As the clock ticks and the Afghan peace process moves ahead, Afghan people, who have suffered tremendous losses in this long war of agonizing pain and misery, look forward to an end to the conflict and its permanent settlement. Meanwhile the US and its coalition sits back and calculates the cost of their longest war in modern history; more than one trillion dollars spent since 2002,loss of thousands of soldiers and officers,20 US veterans committing suicide every day, more than 200,000 PTSD(Post Traumatic Stress Disorder) cases in veterans and situation in Afghanistan back to where they started.
No sane military strategist would recommend reinforcing a failure, which is why President Trump has been wiser than his generals in the Pentagon and has pushed the military to look for a political solution and a face saving exit. Pakistan has played her role in bringing the Taliban to the negotiating table and the arduous process of peace has started. All of Afghanistan’s neighbours have yearned for peace, after all no one wants war on its borders, these include, Iran, Central Asian Republics, Pakistan and China. The recent Moscow huddle including Afghan stake holders in Moscow point to urgency and interest of even the Russian Federation in ending this conflict.
There is only one country in the entire world who does not want this conflict to settle down so soon, and surprisingly it’s not an immediate Afghan neighbour but India. Why is India so much negatively anxious to see a peaceful settlement of Afghan conflict? This is the main part of analysis of this article.
After 9/11,India found an expanding space in Pakistan’s neighborhood to apply all strands of Chankaya’s Mandala theory through a sophisticated hybrid war. The South Block head-honchos thought that a nuclear Pakistan could be finally eroded by their proxies in Afghanistan and the game started in earnest through expanding operations of RAW in collaboration with hostile intelligence agencies operating from Afghan soil. The target was simple: keep Durand Line on fire by sowing seeds of hate and animosity between Afghanistan and Pakistan and strategically suffocate Pakistan to an extent that it becomes an unviable state. No wonder India recently unleashed the ethno fascists or fake sub-nationalists to create an illusion of instability in FATA.
India took a lot of pain and effort to develop and invest in building a terror network along with some hostile intelligence agencies in Afghanistan and the Iran. Commander Kulbhushan Yadav(the top RAW gun and the Bluebird),used both Afghan and Iranian soils to foment terror in Pakistan. Indian support to defunct terror entities like BLA and BRA and chaos generators like fake sub-nationalists of FATA are no more hidden from the eyes of the world.
A retired Indian Major General Harsha Kakar while writing in the Statesman with the title, “Who is responsible for Afghanistan Mess” talked of growing anxiety in the Indian Establishment, where he criticize President Trump for the decision to pull out of Afghanistan and urged the Military hawks in Washington to continue the war, just because it favors Indian nefarious designs. The General was almost comic when he compared Afghan withdrawal with the Vietnam war and tried to arouse the ghost of Saigon. The reality, of course, is different: the Indian Miltablishment and RAW, after playing a long and dirty game in Afghanistan, feels its investment in drowning in Kabul River.
Indeed there are geopolitical consequences for India: It sees the threat of busting of the terror network of RAW in a number of consulates used to keep destabilizing Pakistan; something similar to what happened in Srilanka, when LTTE Generalissimo Prabharkaran was killed and a trove of RAW’s terror network to support LTTE was discovered from the Mulailtivu Forests and Jaffna Peninsula. The façade of Indian investment and development in Afghanistan has started crumbling as more stories about how Indian Military and RAW directly took part in military operations against Taliban fighters are emerging. No wonder Indian Army Chief, Bipin Rawat pointed out the need for talking to the Taliban during Raisina Dialogue held in New Delhi recently.
Pakistan and Afghanistan are intertwined twins and neighbors who have remained inseparable throughout history. They have to live and coexist together; any outside power trying to create cleavages between these two brothers will fail and India is no exception. From now on, all roads to Kabul will pass through Islamabad, due to centrality and the resilience of Pakistan.
Indian Afghan enterprise was based on one thing, Chanakya’s Mandal Siddhanta theory; applying this theory, Pakistan being the immediate neighbor is the ultimate enemy(Ari) and Afghanistan and Iran fall in the category of Mitras, US is the Udasina (neutral King). The future of Afghanistan from South Block looks like this; Ari(Pakistan) has rejoined the Mitra(Afghanistan) and Udasina(US) is exhausted and pulling out, so the Vijusu(India) has no option but to falter. The Doval-Modi circus in Afghanistan was poorly conceived and has become a flop show, it must be wrapped up, lock stock and barrel; it is time to leave, India.
The author is a freelance journalist.