The World Economic Forum (WEF) has this week held its 2023 Annual Meeting in Davos, Switzerland, with top leaders in government, private sector, civil society and more. The theme, ‘Cooperation in a Fragmented World’, pinpoints key issues, well, only half of them, because there is also the opposite, the lack of cooperation, conflicts and even wars, and much time was spent on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Europe and USA’s response to it. Less time was spent on other wars, some almost forgotten but devastating. Climate change and environmental issues were given attention, but not much concrete about the fund to be established for loss and damage and the shrinking development aid. The pandemic is not quite over and poor countries fight other contagious diseases, too.
WEF is an economic forum for information exchange and getting inspiration. However, they don’t seem to do enough to address that the rich continue to get richer while the poor get poorer, in the poor countries and the rich countries. Often, ‘cooperation’ means better opportunities and higher profits for the rich, but less for the poor. Since the Russian war in Ukraine began on 24 February 2022, followed by EU’s sanctions and Russia’s counter-response with reduced supply of gas to Europe, inflation and prices have gone up in Europe and beyond. As usual, the poorest carry the brunt while we say that we are burden-sharing. Alas, politicians, academics, private sector leaders, and thinkers seem not to have clear visions for the future, so the large Davos gathering had less ground-breaking ideas this year than one could have hoped. Perhaps they were rather complacent and glad that the recession seems not to be as severe as feared.
WEF President Børge Brende said there will be global economic growth even in 2023. Also, the chief of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Kristalina Georgieva, moderated an earlier economic forecast, now saying that she expects there will not be economic recession but some economic growth this year, and that interest rates and inflation would not continue to go up. Thus, there would be some hope for improvements this year, not for all, but mostly for those who are already alright. When the Russian war in Ukraine ends, there will be opportunities for the West to assist in rebuilding the land, and, yes, make profits; some already do from weapons and equipment sales, and some new suppliers of gas, indeed Norway, earn from increased sale of gas, especially to Germany, replacing Russia’s supply.
As always, WEF reminded us of being optimistic and keeping a positive mindset alive, it being one of the five aspects that WEF has listed for leadership and progress. The title of this year’s meeting, and the WEF’s founding president Professor Klaus Schwab, underlined the importance of trying to do the best out of existing opportunities, even in the world we have today. The results of the corona pandemic and the Russian war in Ukraine cast shadows over developments in our time, including challenges for democracies. There is less cooperation within and between countries, and sadly, also less concern for the poorest people.
In spite of having more advanced technology than ever before for monitoring developments and carry out future planning, especially in the West, we have experienced several ‘surprises’ in the last half decade. In certain ways, politicians and specialists have behaved like ostriches when dangers and disasters strike, notably hiding their head in the sand thinking problems will blow over if they don’t look.
The outbreak of the corona pandemic happened in early 2020, well, it began a couple of months earlier, and it is still not quite over, and the negative effects are certainly many both economically and socially. Some countries took stern measures fast, including restrictions of people’s movements and contacts, and those who were particularly good at it, indeed China, suffer today because the pandemic could not have a ‘natural course’ with some flock immunity. Today, we see that some countries, including Pakistan and African countries, have done better than expected, for various reasons, but also because they were not as good as China and mostly Western ones with restrictions and vaccinations.
Yet, it remains a mystery why scientists did not predict the pandemic before its serious spread, informing the politicians so they could have taken actions. The effects have delayed countries’ developments and certainly slowed down international exchange and cooperation. Hopefully, the politicians and experts have drawn lessons from this pandemic so the preparedness will be better when the next pandemics come in some years or decades.
The other major issue in Europe and the world at this time is the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which was also a ‘surprise’, but it could and should have been avoided. The American intelligence people claim they knew about it, at least some time before it happened. NATO, USA, EU, and the West in general, must have seen the possibility of a conflict between Russia and the West escalating, and that it could lead to an armed conflict. Why the parties didn’t do more to avoid the conflict and direct war remains a mystery. It must be subject of research and studies in future, covering all the years since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1989-90.
NATO and the West are now in many ways fuelling the war through helping Ukraine militarily; they are also not proactively working for realistic peace talks. Currently, the parties, and the West in particular, seem to think that peace in Ukraine goes through more and more weapons support. An important American goal is to reduce Russia’s long term economic and militarily capabilities. There is a risk that the conflict can spread to other countries. China has until now not played an active role in the conflict, rather quietly supporting Russia. In future, though, China can play a constructive role in ending the conflict. That was not the theme of the key speech at WEF of Liu He, the Vice Premier of the State Council of China, at WEF, but he did address a number of other cooperation issues in a fragmented world. China’s contributions in continued global economic development were highlighted.
It is a fact that the Russian war in Ukraine, the effects of the pandemic, and also climate change and energy issues overshadow current global economic developments and debates. Democracy challenges are also important. But that is rather a warning to the leaders if the deliveries of democracies are less than they should be. There is a need for renewal of the democracies, also in the West.
When the war in Ukraine ends, there will be need for massive assistance to the country, including further development of its democracy and international cooperation. The West with NATO has focused very much on military build-up in its 30-member alliance, but they should all turn to addressing democracy and peace issues. That includes natural disaster issues, migration and refugee issues, and renewed international development aid and trade, to create a more stable world. In a longer time perspective, Russia must also be integrated into a positive democratic development, and China, too, for their own people and for the benefit of Europe, the West, and the whole world. It is essential that cooperation replaces conflict, and that the fragmented world moves towards a more positive development paradigm and a more equal world for all.