A report released by the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) has highlighted some concerning facts regarding the TTP and other terror groups that continue to operate in Afghanistan. The report of the UNSC 1988 Taliban sanctions has particularly underscored that fact that the TTP has benefited the most among militant groups following the departure of US forces. This of course is something that had been pointed out by other experts as well considering how there was some alignment of goals between the TTP and Afghan Taliban under the US occupation, and the fact that the TTP has found it easier to operate with the Afghan government’s attention focused on countering Daesh.
Over the past year, the TTP has conducted numerous attacks and operations in Pakistan, and estimates suggest that the group consists of 3,000 to 4,000 armed fighters located along the east and south-east Afghanistan-Pakistan border areas. It is also important to point out that the group has been recently reinvigorated through the return of 17 splinter groups into its fold. There is an ongoing ideological purity contest among the groups operating in Afghanistan and some have argued that adopting a hardline stance against Pakistan would help in maintaining unity in its ranks.
This of course raises questions regarding the current round of talks between the Pakistani government and the TTP. The previous two rounds eventually broke down after ceasefire agreements were violated by the group, and this time around it remains to be seen if the results will be any different. Of course, there is no harm in pursuing talks and buying time but given how things have played out in the past, skepticism is valid about whether the TTP can be considered as a reliable actor.
The report also revealed that Al Qaeda still maintains a presence in Afghanistan and that it has taken advantage of the US withdrawal to attract new recruits and funding. In fact, it is being claimed that the group leadership continues to have ties with the new government in Afghanistan, and that its core leadership—including Emir Aiman Muhammed Rabi al-Zawahiri—continues to reside in the country as well.
These revelations coupled with reports of internal rifts within the Afghan Taliban paint an extremely concerning picture regarding what is taking place on the ground. There is little confidence in the Afghan government’s capability and will to clamp down on militant groups that are not directly opposing its rule. Moreover, the reports regarding Al Qaeda will further add to the international community’s apprehensions when it comes to engaging with the Taliban government. This is clearly a regional challenge and threat that must be addressed and tackled before Afghanistan once again goes back to becoming a hotbed of terror groups.
Over the past year, the TTP has conducted numerous attacks and operations in Pakistan, and estimates suggest that the group consists of 3,000 to 4,000 armed fighters located along the east and south-east Afghanistan-Pakistan border areas. It is also important to point out that the group has been recently reinvigorated through the return of 17 splinter groups into its fold. There is an ongoing ideological purity contest among the groups operating in Afghanistan and some have argued that adopting a hardline stance against Pakistan would help in maintaining unity in its ranks.
This of course raises questions regarding the current round of talks between the Pakistani government and the TTP. The previous two rounds eventually broke down after ceasefire agreements were violated by the group, and this time around it remains to be seen if the results will be any different. Of course, there is no harm in pursuing talks and buying time but given how things have played out in the past, skepticism is valid about whether the TTP can be considered as a reliable actor.
The report also revealed that Al Qaeda still maintains a presence in Afghanistan and that it has taken advantage of the US withdrawal to attract new recruits and funding. In fact, it is being claimed that the group leadership continues to have ties with the new government in Afghanistan, and that its core leadership—including Emir Aiman Muhammed Rabi al-Zawahiri—continues to reside in the country as well.
These revelations coupled with reports of internal rifts within the Afghan Taliban paint an extremely concerning picture regarding what is taking place on the ground. There is little confidence in the Afghan government’s capability and will to clamp down on militant groups that are not directly opposing its rule. Moreover, the reports regarding Al Qaeda will further add to the international community’s apprehensions when it comes to engaging with the Taliban government. This is clearly a regional challenge and threat that must be addressed and tackled before Afghanistan once again goes back to becoming a hotbed of terror groups.
