Pakistan’s portfolio forte for global charter of consensus-I

Legal diplomacy will strengthen Pakistan’s initiatives & endeavours with key insights and meaningful pursuits and effective feedback

As US-led western bloc pursues coercive diplomacy to assert its international rules-based order, there is another reaction emerging in response to such intensification of strategic coercion. The response is by the non-western countries seeking to restore cordial relations in order to ensure cooperation, coordination and collaboration for mutual progress and prosperity. The contiguous nature of boundaries of Muslim countries also suggests the common destiny of the region from North Africa to Middle East (West Asia) to Turkey to South Asia with peripheral region of South East Asia located near to India, Japan, China, Australia and Korea. 

In 2021, there was rapprochement between Middle Eastern countries previously having contention such as between Qatar, Iran, Turkey & Syria and Saudi-led GCC and Egypt. The Russia-Ukraine war disrupted the diplomacy as coercive diplomacy and strategic coercion caused breakdowns and halts. However, the rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran with Chinese mediation simultaneous to Syria’s return to Arab fold after Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad’s visit to U.A.E. indicates high progress in Muslim Ummah and Asian comity of Nation-States. Overall, this shows the trend, trajectory, and pattern of response to political events as both types of diplomacy (coercive & cooperative) intensify. There is acknowledging of the need for charter of consensus amidst the emerging warfare domains.

 Nevertheless, the practice of resisting the status quo to effectively oppose the elite capture has also increased. Countries and populations are seeking strategic autonomy as emerging warfare domains damage the sovereignty. The disruptions of coercive diplomacy have reached within societies as political narratives deepen the rifts. In Pakistan, strategic political vision is required to achieve the Charter of Consensus, but the politics of division and hatred brought instability, insecurity, and destruction. Soon, this practice will be opposed by both camps i.e., US-led western bloc and Russo-Chinese camp. As emerging warfare intensifies, Pakistan’s Charter of Consensus has become even more timely required solution to abandon its old problem-solving limited approach to fix situations including existing circumstances and prevailing conditions.

 It seems to be a matter of time when the situational status quo will settle after re-adjusting. In this brief period, the threats and risks are to be observed, identified, and examined. The opportunity is the recognition of major power and key players in world order & international system that benefit from such disruptions and disorder are perpetual risks & emerging threats. If Saudi-Iran as well as Syrian-GCC rapprochement can occur, then Russian and American rapprochement is highly possible, too. That too, with the NATO & EU approval. The aim, objective, goal, and target of US-led western bloc under President Biden is to ensure the leadership of America through maintaining of an upper hand which then ensures preserving and safeguarding of its allies against Russia, China, Iran and North Korea. 

Nevertheless, in the re-settling of the situational status quo, there will be many legal and normative practices for frameworks of Peace & War which will potentially include Strategic Accords, Political Agreements, Diplomatic Arrangements, Security Pacts, Peace Treaties, Economic Unions and Joint Alliances. In this sense, the confidence-building measures between Muslim countries in Middle East is already favorable development to now put forth efforts for a shift from regional to Global Charter of Consensus. Of course, our own house should be to make it a success story on a global level. Considerably, this applies to Pakistan, too. If other Muslims countries can restore cordial relations, then Pakistan must bring order and stability to its own land, too. 

The social cataclysm as part of Rapoport’s 3 Philosophies (Political, Cataclysmic and Eschatological) of War was discussed in my previous article. Cohesion through National Charter of consensus is crucial and critical for Pakistan’s survival. During World War 2, a concerned British citizen asked Winston Churchill regarding possibility of defeat and downfall of Britain to which he replied that the country will not be defeated or face downfall if the courts in the country are functioning (as the third organ of state). This directly related to internal functioning of system and society.  Instead of limiting reliance to politico-bureaucratic(legislative-bureaucratic) set-up which only has problem-solving should instead pursue solution-providing approach, Pakistan must ensure that its cohesion is followed by stability & order to overcome the threats and risks of social cataclysm (exhaustion of resources). For that, it needs Charter of Consensus. Though, political leadership can provide limited solution but its role is also in strengthening court through ‘strategic political vision more than technocratic intervention (politico-bureaucratic).’ There is talk for Judicial reforms. However, the research framework for legal analysis of the eschatological significance of political events can provide integrated-consolidated all-in-one solution platform to overcome current plethora of crisis in Pakistan. For that, strategic political vision for Charter of Consensus is needed which can fulfill the triad (political-cataclysm-eschatological) philosophies of war [for even better understanding, the article on Social Cataclysm can be read here.

