ISLAMABAD   -  The federal government has upward revised the provi­sional GDP growth rate for the FY2023-24 from the earlier 2.38 percent to 2.52 percent, however the GDP’s estimated target of 3.5 percent for the previous fiscal year was still missed. The 110th meeting of the National Accounts Com­mittee (NAC) held on Monday further downward revised GDP growth of PDM government during FY2022-23 to -0.22 per­cent from -0.21%. Initially, -0.17 percent growth was approved for the PDM government.

The National Accounts Com­mittee (NAC), which met with the secretary Planning, Devel­opment and Special Initiatives in chair, approved the revised quarterly GDP growth rates for Q1, Q2, Q3 and fresh esti­mates of Q4 during FY2023-24 and updated annual growth rates for 2022-23 (revised) and 2023-24 (provisional).

Against the estimated target of 3.5 percent, the NAC ap­proved the provisional growth of GDP at 2.52 percent for the FY2023-24. The committee ap­proved the revised first, second and third quarter estimates of 2023-24. Overall GDP for Q1, Q2 and Q3 for FY 2023-24 has witnessed a revised growth of 2.69%, 1.97% and 2.36% as compared to 2.71%, 1.79% and 2.09% presented in 109th meeting of the NAC respective­ly. While the revised growth rates in agriculture during Q1 improved to 8.64 percent from 8.59 percent and Q2 to 6.12 percent from 5.83 percent have improved, the growth in Q3 has slightly declined from 3.94 per­cent to 3.92 percent.

The industrial activities have posted downward revisions in all three quarters i.e. from -2.44 percent to -2.66 percent in Q1, from 0.09 percent to -1.15 percent in Q2, and from 3.84 percent to 2.83 percent in Q3 mainly due to downward revi­sions in annual benchmarks of electricity, gas, water supply, and construction industries. While the Q1 growth in servic­es has remained stable at 2.03 percent vs. 2.02 percent, both Q2 (from 0.75 percent to 1.33 percent) and Q3 (from 0.83 percent to 1.60 percent) have witnessed upward revisions due to improvements in annual benchmarks in wholesale & re­tail trade (WRT), transportation & storage, and information & communication industries.

The economy has posted a stable growth of 3.07 percent during Q4 of FY2023-24, the NAC noted. The growth in agri­culture, industry and services stands at 6.76 percent, -3.59 percent and 3.69 percent re­spectively. During Q4, crops have posted a double-digit growth of 14.03 percent. The growth in important crops stands at 26.98 percent mainly due to wheat (31.58 M.T) and partly due to low base effect of corresponding quarter i.e. -7.93 percent during Q4 of FY 2022-23. Due to decline in fruits, Q4 growth in other crops is negative i.e. -1.53 percent as compared to -0.64 percent in last year. While livestock has grown at 3.98 percent from 4.31 percent in Q4, a high-base effect of 15.12 percent has re­sulted into negative growth of 0.35 percent in forestry. De­spite a positive growth in large-scale manufacturing (4.19 per­cent from -19.5 percent), the remaining components of the industry i.e. mining & quar­rying -5.32 percent from 1.22 percent, electricity, gas and water supply -35.57 percent from 9.15% and construction -0.47 percent from -20.46 per­cent have registered negative growth rates during Q4.

Although growth rates in finance and insurance -2.55 percent and public administra­tion and social security -0.18 percent, the overall growth in services is 3.69 percent dur­ing Q4 2023-24 due to whole­sale & retail trade 4.79 per­cent, transportation & storage 2.11 percent, information and communication 7.95 percent, education 9.04 percent, hu­man health & social work ac­tivities 5.86 percent and other private services 3.38 percent. The committee also approved the updated revised growth during FY2022-23 at -0.22 per­cent, which was estimated at -0.21 percent in the previous meeting. In the updated esti­mates, agriculture has slightly declined from 2.27 percent to 2.21 percent, the industry im­proved to -3.70 percent from -3.74 percent and services -0.02 percent from -0.01 percent have remained stable. Further, the committee also approved the updated provisional growth of GDP at 2.52 percent during FY2023-24 based on improved data from the sources as com­pared to 2.38 percent estimated in the previous meeting. The updated growth rates in agri­culture, industry and services are 6.36 percent, -1.15 percent and 2.15 percent respectively. The healthy growth of agricul­ture is mainly due to double-digit growth in important crops i.e. 17.02 percent, which was 16.82 percent in previous meet­ing on account of improvement in wheat from 31.438 to 31.583 MT. While the growth in other crops has declined from 0.90 percent to -1.20 percent, the livestock has improved from 3.89 percent to 4.47 percent due to decrease in inputs.

In the updated estimates for 2023-24, industry has declined by -1.15 percent against 1.21 percent presented in the pre­vious NAC meeting. There is a downward revision in mining & quarrying from 4.85 percent to 3.47 percent because of de­crease in gas -2.22 percent and coal -2.10 percent. Large scale manufacturing, which is based on Quantum Index of Manufac­turing (QIM), has improved to 0.91 percent (July-June QIM) from 0.07 percent (July-March QIM) due to increase in food from +1.69 percent to +1.73 percent, wearing apparel from +5.41 percent to +8.24 percent, and coke & petroleum from +4.85 percent to +9.81 per­cent. The decline in electricity, gas and water supply indus­try has accelerated by -23.05 percent from -10.55 percent because of decrease in output of WAPDA and Companies, KE and Gas (SNGPL). In the up­dated estimates, construction industry has declined by -1.47 percent as compared to 5.86 percent estimated in the previ­ous meeting due to increase in construction-related expendi­tures in the public sector.

The updated growth in ser­vices is 2.15 percent as com­pared to 1.21 percent estimat­ed in previous estimates. There are major positive changes in WRT 3.39 percent from 0.32 percent due to increase in LSM & imports, transport & storage 1.91 percent from 1.19 percent due to railways, KPT, PIA & CAA, information & communi­cation 0.30 percent from -3.02 percent due to IT exports. How­ever, growth in some industries has declined e.g. finance & in­surance -10.67 percent vs. 9.64 percent, public administration and social security -7.26 per­cent from -5.25 percent, educa­tion 8.55% from10.30 percent and human health and social work 5.55 percent from 6.80 percent. Other private ser­vices remained stable at 3.61 percent from 3.58 percent in previous estimates. The com­mittee also approved the intro­duction of quarterly estimates of net taxes, GDP, net primary income, and gross national income (GNI) in the National Statistical System of Pakistan, thereby paving the way for the quarterization of the expendi­ture side of the economy.