Misgivings Over Elections

Forty countries with 3.2 billion population and $44.2 trillion GDP are heading to the polls in 2024 making it biggest election year in the history. A very con­sequential year is in the mak­ing in terms of electing new leaders to major policy chang­es pertaining to economic, stra­tegic and geopolitical from Washington, DC to Islamabad. Every single nation enjoys the reliability of the system except Pakistan. Misgivings regarding process of elections are owing to the staggering history of un­democratic interventions.

In the latest scenario, evi­dently caretakers in Punjab and Center with their unfathom­able ineligibility are pursuing the agenda of postponement of elections so they can enjoy ex­pensive rides, royally protocols and luxurious overseas trips for few more days but they are oblivious of the fact that they will be first victims of causality, and in case election delays for one day because their perfor­mance is regrettably very poor. Initially in the center, most of the federal ministers were not available to defend their minis­tries then they were warned of thrown out from cabinet if they remained unmoved. Some fed­eral ministers are still strug­gling ineptly with work they have never done while others are in shock in realization of their dreams they never saw. The shallowness of their apti­tude is harrowing, and a bur­den on establishment instead of helping hand. This arrange­ment supplemented the idea that experienced, and tradition­al politicians are irreplaceable.

Unstoppable popularity of Imran Khan is posing a threat to the timely polls. If this is the case then it will mount further with every passing day due to the devastating inflation, lead­ership gap at national level, and weak media strategy of PDM es­pecially PML-N which is thor­oughly relying on the establish­ment for narrative building. In fact, inflation is more popular than Imran Khan. PTI through its dominance on social me­dia have established a percep­tion that Imran Khan is unde­featable electable while situation on ground is considerably differ­ent. Nawaz Shar­if’s vote bank has increased from 2013 onwards whilst he has yet to kick off his cam­paigning this time. Bye-elections in July 2022 were rigged in favour of PTI giv­ing them 15 seats making sure their return to Punjab for stra­tegic goals but popular votes of PDM & independents combined were more than PTI secured, and equation was the same even in the bye-elections held in October 2022. Behaviour of bulk of swing vote base in Paki­stan and the region is missing in which voter cunningly weighs his interests to be looked af­ter, and votes for winning side which is PML-N in the given cir­cumstances. Nawaz cannot have better opportunity to defeat his incarcerated opponent and his crippling to survive party.

Common man is suffering from debilitating inflation, and failing miserably to cope up. Stock exchange is performing well but does not represent the true picture of economy. Situ­ation of liquidity market is ex­tremely perilous mainly due to the highest interest rate, and cessation of the hot cash. Do­mestic and international inves­tors have held their cash flows to weigh the market for transi­tional period. They will invest once they are certain about new government, and policies.

Though the Army Chief has performed a tremendous job in reviving economy. His ten­able commitment was mani­fested in drive to curbing elec­tricity theft and line losses, curtailing smuggling of goods and dol­lar, maintaining ex­change rate, and economic diplo­macy but all will take time to yield the benefits there so a seasoned part­ner is needed to carry for­ward the initiatives as security officials cannot hold the regu­lar meetings with sugar bar­ons, currency exchangers, and businessmen.

Terrorism in election season is a permanent feature in Paki­stan’s case but our valiant forc­es outbraved the challenge ev­ery time. In December 2007, nation lost its most revered leader Mohtarma Benazir Bhu­tto during the polls but politi­cal transition took place.

Pakistan signed MoUs of $35 billion dollars with the Gulf states. The Caretaker PM told journalists at a breakfast of which I was also part that billion dollars’ invest­ment is coming in January but prospects of immediate transac­tion are dim particularly in the post Israel-Palestine war where­in major Middle Eastern allies are swamped into the conflict. Sau­di Crown Prince Muhammad Bin Salman was reached out for stop­over in Islamabad after returning from G20 summit in India but he did not. Reason is obvious from an international partner’s per­spective that engagement with caretakers is a futile exercise in terms of diplomatic and econom­ic endeavours. That too requires a political partner in place to har­ness the initiative of brining for­eign investments in home by Army Chief.

Following factors will en­sure timely elections; Election is compulsion than a choice for country, and more so for Es­tablishment which is running its capital fast from domestic to the international front. Do­mestically, a bigger challenge is to curtail Imran Khan and its party which is being achieved through management of courts, LEAs include NAB, FIA, ACE and Police, and media but in the era of digitalization they cannot sustain pressures for longer period, and eventually will re­vert to restore their credibility. Consequently, keeping Imran in jail for more time will be a hard task due to the procedur­al loopholes in his cases, there­fore, his followers’ onslaught on IHC, and reliance on LHC and Supreme Court will also be increased in coming days. A fa­tigued state apparatus will en­sure new life line, and leverage to the establishment on system after elections. Chief Justice Qazi Faiz Isa is on a drive to re­claim the writ and authority of his office and the institution so will never allow postponement of elections come what may. CEC Sikandar Sultan Raja also thinks his lifetime reputation is at stake now so determined for timely elections, and hinted his resignation in case of delay.

Pakistani officials have re­assured its commitment to the international community for timely polls. According to the Pakistani diplomats in im­portant capitals, they are be­ing told to connect after elec­tions for serious engagements. The US Ambassador, and UK High Commissioner both were told by the chief election com­missioner that elections will be held on time. Diplomats in Islamabad are keen to work with partners with long term mandate. Pakistan secured $3 billion SBA from IMF after as­suring elections. Pakistan also seeks one more bailout for next three years so cannot af­ford to defy her commitment with lender.

Effective political communica­tion and handling was missing by the caretakers on the issues of repatriation of illegal Afghans, and Israel-Palestine war. For­eign diplomats are voicing their concerns with media on repa­triation of Afghan refugees. The media and masses also want to get rid of uncertainty, and hope­lessness for new beginnings. Some estimations are suggest­ing dollar rise in 2024, and it may up to 400-500 if polls de­layed. The absence of political partner to share burden will ex­ert more pressure on the estab­lishment from economic to for­eign front so it should not be trapped by carpetbaggers. Elec­tions, even fabricated, are a sole way forward.

BY SHAHID MAITLA

-- The writer is Islam­abad-based journalist. He can be reached at shahidmaitla@gmail.com