Pakistan must follow-up the trajectory set by the continual rapprochement between Muslim countries. World is diving into two camps. Therefore, a research framework for analyzing Rapoport’s 3 philosophies of war is needed to produce actionable findings for confidence-building measures. In this regard, legal methods & approach are utilized. The eschatological authority in contemporary era is Sheikh Imran Nazar Hosein (SINH) who has his own constructivist approach and critical & interpretivist epistemology towards political events. He focuses on teachings related to approach based upon Quranic methodology. However, a major gap can be easily deciphered as his excessive focus on Russia obscures the role of Muslim Ummah and Islamic countries, which can otherwise be utilized for confidence-building and global charter of consensus with Pakistan’s portfolio forte at the center. The entire Quran and its methodology are also related to Law and Ethics for Muslims. If ‘Moral Law is the Highest Law’ stands true, then Quran’s teachings and commandments are highest standard of Law for a follower of Islam in his personal, professional, and social life notwithstanding constitutional adherence to law of land. SINH focuses on topic of Ar-Rum but obscures the eschatological significance of political events based upon the developing of Muslim jurisprudential (as well as juridical and judicial) view on evidence-based reasoning, logic and philosophy that provides insight for a Muslim Community and Islamic Country for consensus and confidence-building then inculcated in the spirit of jurisprudential, juridical, and judicial domains combining to serve an organ of state. The referent object in terms of eschatological significance must be a departure for reliance on others and the point of reference must be Muslim Ummah instead of excessive focus on Ar-Rum. Therefore, INH’s method and approach are incomplete due to ‘obscurial’ tendency that becomes inconsequential for Islamic Ethics for self-improvement and self-accountability. The sense-perception for such strategic thinking comes from evolutionary experiential approach with preference of ethics established through reliance on pursuing evidence-based reasoning, philosophical and logical approach for developing jurisprudential, juridical and judicial spirit in the legal analysis for eschatological significance of political events. 

For research work - However, the eschatological philosophy of war in evidence-based sense refers to Ar-Rum in the Quran for two times (Awwal-uz-zamaan and Aakhir-uz-zamaan). Moreover, INH emphasizes on two Ar-Rums. In the concept of Awwal-uz-zamaan and Aakhir-uz-zamaan providing eschatological significance, the political events in Muslim Community are no different. There have been two main groups in both eras with the remaining third population either as Neutrals or Kharijites. These details are further found in ‘Prophetic traditions (Hadith) for Awwal-uz-zamaan and Aakhir-uz-zamaan times but it has analytical utility through Rapoport’s philosophies of war. There is need for consensus and confidence-building which can be put into framework based on historical element in evolutionary experiential which can be agreed upon with US & Russia to act against the Kharijites (interpreting Kharijite elements as ‘enemies on your backs’ mentioned in the hadith) negative impact on cohesion, stability and security at and on all levels of analysis due to their lack of adherence to Ethics and Law but it needs to be supported through legal domains of jurisprudential, juridical and judicial backing. Either relying on US or Russia or both or China leads to ignoring prospects for self-made progress. Ethics & Law are pivotal for practicing  Unity, Faith and Discipline. The political set-up in stable Middle Eastern countries is based on strict adherence to law and order but a democratic Pakistan suffers from instability and insecurity, which then further highlights the significant importance of role of legal domains. Nevertheless, Pakistan’s portfolio forte lies in its experiential evolutionary approach which can then be applied into legal & normative domains involving strategic & security diplomacy. The Prophetic traditions mention Treaties and Pacts with Ar-Rum. The possible future rapprochement between US (+EU+NATO+AUKUS+QUAD) & Russia (+China) will potentially be based upon consensus encapsulated in Legal and Normative frameworks for strategic and security paradigms in times of war and peace. 

To put an end to crisis, Pakistan’s Crisis leadership can come up with strong politico-legal domain to ensure safe, secure and sovereignly autonomous participation of Muslim Ummah in new status quo. For that purpose, the eschatological significance of political events is already self-evident specifically in Greater Middle East but the research framework for legal analysis is required to clarify the jurisprudential, juridical and judicial process. The NATO’s presence in Antakya-Iskenderun region of Turkiye’s Hatay province (after Syria-Turkiye earthquake 2023) is already symbolically mentioned in Prophetic traditions while NATO is spearheading its non-traditional endeavours and non-military initiatives with committed resilience and intensified pursuit. With Turkey’s 100 year treaty coming to an end in 2023 but Montruex convention’s potency amidst friendly relationships being restored between previously arch-rivals in Middle East, there will be Strategic Accords, Political Agreements, Diplomatic Arrangements, Security Pacts, Peace Treaties, Economic Unions and Joint Alliances such as Montreux Convention. Interestingly, Turkiye’s case study is central for Pakistan’s Portfolio Forte. Pakistan is already experiencing technocratic intervention for technical managers space since 2016-17-18 till now in two consecutive Civilian Governments but there has been failure due to gaps in politico-legal-governance system like as witnessed in Awwal-uz-zamaan. Turkey’s order, stability, security, progress was ensured after technocratic government transferred power and authority to democratic government. Pakistan needs a strong and effective judiciary for law and order and safety, security and well-being of citizens and state. Pakistani Legislators as law-makers are calling for judicial reforms but they need strategic political vision for charter of consensus based upon research framework for legal analysis of eschatological significance of political events which brings the Government & State on same page. Pakistan needs a Charter of Consensus on National level, first, in order to then proceed to Regional and Global Level.

