With Donald Trump back in the Middle East spotlight, it appears the region’s geopolitical map is being redrawn—if not geographically, then certainly in terms of power dynamics. Chief among the shifting sands is Syria. Once held together by the Assad dictatorship, Syria had positioned itself as a regional bulwark—not only against Israel but also against ISIS and a host of US-backed proxy forces.

It had forged strong alliances with Iran, Lebanon, and Iraq. But now, with the fall of Assad, Syria finds itself under new guardianship. The Gulf states have stepped in with promises to pay off its external debts. The United States has dangled the prospect of lifting sanctions. Meanwhile, Israel continues its airstrikes on Syrian territory without facing criticism from the new Syrian president—an ex-leader of al-Qaeda—whose ascent was quietly facilitated by both Israel and the US. As a result, Israeli occupation of Syrian lands beyond the Golan Heights is fast becoming an accepted reality.

Turkey, having settled its internal struggle with the PKK, is now better positioned to extend control over its borderlands with Syria. Russia, once a pivotal military backer of Damascus, has been reduced to a marginal presence, clinging to a few naval bases.

The patrons of Syria are clearly changing. Iran and Russia are out. In their place stand Saudi Arabia, the Gulf states, Israel, Turkey, and the United States. The critical question now is what kind of Syria will emerge. Can it move past the sectarian underpinnings of an al-Qaeda-linked regime and become and independent player? Or will it morph into a pliant client state, serving Washington’s strategic goals in the region as a pawn?

The answers remain unclear—but the transformation is already underway.