The Pahalgam incident and the subsequent Indo-Pakistan clash have left massive paradigm shifts in the geopolitical, geostrategic and technological domains in its wake. A very brief, albeit fierce, high-tech, multidomain slugfest ensued which not only asserted Pakistan’s military and diplomatic superiority, reaffirmed deterrence at the strategic and operational levels, but also recalibrated the regional power calculus and strategic balance. A new, competing centre of power has clearly emerged in the process!
PM Modi has been roundly berated and criticised by Indians of all persuasions and others for his incompetent handling of affairs with Pakistan and the region. India was left militarily defeated, diplomatically isolated in the region and friendless beyond it. Unrelenting diplomatic soirées remained fruitless. India and its military faltered at all levels of policy, strategy, operational strategy and tactics. How could the Group of Five — PM Modi, Rajnath Singh, Amit Shah, S. Jaishankar and Ajit Doval — really believe that Pakistan would just absorb the Indian aggression against its civilians, regardless of the accusations, and would not respond? Or that it would be so overwhelmed and cowed by the audacity and ferocity of the attack that it would just collapse, concede and accept Indian hegemony, meekly? It borders on the delusional! The Indian military’s plans against Pakistan were even more bewildering. Neither the plans nor their execution was exemplary. The military had neither a distinct end state/strategic objective in mind nor any clear ways and means to attain it. It appeared that the plan had not factored in Pakistan’s responses logically. Their hypotheses were apparently formulated to validate their own self-serving, predetermined strategic and operational assumptions. They were clearly not very realistic. Did they not expect Pakistan to retaliate? And why not? They clearly failed to appreciate and plan for the worst-case scenario — a fierce, swift, unrelenting, overwhelming, decisive, multidomain response from the Pakistan Armed Forces! They had neither foreseen it nor planned or prepared for it. Consequently, they were simply flummoxed and unsurprisingly outmanoeuvred by the Pakistan Armed Forces. The PAF achieved air superiority and forced the IAF to be literally grounded for the better part of the conflict. It sought safety at long distances from the LOC/working boundary/international border. The Indian military sank into a debilitating operational paralysis. Period. Critically, India was at a complete loss to bring the clash, one that it had initiated itself, to a favourable closure. It thus felt compelled to ask President Trump to intercede, save face and mediate a ceasefire!
The much-vaunted Indian military, reinforced by the post-Balakot inductions of the redoubtable Rafales, deadly, supersonic BrahMos missiles and the supposedly indomitable S-400 ABM system amongst other force multipliers, failed to bludgeon nuclear Pakistan into submission. It did not even get the upper hand in combat. Indian pretensions of becoming the regional hegemon and the designated net security provider thus came to nought. Conversely, it was Pakistan and its formidable Armed Forces that established their superiority, in full view of and acknowledgement by the world. The Indians themselves are now sheepishly verifying Pakistani “claims and kills”! Apparently, PM Modi and his coterie of political allies/advisers have now come to the conclusion that Pakistan cannot be overcome militarily. Therefore, an indirect approach has been resorted to — holding the IWT in abeyance, weaponising water and reinvigorating sponsored terrorism through Afghanistan and Iran. However, this policy holds within itself the seeds of large-scale mutually assured destruction of both belligerents, South Asia and far beyond.
On the one hand, India presents itself as the major power, the undisputed hegemon in the region, yet on the other it has failed miserably to impose its will or assert itself on Pakistan or elsewhere in the region. In frustration, PM Modi has launched a frenzied political blitzkrieg countrywide to “pick up the pieces”, so to say. However, his policies continue to be an unfathomable paradox. They are a sorry mixture of contradictions further complicated by the senseless, endless, misplaced arrogance and hubris of his approach. The hysterical Indian media further intensifies it. India’s strategic autonomy suffered a massive blow when President Trump not only brokered a ceasefire between the two belligerents but also got it promptly enforced. It nullified India’s stance on Kashmir (no mediation), its strategic autonomy (freedom of action) and its non-equation/hyphenation with Pakistan. Furthermore, the re-hyphenation of India and Pakistan has slotted India as a subcontinental or, at best, a South Asian power. Its sphere of influence is seen as seriously circumscribed. Its real, effective strategic reach (not ranges of its missiles etc.) is now questionable. The limitations of its military capacities and capabilities to play a decisive, meaningful role at the bilateral, regional and extra-regional levels, let alone at the larger global level, have been fully exposed. The yawning chasm between its real power potential and its strategic ambitions and objectives was never more vivid and clear. The limits of its powers have yet again been laid bare. Much to its horror, it might have been cut to size, in regional, extra-regional and global terms too. The geostrategic and geopolitical dynamics of the region are in an agitated state of flux and are bound to stabilise albeit with fresher paradigms and imperatives!
This (non)performance by the Indian military raises questions on India’s regional and global stature and its position and role as a strategic ally of the US. If India has been unable to subdue Pakistan alone, how will it fare against China or an even more ominous Sino-Pakistan alliance? How will that affect the US’s grand strategy for the Asia-Pacific? Can India be entrusted with independent tasks against China? Ominously, will it be that critical chink in the QUAD’s armour?
Imran Malik
The writer is a retired brigadier of the Pakistan Army. He can be reached at im.k846@gmail.com and tweets @K846Im.