The research framework is the case study.

The legal analysis is the utilization of legal methods and legal approach.

Eschatological significance is the settings.

Political events is the practical outcomes. 

In terms of IRAC legal method utilized in legal analysis, all 4 main variables (research framework, legal analysis, eschatological significance, political events) are dealt and represented as follows: 

Issue (eschatological significance in philosophy of war)

Rule (research framework – case study)

Analysis (Legal analysis & methods)

Conclusion (Political Events)

The type of change in status quo leads to different situations, circumstances and conditions from which Pakistan can benefit. This is reflected in the IRAC legal method utilized above for subsequent legal research and analysis to be done in the second stage i.e., Jurisprudential, Juridical and Judicial development. A particular idea that emerges from Prophetic tradition dealing with eschatological-political event is the existence of 2 groups in Muslims Ummah and 2 groups in Ar-Rum which then at certain times (mentioned with details in Hadith) are either averse / detrimental / harmful OR, rather beneficial / favourable / advantageous to eachother. The Hadith provide timelines along with details. Do Divine scripture, revealed knowledge and Prophetic traditions have inherent capacity to genuinely provide capable basis for research framework in legal domains? Legal relationship must be established between the 2 or more groups. Particularly, evidence-based reasoning, logic and philosophy reflected in experiential & historical evolutionary trajectory, trends and patterns in political events depicting eschatological significance relative to Rapoport’s 3 elements in Philosophy of War must be studied, examined, and observed with critical legal lens and sense-perception, which must be upheld in jurisprudential terms.

 Overall, the role of Courts is not to create the Charter of Consensus but to ensure that impediments in terms of law & order are removed to provide the situations, condition, and circumstances to assist the State and Government in legal diplomacy on regional and global / international level. Although, this is the technical component dealt at juridical and judicial phase or level, the jurisprudential sets the initial defining tone amidst Abrahamic Accords, Middle East Peace Plan and the ‘deal of the century.’ For example, NATO members and other organisations operating at Syria-Turkiye border in aftermath of earthquake are juridical entities as per Istanbul Climate Initiative & Mediterranean Dialogues as meanwhile they establish broad scope & wide range presence in both military & non-military security as well as traditional and non-traditional security to follow-up with Arms transfer against such nonstate actors working for destabilisation in that earthquake-hit area. This comes at a time when EU & NATO have launched joint task force for developing critical infrastructure. It’s an extensive case study.

In such accordance, Pakistan needs a military legal community which has effective understanding of non-traditional and non-military security, too. Furthermore, Judicial component is the internal (institutional / country) law and external (International legal and normative nature of Strategic Accords, Political Agreements, Diplomatic Arrangements, Security Pacts, Peace Treaties, Economic Unions and Joint Alliances etc) law. This is necessary from a strategic and security point of view which brings all social sciences as well other academic disciplines into account, leading to inter & multi-disciplinary course of action at professional. Legal domains inter-section across all sectors can provide an all-encompassing view to the Security Strategy and Policy Planning presented in the National Security Policy document by the National Security Committee. Moreover, legal diplomacy will strengthen Pakistan’s initiatives & endeavours with key insights and meaningful pursuits and effective feedback. However, the jurisprudential base establishes the working of legal domains for Pakistan’s portfolio forte for Global Charter of Consensus. Therefore, the military legal community must be consisting of strategy and security professionals from non-military and non-traditional research and professional background. As Juridical & Judicial contributive part for Pakistan’s Portfolio forte for Charter of Consensus can be identified, examined and observed, it is the jurisprudential part which initiates methodical legal research & analysis of eschatological significance of political events so as to introduce evidence-based reasoning, logical and philosophical approach to build a practical legal domain for it. For Pakistan’s portfolio forte for Global Charter of Consensus, there is need for strategic communication for legal diplomacy based on IRAC research analysis in jurisprudential, juridical and judicial domains.  

Waqas Mahmood Ali is an International Strategy Analyst and Political commentator. Waqas is a former member of staff at 'The Nation' newspaper. He is 'Phd Candidate' at Strategic Studies Department at Air University. He is associated with Newspapers, Radio and, Policy, Political and Media think tanks. He can be reached on twitter at @WaqasMahmoodAli

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