ISLAMABAD  -  The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected Pakistan’s GDP growth at 4 percent during current fiscal year.

The IMF, in its report World Economic Outlook, War Sets Back the Global Recov-ery, has projected GDP growth rate for Pakistan at four percent for 2022 against 5.6 percent in 2021. The Fund has estimated GDP growth at 4.2 percent for Paki-stan for the next fiscal year. The Fund has projected inflation rate in double digits at 11.2 percent for the year 2022 against 8.9 percent in 2021. Meanwhile, the report has projected consumer prices for the end of period of 2023 at 10.5 per-cent. The current account balance is projected at negative 5.3 percent for 2022 compared to negative 0.6 percent for 2021. The deficit is expected to decline to 4.1 percent in next fiscal year.

According to the IMF’s report, unemployment rate is projected to decline in Paki-stan in current as well as in next fiscal years. The unemployment rate is estimated to fall to 7 percent in ongoing financial year from 7.4 percent of the previous year. Furthermore, the unemployment rate is estimated to reduce 6.7 percent in upcoming financial year.

Global growth is projected to slow from an estimated 6.1 percent in 2021 to 3.6 percent in 2022 and 2023. This is 0.8 and 0.2 percentage points lower for 2022 and 2023 than in the January World Economic Outlook Update. Beyond 2023, global growth is forecast to decline to about 3.3 percent over the medium term. Crucially, this forecast assumes that the conflict remains confined to Ukraine, fur-ther sanctions on Russia exempt the energy sector (although the impact of Euro-pean countries’ decisions to wean themselves off Russian energy and embargoes announced through March 31, 2022, are factored into the baseline),and the pan-demic’s health and economic impacts abate over the course of 2022.

The World Bank has noted that on the back of high base affects and recent mone-tary tightening, real GDP growth is expected to moderate to 4.3 and 4.0 percent in FY22 and FY23, respectively. Thereafter, economic growth is projected to slightly recover to 4.2 percent in FY24, provided that structural reforms to sup-port fiscal sustainability and macroeconomic stability are implemented rapidly, and that global inflationary pressures dissipate.

Earlier, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) has noted that Pakistan’s economic growth is expected to slow and inflation would rise driven by higher fuel prices during current fiscal year 2022. “Growth is expected to slow in fiscal 2022 on tighter fiscal and monetary policy, but strengthen in fiscal 2023 as consumption and investment accelerate,” the ADB noted in its ‘Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2022’.  The GDP growth is projected to moderate to 4 percent in FY2022 and to 4.5 percent in FY2023. Slower growth in the current fiscal year reflects the government reactivating its stabilisation programme under the International Monetary Fund Extended Fund Facility to narrow the current account deficit, raise international reserves, and cut inflation.