Stranded in an imposed war, Ukraine’s fate looks tragic. Years down the lane, some Oscar nominee or Cannes winner director might make a movie on how the West abandoned its “key” NATO ally. By that time perhaps, the world might not look the same and NATO might already have lost its influence in the wake of the tragedy that struck Ukraine in February 2022. It’s a different world today. The Ukraine crisis has revealed the limitations of the West’s power. Not just that, the Gaza war has simultaneously exposed the hypocrisy of the West-led UN multilateralism.
Russia’s gains are countless, not to mention the revival of the glimpses of Soviet power and legacy. Russia is coming out of the war stronger than before and one wonders what became of the decisive and uncontested US victory in the Cold War and the very celebrated “End of History.” Also a humble realisation for the West and particularly the US that no civilization, no matter how supreme, lasts for eternity; especially not at the behest of deadly wars in less privileged regions of the world. Having provoked Russia into military action in Ukraine, NATO and the West seem to be losing appetite for this war. Distracted by another war front – the Gaza war, and questioned by pools of people who happen to be crucial vote banks, governments in the West are losing moral grounds for the war-mongering that has plagued the world just because the powerful had interests to protect.
Russia has survived the economic shocks of sanctions and is posing a clear competition along with China in the BRICS bloc. An alternate financial system is just the beginning. As for the war, its military-industrial complex is ramping up production while the country remains firmly pro-Putin. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian side is plagued by a lack of armaments, morale, and manpower. With Gaza taking centre stage, and Sahel Africa being contested between Russian PMCs and France, Ukraine is now on the back burner.
The high ground lost already, officials in the US hint at some face-saving, status quo peace deal. However, the question is, will Russia agree? Having a tactical edge, it will come with its own set of demands on the table and that is exactly where a waning US and NATO influence will make it to the news. While Ukraine considers increased conscription, down to 25 years, perhaps it is time to sue for peace instead of inviting Russia’s wrath further.
