At this moment, the Taliban regime in Afghanistan is acting (or at least trying) as a counter insurgency force. Though not in swathes, but whatever the presence of IS-K is in the eastern provinces of Nangarhar and Kunar, it has kept the Taliban on its toes ever since they took Kabul. Furthermore, there is an imminent humanitarian crisis on the horizon because of the uncertainty prevailing around the status of Taliban government and subsequent diplomatic relations with the world. While the west and other countries are reluctant for obvious reasons, Taliban and Pakistan are pushing for international recognition as a solution for regional and global security. However, even if the Taliban regime manages to secure international legitimacy, it’s still going to be a tough road ahead. One caveat in particular could have serious implications.
One of the facets of Taliban 2.0, as their proponents like to draw a line between the incumbent regime and the one from 90s, is the desire to be a responsible international state, this includes the integration of Afghanistan into the global financial system as well. The entire international financial and intra-state banking systems incorporate interest rate as a core element. Afghanistan direly needs a liquidity injection and for long term, needs to be financed by monetary institutions like IMF or Asian Development Bank.
There is a catch in this arrangement that is yet to be answered. Interest or ‘riba’ is explicitly prohibited in Islam, even deemed as a major sin and equivalent to ‘War against Allah’. The Taliban aim to establish an Islamic Emirate in Afghanistan oriented strictly around the principles and rulings defined by Shariah. It has been a major source of motivation for the group in their protracted war against the United States. Unlike the past where the group managed to justify the narco money to finance their war, also deemed haram or prohibited in Islam, it would be very difficult to convince the rank and file regarding interest/riba that is explicitly prohibited in Quran.
There is no precedence or even a semblance of a coherent economic policy during their previous tenure. They never were in a position to mull over matters of secondary significance because of the encroaching northern alliance and eventually bombed out of power by the United States. Hence, it is hard to analyse the economic future of the country utilising available data. Saudi Arabia is the only state that strongly adheres to the Shariah law, yet interest is a part of its financial system. But the political system of both Saudi Arabia and contemporary Afghanistan do not have enough similarities where parallels could be drawn. On one hand, there’s an all powerful monarchy where the word of the king, or crown-prince lately, is the law. While on the other, the structure of Taliban is not as centralised and the local commanders wield a lot of power. Quran and other sources of Islam constitute a code of life which they have been strictly adhering to for decades. Taliban fighters are the followers of Hanafi/Deobandi school of thought, a sect that is particularly hard on the issue of interest/riba.
Given the precarious state of security in the country, it might not seem significant right now but the Taliban need to consider formalising an economic plan, that is if they manage to survive as government. There is a strong likelihood of a massive spillover of fighters to IS-K if Taliban secure loans from international lenders or even states on a certain interest rate. IS-K has accused the Taliban regime of betraying the religion in letter and spirit and this could be a really big nail in the coffin of the group, if not the final.