ISLAMABAD - Two-thirds of a joint session of the Senate and the National Assembly is required for an impeachment to go through i.e 295 legislators out of a college of 442. The first step of the process is going to be a cakewalk. "Not less than half of the total membership of either House", which stands at 171 in the National Assembly, is going to move a resolution to impeach the President. Not a problem for the coalition's 237 MNAs. The Speaker shall then transmit a notice to the President within three days. She will then summon (after not less than 7 days or more than 14) a joint session of both the Senate and the National Assembly. The joint sitting can then impeach the President if they have more than two thirds of the total membership. The quadrangular alliance has a total of 237 seats in the National Assembly. Throw in the seat each that the BNP-Awami and the National People's Party are going to bring to the table and there'll be 239 MNAs voting for impeachment. The Senate is going to be a bit dodgy. The quadrangular alliance has 34 out of the 100 Senators that constitute the upper house. Interestingly, whereas the JUI has the least MNAs of the coalition, it has the largest number of Senators; 12, to the PPP's 10. Count the Jama'at-e-Islami and the JUI-S, and the MMA has 18 Senators. The earlier criticized decision of including "Musharraf's B-team" in the coalition can be seen in perspective now. Add to the coalition's 34 the three Senators from PkMAP, two from BNP-Awami and one from JWP and the upper house will have 40 Senators confirmed in favour of impeachment. That's a total of 279 legislators, still 16 short of the required two thirds. Here is where the independents come in. The National Assembly has 18 and the Senate 12 independents. The coalition would have to woo these. Ten of the independent Senators are already in alliance with government benches, three of these through an alliance with the JUI-F. As is the case in such situations, someone, somewhere is going to be on the lookout for a quick buck. This could be in terms of key appointments and the like. In other words, sitting governments are usually better placed to win over decisive independents. If the Presidential camp manages to reign in more of the independents, it would be a definitive comment on the question of who is actually running the country. There is also the Makhdoom Factor. In order to pre-empt any possible attempt by marginalized forces within the PPP to damage the motion, a bit of appeasement might be tried. The rumour mills talk of Makhdoon Amin Fahim being assured of being the coalition's future presidential candidate. He has, in any case, gone on record for being opposed to the impeachment. Meanwhile, there is a forward block within the PML in the Senate that needs to be looked into. An estimated eight Senators just might swing the other way. There is much at stake here. If an impeachment resolution, if ever attempted, fails, it would legitimize the Presidency of Pervez Musharraf. Which is still better than what the 1962 Constitution had stipulated for failed Presidential impeachments: all those moving the resolution would lose their seats.