As the momentous US drawdown commences, Pakistan’s 2,640-km-long Afghan border fence, now over 90 percent complete, is going to become another milestone achievement in its fight against terrorism, and a landmark addition to its hard-power deterrent after its most robust nuclear, missile programmes, the indigenous Al-Zarrar, Al-Khalid, Burraq, JF-Thunder projects, midget Agosta-class submarine development and strategic CPEC construction. It is history going to be made, which is likely to usher in a new era of peace, prosperity and regional economic development.
In the post-9/11 environment, Pakistan faced three directional challenges to its security; one, the collaborative threat from its western border; two, the seaward threat to Karachi and coastal line up to Gwadar and beyond; three, the internal threat focused on erstwhile FATA, Gilgit-Baltistan, and Balochistan. With the at-a-time building of all the four projects and acquisition of indigenously evolved multi-threat control capabilities, Pakistan has flabbergasted the world, that too amidst the over two-decade-long most arduous WOT, three devastating earthquakes, four ravaging floods and most abnormal circumstances emerging out of the coronavirus pandemic 2020-21. This was despite the ‘well-wishers’ thought that its east-concentrated reserve or strike corps will have to be shifted to the western side thus creating defence imbalance.
The fence on the 1,640-mile-long own side of border land passes through rugged mountains, densely forested valleys and narrow rock passages. Now, it needs only a month’s time to complete. The work on this $500 million project, which started in March 2017 and despite disruptions caused by various reasons including the pandemic, never stopped. The barrier consists of two sets of chain-link fences, separated by a 2-meter (6 feet) space filled with concertina wire coils. The fence is 3.6-meter-high (11 feet) on Pakistan’s side and 4-meter-high (13 feet) on the Afghan side. It is fitted with surveillance cameras, infrared detectors and supportive gadgets. Nearly 1,000 forts are being constructed to increase its security; cross-border movement will only be allowed through 16 formally designated crossing points after the completion of this project.
Since 2007, the Pakistan military has carried out countless kinetic operations, including Zarb-e-Azb and Radd-ul-Fassad, aimed at rooting out terrorists; yet the unfavourable border conditions undermined security gains made through the operations. The terrorists kept fleeing to the other side of the border, only to come back again with added lethality. More intriguingly, Kabul has been habitually blaming Islamabad for terror incidents occurring inside Afghanistan. Adding fuel to the fire, it has been accusing Pakistan of providing sanctuaries to terrorists belonging to other nations.
Despite vociferous denials, nobody cared to believe. Moreover, manning such a long, rugged, difficult border was practically impossible, which led to understanding of the actual design working behind, and a greater realisation amongst Musharraf-led strategists that the only way to make the anti-terrorist campaign a success was to build a fence, no matter how gigantic and difficult. In reality, there exists no border dispute as the current demarcation is considered to be the official one as Pakistan being the successor state to British India inherited it as an international frontier. Major General Shaukat Sultan, then DG ISPR, rightly stated in an interview: “The two countries (Pakistan and Afghanistan) exist side by side, since 1947; there is no Durand Line, it is finished. As far as we are concerned, it is a story of the past. There is just the Pakistan-Afghanistan border.”
Islamabad invited Kabul as well as the US to join hands together and help build the historic fence, but instead a tirade against was unleashed, aimed at aborting the plan. However, unmoved, Pakistan kick started the fence, which made it harder for terrorists to infiltrate, attack or evade efforts to prevent attacks. The ratio of attacks from the Afghan side fell from 82 in 2019 to 11 in 2020. During the first half of 2020, at least 1,213 civilians were killed and another 1,744 injured in 880 incidents. This figure was double even triple when fencing hadn’t been built.
Now, if the border is tightly sealed, it is going to benefit the American drawdown and its troops’ security. Much to the relief of President Biden, the fence may play a major role in the safe and smooth eviction from a country that is regarded as ‘dangerous for invaders’ and as ‘graveyard of empires’. The fencing not only invalidates the false notion of so-called ‘strategic depth’, but also supplements Pakistan’s peaceful problem-solving approach. Building a wall means no ‘aggressive or expansionist’ design, rather to have a defensive deterrence approach, and that the policy of non-interference and peaceful coexistence is the hallmark of Quaid’s vision Pakistan. Not only has the inflow of terrorists, traffickers and smugglers decreased, but an unequivocal message has also been sent across that no criminal, terrorist or smuggler should ever cross into Afghanistan and back to fetch a “pre-ready Pakistan-specific blame”. And that there exist no terrorist havens or criminal sanctuaries which may export troubles and put Pakistan into further quagmire.
Kabul’s usual anti-Pakistan tirade and strategic-depth rhetoric get tinted as the dividends of fencing start appearing. The US-Taliban talks, intra-Afghan dialogue and the US-Kabul recognition of Pakistan’s major contribution towards garnering peace have been validated through result-oriented Doha talks, Zalmay Khalilzad’s frequent Islamabad-Rawalpindi visits, Mullah Baradar-led Afghan-Taliban delegation’s arrival in Islamabad and powerful Afghan leader Abdullah Abdullah’s landmark visit to Pakistan at the head of a powerful delegation. Besides active diplomacy in pursuance of peace, much of the credit goes to the unprecedented fencing initiative; those who had opposed it at the outset, now endorse the border as legitimate. Pakistan’s border control and management now exists as a special task to accomplish as its effectiveness will also guarantee security to the China Pakistan Economic Corridor project, which is pivotal to future prosperity of the region.
The post-withdrawal scenario doesn’t seem to be tilting to the region’s favour as the current Kabul regime is more inclined to giving a replacing space to India. The answer to who is going to control Kabul after the exit and whether the power sharing formula would work in the war-ravaged neighbourhood is yet to come to fore, maybe very soon. Pakistan has shown its non-interference by building the wall and thus rejecting any strategic depth myth; it is however advisable for Indians or the powers to aspire that they must keep in mind lessons of history. Mere agreements or accords do not assure stability or peace, but the understanding as well as the will for the wellbeing. One will have to keep in mind not just Afghanistan, but regional stakeholders like Iran, Russia, China and central Asian states.
Hard power deterrent is only a milestone achievement, the real test lies ahead i.e. of very vibrant offensive-defence diplomacy, keeping the house in order, clearing the mess of extremism, militancy and terrorism from the country including the Balochistan province, and paving the way for safe and smooth functioning of CPEC on China-Gwadar routes or beyond. The natural border delineation has to be formally agreed upon, preferably with consensus garnered through the international community, sooner the better. Secondly, Kabul will have to be engaged to understand the importance of fencing and cooperate in border management for containing cross-border infiltration. Pakistan’s rationale refers to proponents of fencing projects which state that such projects are part of wider border management systems globally considered as extremely important for safeguarding a country’s frontier. Thirdly, the focus needs to be shifted to economic activity for the uplift of the country that is the need of the hour.