COVID-19 – Using facts and information

To take care of others, one needs to be aware of facts and real-time evidence. Calculations suggest that one among 200 or 300 or 600 people infected with corona died. This is calculated from battle zones such as the Netherlands, Italy, Spain, US, France, UK etc. This means if we have 200 or 300 patients, there is a possibility that two may go in critical condition. Treatment or a vaccine will surely change the scenario in the time to come. On the other hand, the presence of corona antibodies is proof that the person was infected and surely would have been the reason of its onward transmission. A study indicated that 5.6 percent in Los Angeles and 32 percent (every third person) in Massachusetts have antibodies. A report reveals that 11 percent antibodies in Stockholm and 3 percent antibodies in Netherlands were found upon screening of donated blood last week. This number will surely be higher as antibodies appear on detection limit after a couple of days of hosting the virus. Different reports and different studies connect the dots of prevalence of asymptomatic and pre symptomatic transmission. Transmission is seen to be 50 to 85 times higher in different studies than the figures available. Comorbidities in deaths are found up to 90 percent where complications or associated diseases like hypertension, obesity, respiratory disorders, diabetes mellitus, and renal diseases contribute. Age group, sex, weight and somewhere ethnicity verifies the assumptions with regard to mortality. Not everyone is in danger. A rough scientific calculation estimates that every tenth person in Pakistan will be naturally immune against COVID-19. The existence of community spread is a clear signal that practices adopted all over the world cannot guarantee zero transmission and one may be subject to infection even if he is following all the precautions. In this scenario, more understanding is required to make strategy efficient and to reduce unreasonable, immature and non-scientific burdens on the society.

The highest uncertainty is associated with critical defects in prioritising the subject on the road of progress. How much science is powerful, how much is helpless, how much was ready to respond and how fast is it acquiring lessons? One can see the screaming aftermath in response to a tiny (virus) life that lives in a place (cell or bacteria) which cannot even be seen by the naked eye. We know there was a novel virus that entered humans in Wuhan, primarily targeted lungs, succeeded in damaging the older population or those with complicated heart, respiratory, kidney diseases on a much greater scale than others. The development of a diagnostic kit to identify virus victims was the first building block towards human success. Sharing information for genetic sequencing of the virus was another responsible contribution that helped other countries to develop a testing kit quickly, well before the virus emerged in their areas.

We have a lot of bullets in the shape of chemical drugs that have been developed in response to infections. Unfortunately, they are not effective for this virus because firing blindly may not help every time. This is another area for future learning in response to epidemiology. A disease-care system, instead of a healthcare system seems to have collapsed in terms of the amount of expectations sketched in the library of science and marked in the human mind. Framing of enhanced regulations for the authorisation of biological drugs to control commercial biasness in presenting clinical evidence seems a self-created mountain in its development. i.e. monoclonal antibodies. Dishonesty in science, proved to be an intellectual and physical barrier and got stuck in its own net. The development of vaccine for prevention is more complex and challenging. The inherent risks may be more horrible than the disease and generations have to bear consequences, if something goes wrong. To determine safety, a lot of work is required and there is heavy responsibility on the shoulders of regulators.

With the passage of time and as more and more real time data becomes available, we will be able to get a clearer picture of this pandemic and potential outcomes. Keeping our lifestyle on healthy and safe modes, we need to know the life of airborne particles in air that may come in contact with our nose. Everyone has to calculate the exposure area, air pattern and air change rate of that area. As much as its probability is low, it will guarantee protection from uncertainty of communicable diseases like COVID-19. Keep striving to know that what you don’t know and rely on information that verifies truth with reason of how you know it. It is absolutely critical for the state to conduct studies all around the country to assess the presence of antibodies and estimating its ability to bring life back on the road once more.

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