Emerging regional equation

Political uncertainty is probably the most permanent thing in Pakistan's political landscape mauled by the conspiracy theorists. That has given little breathing space to the political governments. More importantly, no one has any clue how this uncertainty persists and being sustained and who is benefiting out of it. The bashing the PPP government and Zardari received from US media along with some critical and hostile statements from US top functionaries could be one reason for this lingering uncertainty and confusion good enough to keep the democratic government under pressure. Like in the past the last week was quite tough for the political circles both in Lahore and Islamabad. Rumours of an impending change were all over the place. In the local media stories that were carried predicted doomsday scenario, giving as little time to the PPP government as up to July to pass the coming federal budget from the parliament. Thereafter a new order will be introduced in the country on the pattern of Bangladesh with technocrats calling the shots says the report. Before that Nawaz Sharif remained in the print as being the new choice and pick of the forces that matter in Pakistan. The frequent visits of US and Western diplomats to Raiwind Farm of Nawaz Sharif lent credence to an emergence of a new political understanding between the Establishment and PML (N). It is all nerve shattering stuff for the people and politician alike, good enough even to pull the rug from the under feet of any govt in power. The political leaders who are out of the present political system or parliament lend their ears more to such gossip. Interestingly when all this bizarre talk swirls around all the power centres exhibited more harmony and closeness than before, thereby hardly suggesting any change in the offing. Amid this uncertainty and confusion President Zardari started his visit to the US. As such all eyes that included the PPP supporters and detractors were fixed on the visit and its outcome. Most surprisingly, so far very little has come out of the three-nation summit, presided over by President Obama himself. The start of the visit was quite auspicious for Zardari. The moment he set foot on US soil, the Congress received the much-talked about Lugar-Biden Bill seeking to provide $1.5 billion aid to Pakistan annually. Before that the bill was put on hold for one reason or the other. Tabling the bill in the congress on the arrival of President Zardari was a good gesture from the US government, reassuring its cooperation for the PPP govt. At the press conference with US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton the body language was quite positive from all sides. The statement of Secretary Clinton that in future the US govt will closely work with Pakistan and Afghanistan to avoid collateral damage was quite encouraging for the country. In Pakistan US drone attacks is a big problem for the weak PPP government finding it hard to defend them before the general public and ever hostile TV channels. This assurance coincided with reports in the US media that US government was considering to revise its drone policy. One could note the mistrust of the past between the US and Pakistan on the one hand and then between Pakistan and Afghanistan on the other being replaced by a renewed commitment to fight against terror. The ground for this change of heart was prepared even before Zardari started his visit. The government started a military operation in the Malakund Division. Later, Prime Minister in his address to the nation expressed his government's resolve to crush the militants. After the PM speech we witnessed a grand operation in Swat. All these developments were received well in the US with government and military leadership fulfilling one of US longstanding demands. The visit has a couple of important aspects. First, the Zardari governmemt has been relying heavily on the economic aid promised by the US but was not coming for one reason or the other. The Zardari's entire programme for the country and that of FATA, creating a new force for the tribal areas and provinces to fight terror and acquisition of modern weaponry for the Pakistan military all depends solely on the US aid. Without this aid it is next to impossible to deliver on promises the PPP leadership made with the people at the time of elections. After the visit the chances of quick aid coming to Pakistan have increased a lot with US Congress already approving $1.9 billion aid for Pakistan on fast track. On personal level, the visit turned out to be a boon for President Zardari, who is under pressure and feeling insecure for sometime. The statements from President Obama and other US functionaries assuring him US full support for the democratic government in Pakistan must be music for his ears. It seems that Zardari emerged as a person with whom US leaders would like to deal with in future on security issues apart from the top military leadership. But what is more important from our long-term interests is what regional equation emerges after this visit. The peace and stability in the region will depend upon this very question. So far not much has been shared with people of Pakistan. The people want to know what role US has been assigning to India, being its strategic ally now, in the war against terror. More important, how the US government seeks to bring Pakistan and India closer. E-mail: nadeemsyed@nation.com.pk

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