Two political activities are going almost concurrently. One, the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) is busy preparing for the 2013 general elections, and almost every day issuing instructions and procedures for it. Two, the government and its coalition partners are pursuing dialogue with Dr Tahirul Qadri’s Pakistan Awami Tehrik (PAT) about the ECP’s constitution; the PAT leaders have threatened to move the Supreme Court on its composition.
Against this backdrop, Dr Qadri has maintained that appointment of provincial Election Commissioners is unconstitutional and so they need to be scraped. The government delegation that negotiated with the PAT leader did not agree to his demand; however, he has declared that he reserved the right to move the court. If he does so, the ECP will become practically non-functional till the matter is decided by the court; it means that the elections will be postponed till it is settled.
Further, the PPP-led government has opened up a Pandora’s box of the Seraiki province and it is one of the most hotly debated issues in the media. There are conflicting views; the opposition led by the PML-N vehemently opposes the creation of just one province in Punjab. There are voices, even from the treasury benches, saying that government lacks the requisite majority in Parliament for it. The question is: if the government was aware of this (also recently endorsed by President Asif Zardari during a meeting with PPP’s lawmakers from south Punjab in Multan), why did it float the idea of a Seraiki province?
It could be just a “political gimmick” and the PPP government is not serious about it. Its sole purpose is to put the PML-N on the defensive; it also aims to woo away N’s vote bank from the areas designated to form the new province. The PPP leadership hopes that the promise of the new province will tilt the voters in its favour.
Needless to say, the domestic political environment has become sharply divided on this issue; every political party has its own viewpoint. The MQM openly supports it, since it is a PPP ally at the centre and in Sindh. Some analysts maintain that once the province is created, it would move for the division of Sindh.
Nevertheless, it is difficult to predict when the province can be established and whether the federal government whose tenure will end in March is constitutionally empowered to do so. Whatever is the reality, the issue has distracted political parties from election preparations for the time being.
Reverting to the Dr Qadri issue. According to the decision taken at Lahore, the date of the polls will be announced in 10 days. For this purpose, recently a high-level meeting chaired by President Asif Zardari was held; it also discussed the formation of a caretaker government; one has to wait for an announcement. However, it seems that the fears some political pundits have been voicing for quite some time might come true. What will happen if the PAT, or Dr Qadri in his individual capacity, moves a petition in the Supreme Court after the establishment of caretakers citing constitutional violations in the ECP’s formation?
Dr Qadri, with the support of covert internal and external forces, has established his credentials as a strong political force that cannot be ignored; if filed, the Supreme Court will have to entertain his petition. But how long it will take to reach a verdict is anybody’s guess. And it might lead to the reformation of the ECP that will take time. It means that the tenure of caretaker setup may prolonged. It is important to mention that Dr Qadri has already indicated his intentions to go to the court in his Lahore press conference, while the government’s delegation looked on.
It will be for the first time in Pakistan’s history that a democratically-elected government and Parliament will complete its constitutional term. The PPP and the PML-N both claim the credit for it; as a political process, indeed, it is a satisfying experience. However, the PPP coalition government has very little to its credit that it can take to the masses to seek another mandate. Hence, it may create conditions that will delay the polls beyond the stipulated constitutional period. When Dr Qadri landed in Lahore with high-sounding slogans and put forward his demands, it was seen as an attempt to get the polls delayed. He still holds some cards that may well achieve that aim.
On the contrary, the government spokesmen are claiming that the polls will not be delayed; its negotiating team has also rejected the ECP’s dissolution. But it is not clear how the government and political parties will react if Dr Qadri moves the court. It is now imperative that the government should categorically state its position so that the ambiguity haunting the people is eliminated.
The participants, of TV talk shows, representing political parties,  do not talk about manifestoes their parties have chalked out for the progress of Pakistan, betterment of its economy, etc. Their total energy is spent on running down the opponents deriding them. It is high time that they exhibit some maturity by giving a balanced view of the challenges the country is facing, and how their parties intend to overcome them. That will enhance their credibility. Surely, the people will vote for those who have workable solutions to improve their living standards.
The chaos prevailing in the state is creating an uncertainty. External compulsions that are impacting on Pakistan will not go away soon, and need deft and mature handling. Internal security and economic conditions, too, need skilful handling. The political and diplomatic decisions in the national and international arena will need the weight of the entire nation, through their elected representatives, to be effective. An interim setup cannot take lasting and binding decisions.
The fact that those who ruled for five years are scared of facing the masses for having failed to deliver is an indication that they fear that the people would not re-elect them. Nevertheless, they must keep in mind that the nation will not tolerate any delay in the polls.

The writer is a retired brigadier.  Email: arjerral639@hotmail.com