What's sure in US election outcome

Presidential elections in the US always bring surprises and even shocks in their long and tortuous process from start to finish. The 2008 election has been tracing a kind of record in this phenomenon, as its campaign marches toward culmination. It was more than a surprise - much like a shock - when Hillary Clinton was beaten by Barack Obama in the race to win Democratic presidential nomination. A second term sitting senator, a daughter of the soil, with eight years of complimentary publicity and popular public image at home and abroad as America's First Lady and having considerable exposure to compulsions of US domestic and foreign policy interests, defeated by a raw senator, fathered by a non-American, African national, previously unknown internationally and within America, and with no experience in foreign affairs. My own estimate, made as the primaries began, that Hillary would win the nomination and then the final race, evaporated into thin air. The surprise of surprises was the reported reason for Hillary's defeat - scarcity of funds Remember, she was the darling of the corporate bosses when she entered the race. For more insight, see the cover story Business Loves Hillary in Fortune (July 9, 2007). Her campaign chest was said to be brimming over with inflow of funds before the Iowa primary in January 2008. The election surprises evoked interesting comments in The Economist (Oct 4, 2008): "It has been a time of miracles and wonders. Hillary Clinton, the 'inevitable' Democratic nominee, was beaten by a man who was barely out of law school when she was trying to reform the nation's health-care system; and that man, Barack Obama, has become the darling of the world. John McCain, whose campaign was given up for dead last year, improbably surged past all his rivals to seize the Republican nomination." This chapter is not yet closed. There are likely to be more, and unsettling, surprises before, on or after the day of voting, November 4. The media reports Obama has notched up a clear lead over McCain besides gaining endorsement from some leading newspapers and several high-profile personalities. But, is it certain he is going to win the election? One cannot be sure. The Economist, quoted above, goes on to say: "And most surprising of all, at a time when the Democrats surely cannot lose, they still just might." Who knows the person in the White House eventually might be McCain or, by a quirk of fate, Joe Biden or Sarah Palin Enough of surprises. We should focus on what won't be surprising, what is going to be sure, with the new team in the White House. Whoever is the next US president, Barack Obama or John McCain, there are some matters of policies and circumstances that his administration will surely face or undertake. The new president will have an economy in turmoil and 10 trillion dollars of national debt on his hands or rather on his shoulders. The current financial Meltdown will be turning into an economic Burndown. The engineered 1929 stock exchange crash that lasted for over two years will seem like a kids mischief when the current programmed financial crunch, designed to last for 3 to 4 years, parcels out its crippling effects to every sector of American public life. The US dollar will lose in value and its international status. It is certain that the severe economic strain will unleash the serious domestic social and political problems held in check so far, and the country will be driven by civil strife. But, it is equally certain that the administration will continue, with more brashness than that the Bush presidency displayed, with highly aggressive and destructive moves of foreign policy, causing enormous harm and pain not only to the victim nations abroad but also to the American nation. The next president will outdo George W Bush in becoming unpopular at home and abroad.   The conduct of the US administration towards China in the worsening international environment will create strong friction between the two countries. Other points of conflict would add to it. Chinese reserves of over a trillion dollars and its sovereign wealth fund investments in the US would suffer not only through the financial turmoil but also due to injudicious political actions by the US government. China is aware of joint clandestine operations by CIA and RAW to foment political trouble and terrorism in its western province of Xinjiang Uygur. An increase in these hostile activities, which the two 'natural strategic partners' would want to pursue, will exacerbate the climate of conflict between China and the pair of 'natural partners'. The US will draw its so-called 'natural strategic partner', India, closer into its baneful strategic clasp, to use it in its wider schemes in Afghanistan, Central Asia, Pakistan, Iran and China. Greater CIA access into India will widen and intensify debilitating terrorism in India as the terror outfits there as well as in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan and China are being supplied and directed by the same sources. The next administration will enact the drama of withdrawing forces from Iraq. A big chunk of the over 200,000 US troops (official number is 150,000) will be shifted to Afghanistan. Various segments would be sent to US bases at Diego Garcia and in Germany and the Gulf States, and some back to US. A sizeable force will remain at US citadels in Iraq. World will be told occupation has ended and Iraqi government is fully in control. The US will let a nexus develop between Iran and Iraq, for its own schemes. At a programmed time, Iran would be subjected to a joint US-Israel selective strike that would eventually lead to a military conflagration in the region - with world wide ramifications. Large US forces will be lodged in Afghanistan, with new bases located along the border with Pakistan. Anti-US feelings in the Afghans, killings of civilians and terror incidents will increase. Hamid Karzai would be replaced by a more aggressive and anti-religion Afghani-American. Pakistan will figure as the top foreign policy and media topic in America. It will be declared as the front state that poses the greatest threat to America, and the US secret agencies, helped by fifth columnists, will craft conditions for large scale US military intervention in the country. With make-believe propaganda, the US media establishment will cook up a case, like that of the WMDs against Iraq, that the only way to end the terrorism by Al-Qaeda and Taliban in Afghanistan and elsewhere is to attack their bases in Pakistan's tribal areas. The terror groups will receive greater operational and logistic support from their foreign handlers. More destabilising schemes will be launched in Pakistan by the Israel-India-Afghanistan axis. Aggressive actions by India and Afghanistan will increase but Pakistan leadership will be forced to keep its acquiescent attitude and not to disturb the expanding diplomatic, commercial and entertainment relations with India. Pakistan's economy will be kept shaky. The rupee will be driven into a bottomless downswing. The country's economic handlers will be told to sell off its remaining precious national assets to foreign multinationals. At some stage Pakistan will be subjected to US/UN sanctions. What is described above mainly consists of the views of the present and the future US leaders and the US media. Its other part is based on the not so secret designs of the Israeli State and the World Zionist Organisation whose loyalists are the makers of US national policies. The most eerie element in the next programme concerns "another 9/11" - a dreadful biological or nuclear attack - which would be engineered by the same agencies which masterminded 9/11 but which would be blamed on Al-Qaeda and Pakistan. Pakistan has to think, now, of how to face that situation. There is only one way. With wisdom and tact, start a worldwide diplomatic, political and media campaign to expose the real masterminds of 9/11, and that "another 9/11" will also be their deed. The campaign should use the undeniable scientific, circumstantial and photographic proofs published by the American and European scientists, engineers and scholars that unmistakably identify the real 9/11 culprits. The writer is chairman global game study circle E-mail: sglobalgame@yahoo.com

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