There is never a dull movement in Pakistani politics; it keeps its consumers and followers on the edges of their seats. The same was true for the Punjab by-elections where the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PIT) of former prime minister Imran Khan proved the election pundits wrong. Against all odds and predictions, he won 15 out of 20 seats, regaining Punjab’s control from the Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N). The PTI’s landslide victory in Punjab has rendered the PMLN-led coalition government in the center toothless with early elections looking imminent.
Though it will be premature to pass a verdict on how Punjab’s politics will evolve and how Pakistan’s largest province is likely to vote in the next elections, some factors resulting in the PML-N’s trouncing are obvious. The first is the dichotomy of power and a confused narrative, or the lack thereof, inside the PMLN’s upper echelons. Nawaz Sharif’s, the patron-in-chief of the PML-N, absence and efforts to dictate terms from London have backfired. If PML-N has one X-factor left to salvage itself in Punjab in the next elections, it is Nawaz’s return to Pakistan. Shahbaz Sharif, the party’s president, shies away from his elder brother’s aggressive politics. Shahbaz has a more accommodative approach towards the military establishment.
This dichotomy of power and different political approaches leaves the PMLN voters and workers confused. Who should they follow: Nawaz, the patron-in-chief, or Shahbaz, the president? The party will have to decide soon. Also, what is the role of Maryam Nawaz? Is she the Nawaz’s political heir apparent or is it Shahbaz? The party leadership cannot keep this matter under the wraps anymore. Shahbaz is an excellent administrator, but he is a weak leader who lacks charisma. Maryam, on the contrary, is a genuine crowd-puller and a charismatic leader. The Punjab by-poll defeat has left the PML-N’s politics at cross-roads, it will have to take some bold decision in a quick time.
Secondly, the PML-N disowned Nawaz’s anti-establishment narrative enshrined in ‘vote-ko-izzat-dou’ slogan, which resonated with the party’s support-base in Punjab. After the Khan’s ouster in a parliamentary vote of no-confidence, PML-N abandoned this narrative and cozied up to the establishment which turned out to be suicidal. For four years, the anti-establishment narrative was the mainstay of PML-N’s politics in Punjab. Khan cleverly picked up the thread of Punjab’s anti-establishment politics where PML-N left them. The current situation has left PML-N in a catch-22 situation. If it continues with the same ambivalent approach, it willlose more space in Punjab. With the by-poll win and bright chances of early elections, the demand of PTI’s ticket in Punjab will rise again. Punjab’s likely next chief minister Pervaiz Elahi will try to make some inroads into PML-N’s ranks after coming to power. On the contrary, if the PMLN switches back to the anti-establishment narrative, it will be too little too late because Khan has captured that space already.
Third, the PML-N ignored the power of social media in an era of growing digitalization and information penetration, while PTI took full advantage of it. Khan mobilized his supporter base on Twitter spaces, YouTube channels, Facebook Lives and Podcasts. In a digital era where thousands of new voters are being added to the electoral registers every month, the PMLN was found lacking. Most of these young voters in each constituency are PTI’s vote bank. The PML-N will have to go back to the drawing board and rejig its social media strategy if it wants to make an impact in the next elections.
Another factor which undid the PML-N in Punjab was its political hubris and complacency. Over the years, the PMLN got lazy and did not seize the opportunities when they presented themselves in Punjab. The party thought that the only reason of its defeat in Punjab was establishment’s interference. The PML-N’s thinking that the establishment’s neutrality will restore its power in Punjab was flawed. Hence, after coming to power in Punjab, the PML-N thought winning the July 17 by-polls would be walk in the party for the party.
The decision to give tickets to political turncoats in a do-or-die by-election alienated the longstanding party workers. The PMLN fielded candidates who fought against it in the 2018 elections. It was not easy to convince the party cadres to run their election campaigns. The PMLN just demanded too much from its party workers who were waiting to reap the fruits of four years of political sacrifices only to know that their political opponents will walk away with those perks.
Finally, the PML-N traded its narrative for a power grab, while its position all along was to oust Khan and pave the way for early election after reforms in electoral and accountability laws. However, once it managed to cobble together a coalition government of strange bedfellows, it decided to stay on. The unpopular decisions such as withdrawing subsidies from the energy products to revive the International Monetary Fund’s Program’s bailout package resulting in soaring inflation also cost the PML-N dearly.
The irony is rich in Punjab’s by-polls where the vote-ko-izzat-dou narrative won but the PMLN lost for abandoning it. How the party recovers from this drubbing will require bold decisions, clear-eyed political positions and the revamping of its social media strategy. The Punjab by-poll defeat has left the PML-N in a catch-22 situation, if it hangs onto power in the center, Shahbaz will be a lame duck prime minister, while early elections will be a political suicide. Never a dull moment in Pakistani politics.
