Despite his record as a mediator in conflicts from Azerbaijan and Armenia to Malaysia, Thailand, Pakistan, and India, Donald Trump’s most coveted peacemaking prize—the one he made central to his election campaign—remains out of reach: ending the years-long, devastating war between Ukraine and Russia with a mutually acceptable peace agreement. So far, this has proven an exceptionally difficult challenge.

On one side, European hawks and the lobbyists of the military–industrial complex seem intent on prolonging the war indefinitely, sending more Ukrainian men into its grinding maw while reaping vast profits from the sale of weapons—not just to Ukraine, but across Europe and the United States as a by-product of the conflict. On the other, a war-weary Ukraine longs for peace, while an American public tired of foreign entanglements questions why billions in aid cannot be redirected towards rebuilding their own communities. The core obstacle remains Russia’s entrenched strength.

Despite suffering heavy losses, Moscow continues to wear down Ukrainian forces and believes momentum is firmly on its side. Confident that time and dwindling Ukrainian supplies will deliver greater gains, Russia has walked away from negotiations—even in the face of Trump’s ultimatums. Now, with its forces pressing towards the key strategic city of Pokrovsk as Ukraine’s frontline weakens, the Kremlin’s bargaining position is stronger than ever.

Ego and profit may ensure the war drags on, but any pragmatic realist must acknowledge that unless the goal is to erase Ukraine’s demographics entirely, the only viable path forward is a peace agreement now—one that concedes to Russia the territory it currently demands based on its military advantage. As Trump heads into fresh talks with President Vladimir Putin, it is vital he approaches them with this sobering reality in mind, rather than with the misplaced ambition of trying to dislodge Russia from its commanding perch.