ISLAMABAD - The chances of estranged PML-N leader, Ch. Nisar Ali Khan, who took oath as Punjab MPA by winning 2018 general elections yesterday as an independent candidate after almost three years, coming back to the party are dim.

The self-styled politician had won PP-10, Rawalpindi-V seat with a margin of over 38,000 votes but did not take oath alleging rigging that led to his defeat in the National Assembly’s constituency NA-59, Rawalpindi-III. He had contested for two NA and two PA seats. On both the NA seats, PML-N had fielded its candidates against former interior minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan. However, he lost both the NA seats to Ghulam Sarwar Khan of the PTI. In NA-59 Rawalpindi-III, Ghulam Sarwar Khan had bagged 89520 votes while Ch. Nisar could secure 66782 votes. In NA-63 Rawalpindi-VII, Ghulam Sarwar Khan secured 102,632 votes while Ch. Nisar could bag only 66,653 votes.

Ch. Nisar has woken up from his political hibernation at a time when rumours of change in Punjab province have been rife amidst statements by the opposition parties about the PTI government’s ‘poor performance’. Ch. Nisar’s sudden emergence on the political horizon is being linked with him being assigned some big role in the province. His decision is being seen as part of a larger move in the province, that all may or may not be true but people are talking about it.

At the same time, Ch. Nisar is very clear in his statement on the subject. He just did not want to leave the political turf unoccupied for the political rivals as he believed that a proposed piece of legislation by the government may render him ‘not-qualified’ for the seat he had won if he didn’t take oath at the earliest. He finally decided to take the oath after around three years to pre-empt the government bid to ‘disqualify’ him through an ordinance. According to a statement issued by Ch. Nisar on Sunday, he decided to take oath just to save his seat, as he believes that first losing the seat on account of not taking oath and then boycotting the by-election and leaving the political turf unoccupied for rivals will be a major political mistake. He said it would be strange to first leave the seat and then participate in the by-election. However, he said taking oath won’t change his political stance or viewpoint. The PML-N officially distanced itself from the development with its spokesperson Marriyum Aurangzeb saying that it was not in their knowledge whether Nisar would take oath or not.

Ch. Nisar was once a close confidante of deposed premier Mian Nawaz Sharif. He had virtually said goodbye to the PML-N after the rift between the Sharifs and Nisar widened in 2018 when the latter said he would not beg the PML-N’s parliamentary committee for an election ticket. He also criticised the PML-N for having become a “family party”, which he said made it impossible for him to stay in it even though he had never really wanted to quit it. The differences between Nisar and Sharifs ranged from the kind of relations to be maintained with the military establishment to the control of Sharifs on the PML-N. Ch. Nisar clearly refused to accept Maryam Nawaz as the next party chief after Nawaz Sharif’s disqualification from the court. He was not happy over Nawaz Sharif’s role on Nisar’s tiff with Maryam Nawaz. Nawaz Sharif had sided with his daughter on the issue and was in no mood to mend fences with Nisar. Once the PML-N stalwart, Ch. Nisar also kept away from the party’s agitation plan after Nawaz Sharif’s disqualification from the Supreme Court. Moreover, Maryam’s statement just before the 2018 general elections that the party will decide whether or not to award a ticket to Nisar for general elections added fuel to fire. Nisar also felt humiliated after former PM Mian Nawaz Sharif repeatedly turned down Shehbaz’s requests to meet the former interior minister. That was the point where Nisar and Sharifs parted ways. Nisar had a 35-year long association with the party.

Although the politician from Chakri told the media that he is not becoming part of any political game, yet the PTI government believes that having a clandestine meeting with PML-N President Shahbaz Sharif before going to the assembly to take oath is not as simple a development as ignorable. The PML-N can try to overthrow the Buzdar government if Nawaz Sharif accepts the former interior minister back into the party fold. However, the question arises if the doors of PML-N are still open for him. Ch. Nisar is yet to take the question but the answer from PML-N leadership speaks a lot about party policy. Distancing the party from Chaudhry Nisar’s decision to take oath, the PML-N leaders Maryam Nawaz, Shahid Khaqan Abbasi and PML-N Punjab Information Secretary Azma Bukhari were one in their voice; “There is no space for Nisar in the party now”. “He had parted ways with the party and contested the polls as an independent candidate,” said Maryam Nawaz to a question.

Chances of Ch. Nisar back into the PML-N fold seem grim especially in view of the ego at both the sides. However, PML-N president Shahbaz Sharif is busy in creating more space for fresh initiatives. Both Chaudhry Nisar and Shahbaz Sharif have traditionally acted as the bridge between the PML-N and the establishment. A politician like Chaudhry Nisar who has been in politics for the past 35 years will not take the decision to return to active politics without a clear plan. On the other hand, Maryam Nawaz, supported by her father on the issue, seems not willing to take Nisar back into the party fold. There is only one chance that the establishment asks PML-N to take him back in the party and if Nawaz Sharif agrees to embrace Nisar, change in Punjab is certain.