Met Office revises rainfall estimates

LAHORE – Continuous activity of westerly wave is not allowing incursions of monsoon currents from Bay of Bengal to properly settle and energise, causing less rainfall at peak of monsoon, the experts say.
The prevailing weather pattern is likely to cause meteorological department to revise estimates of rainfall – from actual above normal to below normal for the ongoing monsoon.
“Active westerly wave is not allowing easterly to settle in. Continuous activity of westerly is causing repulsive effects on incursions from Bay of Bengal and there is no significant rainfall anywhere on the monsoon belt beyond Indian Assam and Guwahati. As such westerly has pushed incursions from Bay of Bengal to eastern corner,” said meteorological expert Shaukat Ali Awan, adding, less rainfall than expectation at the peak of monsoon would cause the department to revise estimates for the current rainy season. He said that though August normally get more rains than July, the overall rainfall in monsoon would not be as per the actual estimates of above normal.
“Even more rains in August will not bring the overall rainfall to above normal. The prevailing situation suggests that overall monsoon rainfall this year will be below normal,” he said, adding, this was all due to activity of westerly wave and some other factors.  “Cyclones in Bay of Bengal usually give good rainfall for a prolonged period over monsoon belt. This is not happening at this stage due to repulsive effect caused by westerly wave and lack of warming of seawater,” Shaukat Awan said, adding, the entire monsoon belt including parts of the country received above normal rainfall for last two consecutive years. But this never happened for three consecutive years. As such, he said, as per the previous trends there would be less rains this monsoon. He said that weak incursions from Bay of Bengal have made weather oppressive by causing considerable increase in humidity.
“There are less rains as incursions are not reaching to a saturation value due to activity of westerly wave. These are only making weather oppressive by increasing humidity,” he said.
Meanwhile, parts of the country including the City remained in the grip of sultry weather on Sunday with experts predicting the prevailing conditions to persist during the next 24 hours.
High humidity and lack of rains and winds made the weather oppressive, causing the Lahorites to sweat profusely throughout the day.  On Sunday, maximum and minimum temperature in the City was recorded 37 degree Celsius and 29 C respectively. Relative humidity in the evening was recorded 58pc.
Lahore canal, as usual, attracted a large number of people including women and children. Not only youth but also elderly people were seen bathing in the canal water. At certain places, even women were seen beating the heat by taking a dip in the mud-coloured canal water.
According to the experts, seasonal low lies over Balochistan and its adjoining areas with trough extending eastwards.
Local meteorological department has forecast mainly hot and humid weather for most parts of the country including the City during the next 24 hours.
 Met office has forecast rain/thundershower at isolated places of Rawalpindi, Gujranwala, Lahore, Hazara divisions and Kashmir.

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