but Sardar Tufail of PML-Q with 39986 votes at that time can defeat his rival with the help 30630 votes of PPP candidate Tariq Hakam Ali.
NA-160 Sahiwal-I- Ch.Nauraiz Shakoor Khan of PML-Q if awarded the ticket again can win the seat against PML-N candidate if PPP voters also support him. Syed Imran Shah of PML-N had won the seat obtaining 59373 votes in 2008 polls.
NA-182 Layyah- Syed Saqlain Bukhari of PML-N was the winner with 75910 votes in previous election. Malik Niaz Jakhar of PML-Q with 52108 votes can grab the seat with the PPP’s support whose candidate Syed Faqeer Shah got 41328 votes.
NA-58 Attock- Ch. Parvez Elahi of PML-Q won the seat in 2008 polls secuing 70743 votes while Sardar Shahnawaz of PPP who got 50354 votes and Malik Sohail Khan of PML-N got 59726 votes.
NA-65 Sargodha- Mahar Khaliq Yar Khan Lak of PPP with 53257 votes lost 2008 election with a narrow margin against Ch Ghiaz Ahmad Mela of PML-Q who got 53518 votes. Mohsin Shah Nawaz Ranjah of PML-N got 41655 votes.
NA-67 Sargodha-IV-Dr.Zulfiqar Ali Bhatti of PPP got 66392 votes, but lost to Ch Anwar Ali Cheema of PML-Q who obtained 83594 votes.
NA-91 Jhang- Attaullah of PPP who got 65253 votes as against 75803 of Muhammad Mehboob Sultan of PML-Q, the winner.
NA-94 T.T.Singh-III-Haider Ali Khan Kharal of PPP with 59348 votes but lost to Riaz Fatiyana of PML-Q who secured 63444 votes.
NA-154 Lodhran-I Mirza Muhammad Nasir Baig got 79611 votes in last elections. Saddique Baluch of PML-Q won the seat securing 81983 votes. NA-171 D.G.Khan-I - Khawaja Mudassir Mehmood of PPP with 19221 votes lost to Khawaja Sheeraz Mehmood of PML-Q (39628 votes) in last election. Mudassar has now joined the PTI.
NA-174 Sardar Jafar Leghari of PML-Q with 50440 votes had then defeated PPP candidate.
NA-181 Layyah- Ch Altaf Hussain of PPP with 46149 votes got defeated from Sardar Bahadar Ahmad Khan Seehar of PML-Q who got 58797 votes.
NA-188 Bahawalnagar- Shaukat Ali Joya of PPP with 44861 votes lost to Akhtar Khadim of PML-Q in last elections, who bagged 52981 votes.