Energy plays a vital role in the development of a country. A country’s progress is also estimated by its energy demand and consumption. At present, Pakistan has an installed generation capacity of about 37,500MW. The minimum total demand at present is about 24,000MW whereas the maximum total demand in summers is enhanced to nearly 29,000MW. The country’s transmission and distribution capacity, however, is only approximately 22,000 MW. This results in hours of electricity outages in the hot summer months. Besides that, over 50 million people are not connected to the national grid and don’t have access to electricity. An unrelated but major problem that has plagued Pakistan’s power sector besides distribution capacity is the cost of electricity production.
Energy production in a country must be affordable, reliable and continuous and should be without emission of greenhouse gases to mitigate climate change. There are many sources of energy. If we examine Pakistan’s energy mix, we can have a clear idea of where the action is needed to obtain cheaper, continuous, and green energy. At present, the energy mix of Pakistan is 64 percent fossil (gas-38 percent, oil-16 percent, coal-10 percent), 26 percent hydropower, 6 percent nuclear, and 4 percent renewable (solar, wind). In Pakistan, fossil fuel consumption is disproportionally high. Secondly, the use of imported gas and oil has enhanced the cost of electricity production manifold. Third, the cost of electric power generation plants operating on fossil fuels emits a lot of greenhouse gases.
It has also been realised by many international agencies such as the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) that the energy source of a country has to be reliable and continuous. During the pandemic or any other similar situation, the uninterrupted supply of energy is also an essential factor for the security of a country.
The logical solution for these problems is nuclear power. It has many advantages over other sources of energy. It is a mature and reliable technology. It ensures a continuous supply of energy and is also cost-effective besides having stringent safety standards and being environmentally friendly.
Nuclear power is one of the best and cleanest energy sources, produced by disintegrating atomic nuclei in a reactor in a controlled manner. The first commercial nuclear power generation started in August 1956 at Calder Hall, United Kingdom by a 50MW reactor. Nuclear power generation picked up very quickly due to its advantages against all other forms of energy production.
Wind energy production uses a large area of land for installation. It uses sulphur hexafluoride gas for coating turbines, which stays for 1300 years in the atmosphere. Solar energy is a good renewable energy source but there is a disadvantage in manufacturing solar panels. They use heavy metals, hydrofluoric acid and nitrogen trifluoride. The nitrogen trifluoride is 1700 times more toxic than carbon dioxide and stays for 100 years in the atmosphere. Another problem is after completing their life span of 12-15 years solar panels need to be disposed of. It is estimated that about 10,000 tons of solar panel waste by 2021 will grow to 800,000 tons by 2040. As solar panels consist of heavy metals, their disposal will cause huge environmental problems.
Pakistan is a country with a population of 2.3 billion and has been striving for energy sufficiency since its inception. The country needs a continuous increase in electricity production to meet the growing demand. To meet the future projected demand of 42,000MW by 2025, mitigation of greenhouse gases and assured continuous and reliable supply, nuclear power generation seems to be the best available technology for the present.
Nuclear power plants have proved that they are essential to maintain energy supply and thus are a very important pillar for the energy security of the country. The greatest advantage of nuclear power plants is that they can provide an uninterrupted supply of electricity for more than a year. With the advent of SMR technology, the running time will also increase and refueling the SMRs every year would not be needed.
Pakistan has to achieve its targets of producing nuclear power of about 16 percent of the energy mix, which is 3,350MW by 2021, 8,800 MW by 2030, and 40,000 MW by 2048. This nuclear power production plan is a part of the Energy Security Plan 2005 given by the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission and approved by the Government of Pakistan. Pakistan is on course to achieving the targets set to obtain nuclear energy for the country. This will also go a long way to ensuring Pakistan’s long-term energy programme.
Dr Syed Javaid Khurshid
The writer is Senior Research Fellow, Centre of International Strategic Studies, Islamabad.