India comes across as a frustrated country, continuously ruing its unfulfilled, self-professed promise. Its helplessness in subduing Pakistan is palpable and pitiable. Nevertheless, its megalomania, hubris and arrogance keep growing exponentially. Its real economic, military and diplomatic clout are far inferior to its ambitions. It needs to recognise and accept this incongruity. Its aspirations of dominating the region remain stillborn as they are blocked by a fiercely independent, defiant, unyielding, resilient and militarily strong nuclear Pakistan. Its lofty objectives of becoming a meaningful player at the global level thus remain unsatiated. China’s ingress and growing influence in the region have worsened its woes.
India’s vexation is reflected in the multi-dimensional undeclared war it has unleashed on Pakistan. This was unambiguously laid out for the world to see by Pakistan’s Foreign Minister and the Director General Inter-Services Public Relations in a joint press conference.
On the political front, India has targeted Pakistan’s unruly political spectrum directly, in particular, in Balochistan, the erstwhile FATA and Gilgit Baltistan (GB). It fears GB’s provisional amalgamation in Pakistan post GB elections will nullify its “frivolous” claims on the territory. It’s attempts to enlist sub-nationalist elements from GB for terrorist activities against the CPEC have met with scant success. It has engaged some Baloch political dissidents to threaten the CPEC. It has exploited Altaf Hussain, the MQM supremo, to destabilise Karachi and Pakistan’s economy. Pakistan’s LEAs have successfully closed that chapter. Pakistan’s Army is its centre of gravity and India has attacked its credibility relentlessly. An ongoing effort is underway to create a gap between the Pakistan Army and the Pakistani public that adores it. Ominously, a particular political party is on a similar warpath against the Army’s leadership too. Is this convergence of interests against the Pakistan Army a mere coincidence?
On the military front, the Indians are confronted with a very unfavourable strategic environment. They now face a fearsome two-front scenario and a destabilised base of operations in the Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu & Kashmir Region (IIOJ&KR). They are in no position to get involved in large scale military operations with either Pakistan or China, much less with both simultaneously. They are caught in a strategic vice and are likely to restrict their inherent belligerence to just cross-LOC fire exchanges only. In this given strategic environment, it will be extremely foolhardy for them to start something which they cannot control or bring to a favourable closure. They ought to have drawn the right lessons post Balakot; nuclear Pakistan is no pushover! Their current hysteria and madness across the LOC are unfathomable.
It is a declared and avowed Indian policy to isolate Pakistan in the international community, though with precious little to show for its diplomatic efforts thus far. Pakistan must bring India’s state sponsored terrorism, with irrefutable proofs, to the world’s notice. The world has been rather unresponsive thus far but Pakistan must remain relentless in its efforts. It can raise the issues in international fora like the UNGA, UNSC, FATF, OIC, EU, SCO, SAARC and major capitals of the world, with Chinese help, where required. India has concomitantly launched an unrelenting media offensive, replete with fake, mis-and disinformation, propaganda and psychological warfare elements. Pakistan’s counter efforts on the diplomatic and media fronts must be enhanced in quality, quantity, scope and dimensions to neutralise Indian designs.
On the economic front India is making frantic efforts to keep Pakistan in a near-insolvent state. It fears that if the CPEC succeeds, Pakistan will become economically independent of the IFIs and western strangleholds, self-reliant and increasingly belligerent. Furthermore, there is a convergence of interests between some western powers and India to disrupt, delay and destroy the BRI-CPEC. India has thus obligingly formed a well-staffed, well-funded (Rs 80 billion), well equipped cell reporting directly to PM Modi, to scuttle the CPEC. To this end it is bound to continue creating the wherewithal to attack the BRI-CPEC in Balochistan, along the Karakoram Highway and in GB.
On the terrorism front the Indians have made massive investments in men, money, materials, weapons and explosives, efforts and political and diplomatic capital to destabilise Pakistan. They have blatantly used the territories of Afghanistan (66 terrorist camps) and Iran to launch terrorist attacks inside Pakistan. They have unified the TTP-JuA-HuA into one monolithic monster and amalgamated the BLA-BLF-BRA under the BRAS. Thus, a well-planned two-pronged terrorist effort, Afghanistan based and India sponsored, is under way in Pakistan. The BRAS will continue attacking the CPEC, Balochistan, and Karachi region while the enlarged TTP will target the Punjab, KP, the former FATA and GB districts. This brings the whole of Pakistan within the crosshairs of India-sponsored terrorism.
Pakistan must take a leaf out of Ajit Doval’s strategy and apply it against India. One, it must reach out to the sources of terrorism in Afghanistan and neutralise them there. Two, it must force India to look inwards, in particular in IIOJ&KR—India’s strategic vulnerability. It must make it absolutely clear to the world that it retains the right to respond to such blatant state sponsored terrorism by India at a point, time and in a manner of its own choosing. The Indian consulates, the hubs and sponsors of terrorism in Pakistan and their proteges in the numerous terrorist camps in Afghanistan thus become legitimate targets. Furthermore, the Kashmiri Freedom Movement must be given a fillip through political, moral, diplomatic and material support. The 1974 UNGA Resolution 3314 recognises the Right to Armed Struggle of a people under forcible occupation and its right to seek and receive support.
Foremost, Pakistan must concentrate on a sustainable economic recovery. It must launch well thought out, well-funded diplomatic and media offensives to project its point of view in the international community. A national dialogue will help pacify the domestic political environment and generate political stability. Domestically, Pakistan must come up with a whole-of-the-nation response to forestall all inimical designs of India. At the regional level, Pakistan and China must come together to safeguard the BRI-CPEC from all hostile powers.
It is time for Pakistan to become proactive.
Imran Malik
The writer is a retired brigadier of the Pakistan Army. He can be reached at im.k846@gmail.com
and tweets
@K846Im.