Sarah Khan - The sacred month of Ramadan witnessed an unprecedented development on the heels of frenetic diplomatic activity as the Saudi Arabian and Iranian foreign ministers spoke by phone and marked the commencement of holy month.
This is phenomenal since Middle East was gripped by bloody Cold War between two regional behemoths and Dilip Hiro in his work ‘Cold War in Islamic World’ rightly concluded that the protracted cold war between Riyadh and Tehran has, inadvertently, replicated the pattern of the US-Soviet Cold War. Hinting eagerness of normalization on both sides, the Saudi Arabian foreign ministry apprised on Twitter that the two ministers agreed to hold a bilateral meeting soon, to pave the way for the reopening of embassies and consulates between the two countries. Pakistan stands to be the colossal beneficiary of the surprise Chinese-brokered rapprochement announced on March 10 that serves as harbinger of new chapter in Middle East.
The quintessential regional foes Iran and Saudi Arabia have supported rival sides in several theaters of war across the world. This incessant proxy strife had sectarian undertones which exacerbated sectarian faultlines in Pakistan over the years. The prospects of Pakistan’s entangling in any Middle Eastern conflict will also diminish, particularly the catastrophic Yemen war. Not long ago, back in 2015, Pakistan faced an immensely tough choice of military involvement in the Saudi-led offensive code named Operation Decisive Storm against Houthi rebels in Yemen or exercising neutrality.
The then Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif travelled to Islamabad to urge Pakistan’s leaders to reject the Saudi request. Reprimanding Pakistan, UAE’s minister of state for foreign affairs Anwar Gargash accused Pakistan of burgeoning bonhomie with Iran at a time when Gulf nations faced an existential confrontation. Pakistan’s decision also threatened to derail its most valuable alliance with brotherly country Saudi Arabia. The detente between Saudi Arabia and Iran has the potential to unleash an economic renaissance in Pakistan. This de-escalation and diplomacy will enable China to expand the scale and scope of China Pakistan Economic Corridor by cajoling Saudi and Iranian investments.
China paved way for Iran to be part of flagship project CPEC back in 2021 when it inked 25 year strategic partnership with Tehran with an ambition to make investments in banking, telecommunications, ports, railways, health care and information technology. China has also long envisaged Gwadar and Chabahar as sister ports and India’s unceremonious exit from a Chabahar railway project has bolstered Chinese massive investment plan in Iranian ports which envisions to buttress maritime trade network across Eurasian shipping lanes. Saudi Arabia’s multi-billion-dollar deal for an oil refinery project in deep port city Gwadar depicts an opportunity to bolster China’s String of Pearls from Southeast Asia to the Middle East. A joint venture between Pakistan and the United Arab Emirates government of setting up the new Khalifa Refinery Project – a refinery with the capacity of 400,000 barrels per day – in coastal province of Balochistan transforms Pakistan into trade and logistic hub.
The Saudi-Iranian détente would foster speedy materialization of these breakthrough projects with enormous energy dividends for Pakistan. Pakistan also has huge stake in preventing regional security situation from descending into chaos as Middle East is fertile breeding ground for terror proxies and ultimately Pakistan will also bear the brunt of trans-national terror outfits thriving in an unstable Middle East. Pakistan also closely dodged getting pulled into the internecine Shia-Sunni power squabbles across the Middle East. United States Institute of Peace noted that as sectarian violence plagued Pakistan, approximately 2,300 died in Pakistan’s four main provinces between 2007 and 2013 and at least 1,500 deaths in the former Federally Administered Tribal Areas. Reflecting the horrors of sectarian tyranny, Kim Ghattas in her work ‘Black Wave’ raises potent question; “What happened to us?”
The question haunts the Arab and Muslim world. We repeat it like a mantra. You will hear it from Iran to Syria, from Saudi Arabia to Pakistan’. The geopolitical drama led former allies to use religious conservatism for battle of regional supremacy that unraveled socio-cultural fabric across the Muslim world. This divisive religious fault line inflicted debilitating blow to idea of inclusive Muslim majority Pakistan by sowing seeds of identity crisis. Iran-Saudi reconciliation ushers an opportunity to eradicate the hydra-headed scourge of sectarian militancy.
Improved security landscape would also serve as harbinger of more foreign investments in Pakistan. Chinese multi-pronged charm offensive is breathing manifestation of rapidly transforming world order. Pakistan has always remained indispensable regional player in Middle East and its diplomatic efforts catalyzed normalization process. Iran is Pakistan’s geographical reality while Saudi Arabia is ideological and economic reality. Over the years, Pakistan spearheaded myriad efforts of mediation between two regional heavyweights and strived to maintain a delicate balancing act with Shiite majority Iran and Sunni majority Saudi Arabia.
The Chinese brokered ‘deal of the century’ bestows magnanimous opportunities not only to Pakistan but also entire Muslim world. OIC, the political powerhouse of Islamic world has long remained hostage to Iran-Saudi rivalry but now it can be rejuvenated to play proactive role in spotlighting Kashmir and Palestine cause. CPEC has the potential to be internationalized with dynamic Saudi-Iranian participation. India has once again had its regional strategic ambitions thwarted and Pakistan stands to reap benefits of this much-cherished diplomatic moment.
