Currently, all signs indicate that Israel’s invasion of Lebanon is not proceeding as planned. Reports from the border region reveal that the Israeli Occupation Forces (IOF) have made minimal progress within Lebanon’s borders—falling short of their stated objective to reach the Litani River—while also suffering considerable losses in personnel and equipment. Israel’s goal to disarm Hezbollah has also faltered. While Israel managed to assassinate senior Hezbollah leaders, the party’s military strength remains resilient, and the persistent bombardment of Lebanon, from Beirut to the historic city of Tyre, has only strengthened Lebanese resolve against Israel.
Preliminary reports from Israel suggest it may be considering abandoning its invasion, having failed to secure its objectives. Though this may offer some relief to those who hoped to see a check on Israel’s aggressive regional stance, the conflict is far from over. Israel continues to target civilian infrastructure with relentless airstrikes, holding the capability to devastate Lebanon further.
However, Israel may face more limitations in Lebanon than in Gaza. France, previously a consistent supporter of Israel, appears to have cooled its stance, especially concerning Lebanon—a territory France has historically viewed as within its sphere of influence. French President Emmanuel Macron’s initiative to raise over 1 billion euros for Lebanon, including pledges toward civilian recovery and military aid, could be seen as a repudiation of Israel’s actions.
Nevertheless, given NATO’s close ties, it is also essential to consider the possibility of coordinated efforts behind the scenes. A long-standing NATO-Israeli strategy has sought to incite “sovereignists” and opposition groups within Lebanon to challenge Hezbollah, potentially drawing the country into a civil war – as it had done so in the past many times. The U.S. government has explicitly assured Lebanese dissidents of financial, material, and military support should they attempt to counter Hezbollah’s influence.
In light of these developments, France’s aid—particularly its military support which might end up going to these “sovereignist”—warrants careful scrutiny. Without an arms embargo or sanctions on Israel, European aid may ultimately prove superficial, offering limited relief amidst extensive suffering. True commitment to peace requires concrete action: a prohibition on arms sales, meaningful sanctions, and robust diplomatic pressure to ensure that aid is more than a fleeting gesture, and that lives are spared in the process.