-- The author is a research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Singapore. Twitter @basitresearcher.
Though it will be premature to pass a verdict on how Punjab’s politics will evolve and how Pakistan’s largest province is likely to vote in the next elections, some factors resulting in the PML-N’s trouncing are obvious. The first is the dichotomy of power and a confused narrative, or the lack thereof, inside the PMLN’s upper echelons. Nawaz Sharif’s, the patron-in-chief of the PML-N, absence and efforts to dictate terms from London have backfired. If PML-N has one X-factor left to salvage itself in Punjab in the next elections, it is Nawaz’s return to Pakistan. Shahbaz Sharif, the party’s president, shies away from his elder brother’s aggressive politics. Shahbaz has a more accommodative approach towards the military establishment.
This dichotomy of power and different political approaches leaves the PMLN voters and workers confused. Who should they follow: Nawaz, the patron-in-chief, or Shahbaz, the president? The party will have to decide soon. Also, what is the role of Maryam Nawaz? Is she the Nawaz’s political heir apparent or is it Shahbaz? The party leadership cannot keep this matter under the wraps anymore. Shahbaz is an excellent administrator, but he is a weak leader who lacks charisma. Maryam, on the contrary, is a genuine crowd-puller and a charismatic leader. The Punjab by-poll defeat has left the PML-N’s politics at cross-roads, it will have to take some bold decision in a quick time.
Secondly, the PML-N disowned Nawaz’s anti-establishment narrative enshrined in ‘vote-ko-izzat-dou’ slogan, which resonated with the party’s support-base in Punjab. After the Khan’s ouster in a parliamentary vote of no-confidence, PML-N abandoned this narrative and cozied up to the establishment which turned out to be suicidal. For four years, the anti-establishment narrative was the mainstay of PML-N’s politics in Punjab. Khan cleverly picked up the thread of Punjab’s anti-establishment politics where PML-N left them. The current situation has left PML-N in a catch-22 situation. If it continues with the same ambivalent approach, it willlose more space in Punjab. With the by-poll win and bright chances of early elections, the demand of PTI’s ticket in Punjab will rise again. Punjab’s likely next chief minister Pervaiz Elahi will try to make some inroads into PML-N’s ranks after coming to power. On the contrary, if the PMLN switches back to the anti-establishment narrative, it will be too little too late because Khan has captured that space already.
Third, the PML-N ignored the power of social media in an era of growing digitalization and information penetration, while PTI took full advantage of it. Khan mobilized his supporter base on Twitter spaces, YouTube channels, Facebook Lives and Podcasts. In a digital era where thousands of new voters are being added to the electoral registers every month, the PMLN was found lacking. Most of these young voters in each constituency are PTI’s vote bank. The PML-N will have to go back to the drawing board and rejig its social media strategy if it wants to make an impact in the next elections.
Another factor which undid the PML-N in Punjab was its political hubris and complacency. Over the years, the PMLN got lazy and did not seize the opportunities when they presented themselves in Punjab. The party thought that the only reason of its defeat in Punjab was establishment’s interference. The PML-N’s thinking that the establishment’s neutrality will restore its power in Punjab was flawed. Hence, after coming to power in Punjab, the PML-N thought winning the July 17 by-polls would be walk in the party for the party.
The decision to give tickets to political turncoats in a do-or-die by-election alienated the longstanding party workers. The PMLN fielded candidates who fought against it in the 2018 elections. It was not easy to convince the party cadres to run their election campaigns. The PMLN just demanded too much from its party workers who were waiting to reap the fruits of four years of political sacrifices only to know that their political opponents will walk away with those perks.
Finally, the PML-N traded its narrative for a power grab, while its position all along was to oust Khan and pave the way for early election after reforms in electoral and accountability laws. However, once it managed to cobble together a coalition government of strange bedfellows, it decided to stay on. The unpopular decisions such as withdrawing subsidies from the energy products to revive the International Monetary Fund’s Program’s bailout package resulting in soaring inflation also cost the PML-N dearly.
The irony is rich in Punjab’s by-polls where the vote-ko-izzat-dou narrative won but the PMLN lost for abandoning it. How the party recovers from this drubbing will require bold decisions, clear-eyed political positions and the revamping of its social media strategy. The Punjab by-poll defeat has left the PML-N in a catch-22 situation, if it hangs onto power in the center, Shahbaz will be a lame duck prime minister, while early elections will be a political suicide. Never a dull moment in Pakistani politics.
-- The author is a research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Singapore. Twitter @basitresearcher.
