Zimbabwe deal hinges on Mugabe conceding powers: analysts

JOHANNESBURG  - Regional leaders' failure to resolve Zimbabwe's crisis has raised questions over whether President Robert Mugabe is prepared to cede enough power to make a deal possible, analysts said Monday. A summit of southern African leaders with Mugabe and opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai in attendance ended on Sunday with no final deal between the two rivals despite a push from heads of state to bring them to an agreement. Divisions remained over how power would be shared between the two men in a national unity government, including what authority they would have as president and prime minister. "He is definitely choosing for the hardline and he has always done that, and I think it is particularly unlikely for him to concede powers over the security establishment," said Olmo Von Meijenfeldt, an analyst with the Institute for Democracy in South Africa. Zimbabwe's military and security chiefs are strong backers of Mugabe, who was a hero of the country's liberation struggle against white minority rule. Some analysts argue the powerful Joint Operations Command of security chiefs call the shots to a large degree in Zimbabwe, and Mugabe's position at the negotiating table depends heavily on them. "I think the question to ask from where I'm sitting is whether it is Mugabe's decision," said Aubrey Matshiqi of the Centre for Political Studies in South Africa. An obstacle to a settlement to end the crisis that intensified after Mugabe's widely condemned re-election in June may be the Joint Operations Command, he said. "It would be very difficult for the JOC for instance to give up ministerial posts if this includes giving up the security portfolios." Tsvangirai in June claimed that Zimbabwe was being run by a "military junta", and he boycotted the June run-off vote, citing rising violence against his supporters that had left dozens dead and thousands injured. The opposition leader has held out so far against accepting a deal that he sees as not granting him real power. "It's better not to have a deal than to have a bad deal," Tsvangirai told The New York Times in an interview published Sunday. Pressure has increased on Tsvangirai, and South African President Thabo Mbeki, the mediator for the Zimbabwe talks, said Sunday parliament may have to be convened as negotiations continue. The ruling party lost its parliamentary majority for the first time since independence in 1980 in March elections. However, Mugabe's ZANU-PF and a smaller opposition faction led by Arthur Mutambara would have a parliamentary majority if they combined forces. Despite the differences between the bitter rivals, some analysts say some type of deal will eventually come out of the discussions. Eldred Masungure, a lecturer at the University of Zimbabwe, told AFP that "a deal is inevitable". "There will be an immense pressure on both parties to reach a deal," he said. "Failure is not an option as all other exits are blocked." But where a deal will leave the opposition is unclear, and some analysts argue Tsvangirai will never accept an agreement that does not give him a workable share of power. "Robert Mugabe might be willing to give some power to Morgan Tsvangirai, but that power will only translate to 25 percent of real power and that would not include him giving Morgan control of the army, police and the intelligence," said Takavira Zhou, a political analyst in Zimbabwe. In the meantime, Zimbabwe's economic meltdown continues. Once seen as a regional breadbasket, the country now has the world's highest inflation rate, officially put at 2.2 million percent, and major food shortages. Some argue Mugabe's party may be willing to accept a deal if only to free up international aid. "ZANU-PF seems to have a problem in giving real power to the MDC, but eventually they will have to," said Takura Zhangazha, director of the Media Institute of Southern Africa. World Bank and IMF support will be needed "to get the economy back on track," Zhangazha said.

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