Setting the stage; Kashmir, Ladakh and World War III

Despite the advice of Indian advisors to PM Modi to not take on China, Modi undertook a venture against China and brought embarrassment to India with heavy casualties on the eastern Ladakh border. The general public in India feels that PM Modi owes an explanation to his Lok Sabha and the public as to why he went against the advice to not attack China.
Modi is known for his abrupt and unwise moves like earlier orders to scrap the autonomous status of Indian Illegally Occupied Kashmir (IIOK) and Ladakh and declared it a part of India. He also brought embarrassment to his country after the failure of his surgical strikes on Pakistan and got back a humiliated IAF pilot in return. PM Modi is on record having stated earlier that CEPC does not suit India. Obviously, he meant to inflict and obstruct the CEPC route via Gilgit-Baltistan (GB). Defence analysts are of the view that on the directions of his masters, he attacked eastern Ladakh to engage China in the mountains and then attack GB to cut off the CEPC route, but he had to change the plan after receiving a proper and unforgettable thrashing of his soldiers on the Chinese border and sensing the great unity between China and Pakistan; he could face both China’s and Pakistan’s armies on its triangle borders. PM Modi is under great pressure from the West to create a warzone with China to achieve larger designs against China and Pakistan. PM Modi first lost his credibility in his own country by destroying its economy, hate-mongering, and promulgating highly discriminatory anti-Muslims laws and supporting RSS. He has now lost his face by losing against China in the mountains. I always say that the West wants to stage World War III (WW-III) from South Asia and they have found a senseless implementer in PM Modi. History is witness to the fact that American-instigated wars have always failed in the past, as famous American writer Mr Peter Ullman has beautifully summed up his experiences as under:
“The fundamental factors that ensured failure in using military power were consistent regardless of the party in power. In the first instance, presidents and their administrations lacked sufficient knowledge and understanding of the conditions in which force was to be used. Second, the reasons for going to war were manufactured and proved to be wrong. Third, presidents lacked the experience and judgment that led to flawed assumptions and decisions. Fourth, “group-think” too often dominated decisions. And finally, “expert” advice was ignored or rejected.”
The above few sentences contain the real truth of the history of American remote-controlled wars. It looks like the US once again has chosen a partner namely PM Modi whose vision is limited only to RSS and the Hindutva syndrome. The world now stands divided into groups which can be differentiated from the group of China, Russia and Pakistan, with strong allies, whereas the other group has emerged under the influence of the US, India, Israel, and those countries where the US has a stronghold. I had predicted these groups in my article titled, “A defeated Modi and peace in South Asia” which appeared in this paper on July 10 this year and the relevant extract is as under;
“In the meantime, India is also playing dirty and does not want peace in Afghanistan. In the emerging situation, there is likely a gulf between Russia and the US, in which Russia will be seen closer to China. The West and the US chose Indian PM Narendra Modi with low intelligence capabilities who easily fell in their trap against China, which PM Modi realised for the first time when he had to ditch the Blue Dot Network, which was aimed at shifting investors from China to India. But Modi was not allowed by the Indian elite and opposition to provide such a big cost in terms of land and logistics for the US in this anti-China project.”
The United States has formulated its ill-advised war strategy and its top priority to have oil and other supplies blocked to China via the South China Sea, whereas it has already succeeded in bringing countries around the South China Sea on one page to follow the US. These countries include Japan, Philippines, Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Brunei, and Australia against China. The most recent defence agreement between India and Australia for using each other’s islands is another indication of a joint operation against China if needed in the Indian Ocean.
India has been asked now by the US to close the Strait of Malacca for Chinese ships using the Indian navy, as most of China’s trade is through the Straits of Malacca, and 80 percent of oil imported by China sails through this route. Closing this route will force China to totally depend on only Gwadar for its trade. This is one of the reasons that the US and India are against CPEC/Gwadar, as it provides an alternate route to supply line to China. It is important to note that the idea of CEPC was conceived basically to cut the long route supply to China via the Indian Ocean. This was a wise decision by China and Pakistan to bring this project in action. In response to the US-Indian designs of blocking the supplies the Chinse leadership has been also forced to formulate a policy to counter this unjustifiable aggression on China. If India chooses the option to block the Strait of Malacca to seize the supply to China, then China will not hesitate to exercise its option to occupy the Indian state of Sikkim and the Siliguri corridor which is a lifeline for seven important Indian states; Assam, Nagaland, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Manipur and Tripura. It will automatically seize internal supplies and it is bound to generate uncontrollable unrest within India. This act of China will seize the internal distribution within India; will India take this risk? India also knows the risks/outcomes of blocking supplies to China and is weighing its options.
Let us see the Indian decision in this very crucial matter which can ignite WW-III. India under PM Modi is not going to digest the humiliation of its soldiers by Chinese troops in the Galwan Valley of East Ladakh. According to reports India has already started its proxy war with China and has reenergised the old Tibet card. India has strategised now to promote and support the Dalai Lama all over the world which will likely be supported in the West and the UN. On the other hand, China has played a smart game by taking Iran into its camp and as a result, Iran has cancelled the Chabahar port project with India. Most recently, China has offered Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries the option to trade oil in their own currencies instead of in dollars, but the Gulf may not agree to this proposal because of strong US influence on the ruling elite of this region. This will allow China to start buying oil from Iran and Russia instead of Saudi Arabia. China buys billions of dollars’ worth of oil from Saudi Arabia whereas Iran has already picked the opportunity and has offered to supply oil to China at half the price.
The world must not forget that Israel is watching as a third party and it may jump in it once all these countries are made weak like in WW-I. Let us not forget that India has already accommodated Israel to use all of its defence and hardware and the US is India’s preferred defence partner. If war begins, then expect Israel to play its last role to convert it into a victory for the US. In the given situation, Pakistan as a nuclear state cannot remain isolated if this war erupts and will have no choice except to be on the side of China. Pakistan is the only country at this point of time which can perhaps avert this war and General Qamar Javed Bajwa can play his role; who is highly respected by almost all the expected participants of this emerging war. He may try to engage them on an anti-war roundtable conference on an urgent basis. I hope General Bajwa will take the initiative to contribute to the peace of this world as modern diplomacy is more dependent on defence strategy.
Note: Opinions expressed are solely my own and not necessarily to reflect the views or opinions of my party.

The writer is a PPP Senator, former Interior Minister of Pakistan, and Chairman of think tank “Global Eye” and Senate Standing Committee on Interior. 

He can be reached at:, Twitter @Senrehmanmalik

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