“Surprise” is a vital principle of war. Pakistan achieved this comprehensively in the national, strategic, operational and tactical dimensions against India during Operation Bunyannun Marsoos. It put up a superb whole-of-the-nation response, much against Indian expectations. Sublime diplomacy by its diplomats negated the Indian Government’s ill-founded media and diplomatic offensives. India, much to its horror, ended up isolated in the SAR and literally friendless beyond it. Pakistan’s media, in all its manifestations, retained its composure, balance, credibility and sense of humour in countering the lies and wild fabrications of the Indian Government and the hysterical, manic Indian media. It won the war of narratives and perceptions, hands down. On the military front, Pakistan’s Armed Forces achieved complete surprise. It was demonstrated in the clarity of thought and purpose in the higher direction of war/clash. There were no ambiguities in the desired end state and the ways and means to get there. It was a magnificent demonstration of pure professionalism exemplified by flawless, seamless joint operations by the Armed Forces. The operational methodologies applied, the brilliance in the execution of their operational/tactical plans, the excellence in multi-domain operations/warfare, the choice of weapon systems and targets, the ferocity, lethality and certainty of the response, etc., all converged together at the designated point(s) of application to bewilder the Indian Armed Forces and their Government. They were both quite ill-prepared for such a swift, lethal, ferocious and intense form of technology-savvy, multi-domain, modern warfare! The surprise achieved by the Pakistan Armed Forces, in particular the PAF, overwhelmed the Indians completely and threw them off balance. This clash has seriously exposed the Indian Armed Forces’ multifarious incapacities to wage a modern, high-tech, multi-domain war. The Pakistan Army remained dominant and ascendant; destroying brigade and battalion headquarters, a number of Indian posts in the IIOJ&KR, artillery gun positions, logistic installations, etc. The redoubtable PAF achieved air superiority over the IAF, shot six of its aircraft down and forced it to ground its fleets of modern fighters! It also neutralised BrahMos storage sites, S-400 batteries, airbases, etc. The Pakistan Navy warded off the Indian Navy’s aircraft carrier group and other warships from Pakistan’s shores. India and its armed forces were truly flabbergasted by Pakistan’s fierce, violent, focussed, overwhelming response and promptly sought a ceasefire!
At the geostrategic level, therefore, a massive paradigm shift has been manifested. New strategic paradigms have emerged. The strategic balance stands recalibrated. Pakistan has restored deterrence at the strategic and operational levels while restraint at the tactical level will remain subject to the vagaries of ceasefires. Crucially, India remains pegged to the subcontinent by Pakistan. Its Armed Forces are fixed by Pakistan’s Armed Forces, thus denying them the freedom of action and manoeuvre that they might have exercised otherwise. India thus cannot move any substantial forces from the LoC, Working Boundary or the international borders to counter China or in pursuit of alien tasks/interests. This exposes its strategic inadequacies and limitations to conduct a two-three front war against Pakistan, China and a restive IIOJ&KR simultaneously. On the other hand, Pakistan and China’s national interests converge splendidly in the region. They have demonstrated strong collaboration and emerging synergies and commonalities in weapon systems, equipment, multi-domain operational modalities, strategies, etc. They carry out joint exercises at various levels and in different strategic environments too. This ought to ensure interoperability and joint planning and operations, whenever needed. This acquires immense importance in the context of the essentially trilateral issue of the larger Kashmir region between China, India and Pakistan. It is time for Pakistan and China to transform their flourishing strategic partnership into a formal, viable, binding defence and security agreement/pact. Period. That will enhance Pakistan’s full-spectrum deterrence (including nuclear) manifold; forestall Indian aggression, restrain escalation, stabilise the strategic environment, usher in peace and redefine the geopolitical and geostrategic imperatives of the SAR for good. It will have serious implications in the larger Asia-Pacific theatre of war context, too!
India’s yawning gap between its actual power potential and the delusional, strategic ambitions of its political and military leaders is the cause of its critical miscalculations at the geopolitical and geostrategic levels. Its compulsive obsession to be the dominant hegemon and net security provider in the region is much beyond its real military capacities and capabilities. Nuclear Pakistan stands in the way. Similarly, its national vision and/or objective of creating Akhand Bharat is unrealistic, impractical and undoable. PM Modi is guilty of strategic overreach. His ambitions far outstrip India’s real clout and authority. His megalomania, hubris and compulsive hatred of everything Pakistani and Muslim has been his undoing. Post Operation Bunyannun Marsoos, his and India’s standing and stature have taken massive hits at the international level. India’s value as a strategic US ally, member of QUAD and as a genuine counterweight to China are now being questioned. It failed to overwhelm Pakistan. The implications become more critical once a potential Sino-Pakistan strategic partnership/alliance is brought into contention!
The Indians need a reality check. They need a leadership that is in sync with reality, with the demands of modern-day geopolitics, has a strategic, futuristic vision, foresight, balance and, importantly, does not live and wallow in the past. It must shun the time warp in which PM Modi & Co reside. The supposed, imagined and/or real injustices of history can neither be undone nor be recompensed by hurting India’s own minorities, especially Indian Muslims, Muslims in IIOJ&KR, Christians, Sikhs, Dalits, etc., today. PM Modi’s politics of dividing and ruling India will invariably cause it to implode and splinter. The time and era of PM Modi’s divisive politics and India’s neurotic obsession for regional hegemony are well and truly over!
Is PM Modi’s political Waterloo night?
Imran Malik
The writer is a retired brigadier of the Pakistan Army. He can be reached at im.k846@gmail.com and tweets @K846Im.